Tuesday, January 17, 2023

@10:48, 1/5/23

|

 

1

Ian Welsh1 day ago
Canadian Housing And Immigration Policy
[image: Canadian Housing And Immigration Policy] So, Canada has done two interesting things in the last couple years to deal with the effects of Covid. The first is let in a lot more immigrants: Canada added more than 431,000 new permanent residents last year, the largest annual increase in its history, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seeks to ease the country’s labor shortages. The new admissions met the 2022 target set by Trudeau’s government and exceeded the prior year’s record of about 401,000 newcomers, according to a release from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada ... read more
 
Ian Welsh is not happy.   As usual.
 
2
Ian Welsh2 days ago
As China Rises, Europe Falls
[image: As China Rises, Europe Falls] Some interesting news in the semiconductor wars: BREAKING: Netherlands firm ASML's stocks have been falling since China's Huawei unveiled a new patent in Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography, confirming the worst fears of the firm's executives who have opposed US restrictions (Motley Fool). — SGM World News (@SGMWorldnews) December 31, 2022 Now, ASML had indeed opposed US restrictions. They said explicitly that in the case of sanctions, China would learn how to make the machines themselves. Europe’s technological lead is being destroyed by followi... read more
 
The Republican party  is foolish.
 
3
Ian Welsh3 days ago
Obvious Predictions For 2023
[image: Obvious Predictions For 2023] *Covid *will not miraculously end. New variants will continue to be born, and they will generally be optimized for immune escape and damage. Hospitals in most countries will continue to be under high strain, because governments will keep pretending Covid is over when it is not and that it doesn’t ravage people’s immune systems. I find this chart of Canada’s Covid experience applies to most countries in spirit. *This will likely be the warmest year on record*, but the coldest year of the rest of your life and if it isn’t, it’ll be in the top 5 o... read more
 
 Ian Welsh is not happy.   As usual.
 
4
Ian Welsh3 days ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 1, 2023
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 1, 2023] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – January 1, 2023 by Tony Wikrent *The dark side* *Dress Rehearsal: Trump’s attempt almost two years ago to undermine the 2020 election reads today like a blueprint drawn for a future autocrat.* Fintan O’Toole, January 19, 2023 issue [The New York Review] To understand the attempted coup that culminated in the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, it is useful to go back to Donald Trump’s immediate response to the election he actually won, in 2016. The head of his transition team, ... read more
 
Iritations . . ,
 
5
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. read more
 
More please.
Sooner is better.     As soon as you can is best.
 
6
Ian Welsh6 days ago
How To Relax, Change & Be Free
[image: How To Relax, Change & Be Free] Jiddu Krishnamurti was a lecturer and teacher for almost 50 years. He was famous, there are a lot of books transcribing his talks, and he maybe got one person enlightened. Jiddu was the anti-guru, guru. He didn’t want to give concrete instructions, because when people follow concrete instructions they aren’t free: they’ve got a system and they’re just enacting the system. Reading him is frustrating. I’ve read his lectures multiple times over the years, and each time understood a bit more of what he was saying. One main point is that everyone... read more
 
Worth a try.
 
7
Ian Welsh1 week ago
A Map Showing The Two Main Geopolitical Blocs
[image: A Map Showing The Two Main Geopolitical Blocs] Yeah, it is mostly this simple: It really is the imperialist West vs. the entire world This is how they voted on a UN resolution calling for a new international economic order based on equity, sovereign equality, and cooperation, opposing unilateral sanctions and advocating for debt relief for the Global South https://t.co/veNO3uMdC5 pic.twitter.com/wy6amH7TUm — Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) December 15, 2022 This is pretty much the map for UN resolutions aimed at Russia, too. As I’ve noted before the bottom line is that if you... read more
 
The governments of the world are not wise.
 
