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1
Ian Welsh1 day ago
Climate Gas Increases Accelerating[image: Climate Gas Increases Accelerating]
Who would have expected? All three are accelerating, with Methane the worst.
Now my first reaction was that this was a reaction to Covid restrictions
ending, but if you look at the chart it’s clear that isn’t the case, as the
amount of increase is more than Pre-Covid.
Related:
“Just 26 of 193 countries that agreed last year to step up their climate
actions have followed through with more ambitious plans.”
https://t.co/a8LXccRyoI
— David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) October 26, 2022
This is why I laughed when people heralded Kyoto or P... read more
Remember to vote.
Government will go electric when it can.
2
Ian Welsh3 days ago
The Inflationary Consequences of Friendzoning and Decoupling[image: The Inflationary Consequences of Friendzoning and Decoupling]
During the rise of China and the “One World/Free Trade” period, one good
thing which can be said for offshoring is that it helped reduce inflation.
It, indeed, drove much of the inflation reduction, with most of the rest of
the inflation reduction being concerted efforts to keep wages low, with a
strong assist from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to use methods like
hedonics to pretend that inflation was lower than it actually was.
The new mantra is “friendzoning” — not so much bringing industry back to
the US but... read more
Taxing the rich will fix inflation.
3
Ian Welsh4 days ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 23, 2022[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 23, 2022]
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 23, 2022
by Tony Wikrent
*What is happening in the West Bank right now: a full breakdown *
[Mondoweiss, via Naked Capitalism 10-19-2022]
The past few weeks have witnessed a noticeable intensification of Israel’s
crackdown on Palestinians in the West Bank, targeting both ordinary
civilians in their homes and villages, and armed resistance fighters and
groups.
Simultaneously, armed settlers have been terrorizing Palestinian
communities across the West Bank, often in the pres... read more
The Palestinians have not learned to live in peace.
Religious wars do not end.
4
Open Thread[image: Open Thread]
Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.
Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn
read more
Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
5
Ian Welsh1 week ago
The Adderall Shortage Is Just the First Major Shortage[image: The Adderall Shortage Is Just the First Major Shortage]
People who have read me for a while know that for years I’ve been warning
of prescription drug shortages or even stoppages. Well, now we have one
that’s large enough to have made headlines:
A national shortage of Adderall has left patients who rely on the pills for
attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder scrambling to find alternative
treatments and uncertain whether they will be able to refill their
medication.
The Food and Drug Administration announced the shortage last week, saying
that one of the largest producer... read more
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adderall
Speed.
6
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Avoiding Added Emotional Suffering (Buddha’s Second Arrow)[image: Avoiding Added Emotional Suffering (Buddha’s Second Arrow)]
When I say in this post to imagine something stop and imagine it, or you
won’t get the necessary effect.
First, imagine falling. You catch yourself on your hands, you’re not
seriously injured, but your hands are abraded and you’ve wrenched a muscle
in you back.
Next. Imagine that you fell unavoidably: there was a small bit of ice, but
you were walking carefully and there’s nothing you could have done.
Third: imagine that you were careless. There was an obvious piece of ice,
you weren’t paying attention, and you kn... read more
Consider it done.
7
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Rooming House Policy Positions of Candidates For Toronto Riding University-Rosedale[image: Rooming House Policy Positions of Candidates For Toronto Riding
University-Rosedale]
I live in University-Rosedale, in something which might be considered a
rooming house, though my unit is self-contained (one room plus a small
bathroom with a shower, the main room has a cooking area.) I’ve lived in
rooming houses on and off throughout my life.
I’m putting the candidates policies up mostly so it can be found by people
in my riding, which means it’ll be of little interest to most of my
readers. I promised no editorializing when soliciting these positions and
I’m going to le... read more
There are no limits on the unhoused.
8
Ian Welsh1 week ago
How To Make Peace In Ukraine[image: How To Make Peace In Ukraine]
The Ukraine war is steadily escalating. Strikes on infrastructure, the
Russian mobilization of reserves (Ukraine has already mobilized multiple
times) and increase NATO aid as well as economies stuttering around the
world. Tac-nukes have been put on the table, though not used.
Peace is better than war, but there seems to be no route towards peace. The
Ukrainians have passed a law stating they won’t negotiate while Putin is
leader, both sides think they can win on the battlefield and so more
refugees flood out of Ukraine, more people die, are ra... read more
This plan is a nonstarter.
Russians keep bailing out of Russia.
They will not return.
9
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 16, 2022[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 16, 2022]
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 16, 2022
by Tony Wikrent
*Strategic Political Economy*
*“How We Create–Then Blame–A Viral Underclass” (interview)*
Steven Thrasher [MedScape, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 10-14-2022]
[*TW: Viruses, diseases, public health — are all reality based and have no
respect for the ideologies of neoliberals, conservatives, or libertarians.*]
…viruses give us this map of understanding that there is no distinct me and
distinct you. There’s always this organic material that potential... read more
The other news.
10
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Open Thread[image: Open Thread]
Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts (no Covid or Ukraine.)
Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn
read more
Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
11
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Review of Wolfgang Streeck’s "How Will Capitalism End?”, by Marku52[image: Review of Wolfgang Streeck’s] By Marku52
Streeck’s book “How will Capitalism End” is a collection of essays he wrote
for the New Left Review almost a decade ago. It seems very prescient today.
Much of his points are shared in the introduction, and first few chapters,
and some of the points get repeated. Later chapters involve German
politics, and are less useful to us. I find his idea that without
corrective dialectics, capitalism will die of its own excesses, persuasive
and I will go into more details in this review.
