Friday, October 21, 2011

@16:44, 10/20/11 2

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  • TimesPeople recommended a blog post:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Bank Profits Are Shrinking, as They Should - Room for Debate
    The market no longer determines the success or failure of banks.

    Ms. Gelinas correctly concludes that the big banks should shrink and that many if not most of them should fail.  
    Her argument is simply wrong.
    "The financial industry has grown too quickly for more than 25 years. Between the early 1980s and 2007, financial-industry profits more than quadrupled as a share of the nation’s income. Why the financial industry enjoyed this growth is no great mystery. Beginning in the early ’80s, Washington treated the financial industry’s big lenders -- global bondholders -- as a class of investors immune from losses. The phrase “too big to fail” entered the financial press lexicon."
    I am not at all sure that there is such a thing as too rapid growth.
    The way the bankers did it was the problem.  They under priced risk.
    They learned to "game" the rating agencies so that very unstable collateralised debt obligation bonds rated as absolutely secure. They then built great structures of bets on these mislabeled risks and laid off the bets for a fee.  "Too big to fail" entered the lexicon not as a guarantee but as a statement of confidence.  When the Minsky moment came and the bets were called Government was called in to prevent a catastrophic failure of the monetary system.  Those global bond holders are central banks, union pension funds, government retirement funds and other uninsured depositors.  If those funds evaporated as they threatened to do commerce and government would halt in a blizzard of suits.  Until the large depositors and the bond holders can be protected the discipline of the marketplace cannot be allowed.
    Europe is struggling with just this problem.  Greece will not be able to pay its debts.  
    There are two solutions.   They can default or healthier economies can pay those debts and hope for eventual repayment when times are better.  I do think they should prepay.  Interest is a killer.
  • TimesPeople recommended a blog post:
    Oct 19, 2011
    A.D.H.D. Is a Misdiagnosis - Room for Debate
    By making an A.D.H.D. diagnosis, we ignore and stop looking for what is really going on with the child.

    There is something there.  It is far too easy to see it where it is not.
    Testing is required.  Look at the child.
  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Michael Kittle
  • TimesPeople recommended a blog post:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Have Regulations Hurt Bank Profits? - Room for Debate
    If recent rules have brought Wall Street revenue back down to earth, is that healthy or a sign of heavy-handed regulation?
    Yes.  Any effective regulation would be considered heavy handed.
    The banking business was desperately in need of regulation.
    The present level of regulation is almost certainly insufficient.
  • TimesPeople recommended a blog post:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Banks Should Welcome Rules - Room for Debate
    The costs of regulation are trivial relative to the costs of an economic crisis like the recent one.
    This event has not cost the bankers that much.  The cost of effective regulation would be great in that it would prevent a repetition of  the cycle.  The banks will fight.
  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Oct 19, 2011
    parisexpat
  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Rich
  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Oct 19, 2011
    Marie Burns

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