8
Ian Welsh1 week ago
A New Age Of Vertical Integration
[image: A New Age Of Vertical Integration] There was a time when companies preferred vertical integration: they wanted to own their supply chain. Then, for a long time, the mantra was to concentrate on one’s core business and let other specialists take care of all the non-core parts of your business. Well… The reason vertical farming failed is that if you want to do it you also need to control your power source. In a world where civilization is slowly collapsing, you need vertical integration.https://t.co/jXtY1GOKg5 — Ian Welsh (@iwelsh) December 25, 2022 This is no longer viable... read more
 
Supply chains are disturbed.
 
9
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 25, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 25, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 25, 2022 by Tony Wikrent [Twitter, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 12-23-2022] Justin Welby, as Archbishop of Canterbury, was pontificating on Twitter yesterday. I noted he said he said ‘The Magnificat turns the world upside down’. I agree, it does. So trust me, this is all about economics, and why the Church is failing on this key issue. A thread…. — Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) December 23, 2022 The Magnificat turns the world upside down. A young girl in an unknown ... read more
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nullius_in_verba
 
10
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Merry Christmas
[image: Merry Christmas] I hope you’re having a good one, and if you aren’t, consider my thoughts with you, for they are. read more
 
I had a good solstace.
Happy new year.
 
11
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Rather delayed today. Used to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. read more
 
More please.
Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.
 
12
Ian Welsh1 week ago
The Decline Of Facebook (Meta)
[image: The Decline Of Facebook (Meta)] Back in August of this year Cheryl Sandberg stepped down as Chief Operating Officer of Meta, . I’d been keeping a lazy eye of Facebook and Meta for a while: the organization felt sick to me, not in terms of ethics, but in terms of health. Sandberg jumping was a sign: the most important insider other than the founder and CEO leaving. Then, this week: Industry icon John Carmack has announced that he's leaving META. "We have a ridiculous amount of people and resources, but we constantly self-sabotage and squander effort." https://t.co/xl1FQkFYu... read more
 
Facebook is fine.
 
13
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Part III Of My Interview: Twitter and Reasons For Hope
[image: Part III Of My Interview: Twitter and Reasons For Hope] Last of three parts. Here's the final episode of my interview with @iwelsh. In it, we discuss the mess that Twitter has become, and Ian shares what gives him hope. Ian Welsh on Twitter Madness (Part 3 of 3), by @costrike https://t.co/drcygtQ3VC — costrike (@costrike) December 21, 2022 *(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)* read more
 
I did listen to them agree with themselves.
 
14
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
It’s Not Just About Climate Change, It’s About Ecological Collapse
[image: It’s Not Just About Climate Change, It’s About Ecological Collapse] Earthworm Edition: …they estimated a decline in earthworm abundance of between 33% and 41% in the last quarter of a century, the period for which the best data was available… Dr Matt Shardlow, of the charity Buglife, said earthworms were essential to healthy soils and productive ecosystems and the decline in UK earthworm populations – at a rate of about 15% per decade since 1960 – was “deeply alarming”. “Devastated earthworm populations in arable soils are to be expected due to the widespread use of toxic... read more
 
Many things are temperature dependent.
Many others depend on things that are dependent on temperature.
 
15
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Consequences Of The End of Zero Covid In China
[image: Consequences Of The End of Zero Covid In China] Back in November I wrote that China’s Zero Covid policy was the right thing done the wrong way. Briefly after, consequent to some protests against Zero-Covid, China basically abandoned the policy. The main problem is the same that exists in almost every country: even the most competent elites in the world today are, when not graded on a scale, incompetent buffoons incapable of running anything properly. Zero-Covid should have been about making necessary infrastructure changes to clean air so that over time restrictions could b... read more
 
Big numbers beget big numbers.
 