“The fact that capitalism has, until now, managed to out... read more
The U.S. was and is pragmatic.
Attempts at purity are destructive.
Vote.
12
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Covid Variants Continue Immune, Vaccine and Treatment Resistance Evolution[image: Covid Variants Continue Immune, Vaccine and Treatment Resistance
Evolution]
From Salon:
BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are both spreading extremely fast in parts of Europe.
According to Cornelius Roemer, a viral evolution expert at the University
of Basel, the number of BQ.1.1 infections has been doubling every week.
That kind of exponential growth is sure to drive the variant to becoming
dominant globally in short order.
“The degree of immune escape and evasion is amazing right now, crazy,”
Yunlong Richard Cao, an immunologist at Peking University in Beijing, told
Nature this week. Cao... read more
Covid-19 is endemic world wide.
Keep up with the boosters.
13
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Ukraine Is The First Major War Of The "Age of War and Revolution”[image: Ukraine Is The First Major War Of The]
There are periods that tend relatively peaceful, and there are eras of war
and revolution.
Back in 2016 I added a new category, “The Age of War and Revolution”. It’s
now 10 pages long. I added it because it was clear we were transitioning,
and we’ve now hit a marker point: the first major war in the Age.
It’s the first, but it won’t be the last.
Sri Lanka was the first collapse of the Age (related “The Twilight of
Neoliberalism“, a sub-category).
There will be more of those. My money is currently on England (good chance
it won’t be t... read more
War is in no one's interest.
Give some attention to Peter Zeihan.
https://zeihan.com/
14
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Russia Hits Power Infrastructure[image: Russia Hits Power Infrastructure]
Well. Maybe hitting the Crimean bridge was less smart than it seemed.
Krivorozhskaya TPP (Krivoy Rog) – one of the largest and key power plants
in Ukraine – was seriously damaged as a result of a missile attack. There
are serious water and electricity shortages.
— Dr.Snekotron (@snekotron) October 10, 2022
There are two possibilities here:
*It’s a tit-for-tat. *“You hit our key infrastructure, we’ll hit yours and
we can hit harder.” If so, it’s actually a warning from Russia to end the
escalation here.
*It’s “gloves off” time. *Russia has... read more
The axe has not fallen.
"London can take it"
15
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 9, 2022[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 9, 2022]
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 9, 2022
by Tony Wikrent
*The carnage of mainstream neoliberal economics*
*The Expected Financial Crash Is Finally Here *
[Moon of Alabama, via Naked Capitalism 10-4-2022]
Today Yves Smith of *Naked Capitalism* writes about the now Inevitable
Financial Crisis….
The second warning comes from ‘Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini….
The central banks have misdiagnosed the reason for the currently high
inflation rates. They were caused not only by too much stimulus provided by
governments an... read more
The economy is in trouble.
16
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Open Thread[image: Open Thread]
Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. AKA: no Ukraine or Covid.
Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn
read more
Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
17
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Addendum To My Fifteen Points On The Ukraine War[image: Addendum To My Fifteen Points On The Ukraine War]
Decided a little more needed to be added to the post, but email went out
just before I added it, so I’m putting it here.
*Addendum:*
My argument, from the beginning, has always been simple: Russia can
mobilize more men than Ukraine and has reason to do so. Unless they are
weaker internally/China than I think or NATO intervenes more than I think,
they will eventually have a conventional military victory.
Of course, I could be wrong, but nothing which has happened yet has changed
my view. What has happened is that NATO was wi... read more
Ian Welsh is wrong.
18
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Fourteen Points About the Future of the Ukraine War[image: Fourteen Points About the Future of the Ukraine War]
Let’s lay it out.
First: the next two to three months belong to Ukraine. They have the
initiative and new Russian troops will take time to arrive.
Second: Russia is almost certainly mobilizing more than 300K troops, the
bill allowed for one million. The more they mobilize the more training time
will be required; not just because there are more troops but because they
are reaching deeper into reserves to people who have been out for longer.
Third: When enough of those troops reach the front, Russia will stop their
territo... read more
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Russia is not as Welsh imagines.
19
Rationality Is A Process, Not A Conclusion (Nuclear Weapons Edition)[image: Rationality Is A Process, Not A Conclusion (Nuclear Weapons
Edition)]
A lot of mistakes come from assuming rationality means “thinks the same way
I do” rather than “reasons from premises I might not share.”
Left than 1/1000 economists predicted the financial collapse, because they
reasoned from assumptions like “the market is self-correcting” or “housing
prices never go down.” (Sometimes both at the same time, which is rarely
rational.)
Back in 2008 I wrote an article saying the next war w/Russia would be over
Sevastopol/Crimea. I was told by Eurocrats that was impossible,... read more
Victory conditions for Ukraine elude me.
20
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Vaccine And Mask Effectiveness[image: Vaccine And Mask Effectiveness]
I have mostly avoided the vaccine debate, but let’s take a brief pass.
This isn’t because vaccines don’t work.
This doesn’t mean I’m entirely happy with MRNA vaccines, I’m not and I
think there’s some validity to them having negative side-effects. I’m even
more unhappy with the uneven way they were applied, which allowed for Covid
to gain repeated mutations which made vaccines less effective. I personally
would have taken Sputnik-V if it were allowed in my country.
But the vaccines are protective against death and serious illness is
indicate... read more
Nothing so far is totally effective.
We must live with Covid-19.
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