16
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Life In The Absence of Coercion
[image: Life In The Absence of Coercion] On Friday I wrote an article which asked two questions: one about what you’d do if you couldn’t be easily coerced with violence: Imagine that if you chose no physical object could affect you. Bullets don’t work, fists don’t work, no one can grab you or put you in handcuffs, and that’s true of everyone. The second was: What if you didn’t need to eat or drink and you cold and heat didn’t bother you or harm you and you didn’t get sick? You might still want shelter or a home or objects like books or computers, and objects like cosmetics would ... read more
 
Coertion has been less effective recently on me.
 
17
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 18, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 18, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 18, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Strategic Political Economy* *We need the return of the state * [Tax Research UK, via Naked Capitalism 12-14-2022] Neoliberalism is built on lies. For decades the deceit at its core has been ignored because it appeared to deliver prosperity. It does not any more. That is why everything is unravelling. The biggest lie that neoliberalism promotes is that all value is created by private sector business, which claim is contrasted with a claim that gov... read more
 
Alternative news.  
It may increase one's understanding though it is only distantly related to events.
 
18
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use the comments to discuss topics unrelated to the week’s posts. *(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating. )* read more
 
More please.
Sooner is better.  As soon as you can is best.
 
19
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Imagine A World Where Violence Or Need Are Impossible
[image: Imagine A World Where Violence Or Need Are Impossible] There are two main types of coercion in the world. *The first is violence.* If you don’t do what someone else wants, they will do something physical to you. So, imagine if that was impossible. Imagine that if you chose no physical object could affect you. Bullets don’t work, fists don’t work, no one can grab you or put you in handcuffs, and that’s true of everyone. What would change about society if this were true? What would change about how individuals act? *The second is need.* What if you didn’t need to eat or drin... read more
 
Such a world is unstable.
Force appears to work.  
Its application pleases a few twisted individuals.
When there are methods to untwist those individuals the world will be better.

20
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Interview on Climate Change, the New Cold War and the Rise of China
[image: Interview on Climate Change, the New Cold War and the Rise of China] I did an interview few weeks ago with Chris Oestereich, which he’s putting up in three parts. I listened to part three today and, while I rarely say this, I thought it was quite good and if you’re interested in any of these topics, probably worth your while. *(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)* *Listen to the podcast here.* read more
 
Theodore Roosevelt as a boy was advised to speak softly and carry a big stick.
Governments including the U.S. fail to comprehend the U.S. stick.
 
 
 
||

 

Sunday, January 1, 2023

@22:10, 12/30/22

 |

 

1

Ian Welsh13 hours ago
How To Relax, Change & Be Free
[image: How To Relax, Change & Be Free] Jiddu Krishnamurti was a lecturer and teacher for almost 50 years. He was famous, there are a lot of books transcribing his talks, and he maybe got one person enlightened. Jiddu was the anti-guru, guru. He didn’t want to give concrete instructions, because when people follow concrete instructions they aren’t free: they’ve got a system and they’re just enacting the system. Reading him is frustrating. I’ve read his lectures multiple times over the years, and each time understood a bit more of what he was saying. One main point is that everyone... read more
 
 People pair.

2
Ian Welsh2 days ago
A Map Showing The Two Main Geopolitical Blocs
[image: A Map Showing The Two Main Geopolitical Blocs] Yeah, it is mostly this simple: It really is the imperialist West vs. the entire world This is how they voted on a UN resolution calling for a new international economic order based on equity, sovereign equality, and cooperation, opposing unilateral sanctions and advocating for debt relief for the Global South https://t.co/veNO3uMdC5 pic.twitter.com/wy6amH7TUm — Ben Norton (@BenjaminNorton) December 15, 2022 This is pretty much the map for UN resolutions aimed at Russia, too. As I’ve noted before the bottom line is that if you... read more
 
Only one world.
Many religions.
 
3
Ian Welsh3 days ago
A New Age Of Vertical Integration
[image: A New Age Of Vertical Integration] There was a time when companies preferred vertical integration: they wanted to own their supply chain. Then, for a long time, the mantra was to concentrate on one’s core business and let other specialists take care of all the non-core parts of your business. Well… The reason vertical farming failed is that if you want to do it you also need to control your power source. In a world where civilization is slowly collapsing, you need vertical integration.https://t.co/jXtY1GOKg5 — Ian Welsh (@iwelsh) December 25, 2022 This is no longer viable... read more
 
Vertical farming depends on technical civilization.
 
4
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 25, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 25, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 25, 2022 by Tony Wikrent [Twitter, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 12-23-2022] Justin Welby, as Archbishop of Canterbury, was pontificating on Twitter yesterday. I noted he said he said ‘The Magnificat turns the world upside down’. I agree, it does. So trust me, this is all about economics, and why the Church is failing on this key issue. A thread…. — Richard Murphy (@RichardJMurphy) December 23, 2022 The Magnificat turns the world upside down. A young girl in an unknown ... read more
 
Trump is a piker.
 
5
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Merry Christmas
[image: Merry Christmas] I hope you’re having a good one, and if you aren’t, consider my thoughts with you, for they are. read more
 
Happy new year.
 
6
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Rather delayed today. Used to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. read more
 
Sooner is better.   As soon as you can is best.
 
7
Ian Welsh1 week ago
The Decline Of Facebook (Meta)
[image: The Decline Of Facebook (Meta)] Back in August of this year Cheryl Sandberg stepped down as Chief Operating Officer of Meta, . I’d been keeping a lazy eye of Facebook and Meta for a while: the organization felt sick to me, not in terms of ethics, but in terms of health. Sandberg jumping was a sign: the most important insider other than the founder and CEO leaving. Then, this week: Industry icon John Carmack has announced that he's leaving META. "We have a ridiculous amount of people and resources, but we constantly self-sabotage and squander effort." https://t.co/xl1FQkFYu... read more
 
Facebook was never stable.
 
8
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Part III Of My Interview: Twitter and Reasons For Hope
[image: Part III Of My Interview: Twitter and Reasons For Hope] Last of three parts. Here's the final episode of my interview with @iwelsh. In it, we discuss the mess that Twitter has become, and Ian shares what gives him hope. Ian Welsh on Twitter Madness (Part 3 of 3), by @costrike https://t.co/drcygtQ3VC — costrike (@costrike) December 21, 2022 *(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)* read more
 
They mumble and skip their assumptions.
 
9
Ian Welsh1 week ago
It’s Not Just About Climate Change, It’s About Ecological Collapse
[image: It’s Not Just About Climate Change, It’s About Ecological Collapse] Earthworm Edition: …they estimated a decline in earthworm abundance of between 33% and 41% in the last quarter of a century, the period for which the best data was available… Dr Matt Shardlow, of the charity Buglife, said earthworms were essential to healthy soils and productive ecosystems and the decline in UK earthworm populations – at a rate of about 15% per decade since 1960 – was “deeply alarming”. “Devastated earthworm populations in arable soils are to be expected due to the widespread use of toxic... read more
 
Optimized systems are delicate.
 
10
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Consequences Of The End of Zero Covid In China
[image: Consequences Of The End of Zero Covid In China] Back in November I wrote that China’s Zero Covid policy was the right thing done the wrong way. Briefly after, consequent to some protests against Zero-Covid, China basically abandoned the policy. The main problem is the same that exists in almost every country: even the most competent elites in the world today are, when not graded on a scale, incompetent buffoons incapable of running anything properly. Zero-Covid should have been about making necessary infrastructure changes to clean air so that over time restrictions could b... read more
 
Optimized systems are delicate.
 
11 
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Life In The Absence of Coercion
[image: Life In The Absence of Coercion] On Friday I wrote an article which asked two questions: one about what you’d do if you couldn’t be easily coerced with violence: Imagine that if you chose no physical object could affect you. Bullets don’t work, fists don’t work, no one can grab you or put you in handcuffs, and that’s true of everyone. The second was: What if you didn’t need to eat or drink and you cold and heat didn’t bother you or harm you and you didn’t get sick? You might still want shelter or a home or objects like books or computers, and objects like cosmetics would ... read more
 
 
Life is not optimized and so is not delicate.
Be pragmatic.
 
12
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 18, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 18, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 18, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Strategic Political Economy* *We need the return of the state * [Tax Research UK, via Naked Capitalism 12-14-2022] Neoliberalism is built on lies. For decades the deceit at its core has been ignored because it appeared to deliver prosperity. It does not any more. That is why everything is unravelling. The biggest lie that neoliberalism promotes is that all value is created by private sector business, which claim is contrasted with a claim that gov... read more
 
Government should be pragmatic.
There is no ideal toward which to strive beyond equality.
 
13
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use the comments to discuss topics unrelated to the week’s posts. *(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating. )* read more
 
More please.
Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.
 
14
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Imagine A World Where Violence Or Need Are Impossible
[image: Imagine A World Where Violence Or Need Are Impossible] There are two main types of coercion in the world. *The first is violence.* If you don’t do what someone else wants, they will do something physical to you. So, imagine if that was impossible. Imagine that if you chose no physical object could affect you. Bullets don’t work, fists don’t work, no one can grab you or put you in handcuffs, and that’s true of everyone. What would change about society if this were true? What would change about how individuals act? *The second is need.* What if you didn’t need to eat or drin... read more
 
I have tried the experiment.
I am neither a beast or a god.
I am one among others.
 
15
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Interview on Climate Change, the New Cold War and the Rise of China
[image: Interview on Climate Change, the New Cold War and the Rise of China] I did an interview few weeks ago with Chris Oestereich, which he’s putting up in three parts. I listened to part three today and, while I rarely say this, I thought it was quite good and if you’re interested in any of these topics, probably worth your while. *(I am fundraising to determine how much I’ll write this year. If you value my writing and want more of it, please consider donating.)* *Listen to the podcast here.* read more
 
Billions will die.
I will do what I can.
Vote.
 
16
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Long Covid Has Now Disabled Close to 2% Of The US Workforce
[image: Long Covid Has Now Disabled Close to 2% Of The US Workforce] An estimate, but… 2 million to 4 million full-time workers are out of the labor force due to long Covid. (To be counted in the labor force, an individual must have a job or be actively looking for work.) The midpoint of her estimate — 3 million workers — accounts for 1.8% of the entire U.S. civilian labor force. The figure may “sound unbelievably high” but is consistent with the impact in other major economies like the United Kingdom, Bach wrote in an August report. The figures are also likely conservative, since... read more
 
Get vaccinated.
Wearing a mask is a good idea.

17
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
2022 Fundraiser
[image: 2022 Fundraiser] It’s been a tough year for the world and a tough year at Chez Ian (cancer, housing issues, blah.) Personally, I’m just beginning to recover from cancer treatment, though some of it will be ongoing, and sucking, for another six to twelve months. China, deciding to the right thing (Zero Covid) stupid, is now releasing some restrictions and that’s going to go badly. Russia invaded Ukraine, ground forward and will likely wind up with less than it’d like and more than the West wanted. Europe has been the big loser in the Ukraine war, which many of us predicted, ... read more
 
Charity is a private act.
 
18
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *“The People Cheering For Humanity’s End”* [The Atlantic, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 12-8-2022] “From Silicon Valley boardrooms to rural communes to academic philosophy departments, a seemingly inconceivable idea is being seriously discussed: that the end of humanity’s reign on Earth is imminent, and that we should welcome it. The revolt against humanity is still new enough to appear outlandish, but it has already spread beyond the fringes ... read more
 
The Republican party is politically wrong.
 
19
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to this week’s posts. read more
 
More please.
Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.
 
Happy new year.
 
20
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Understanding Absolute Vs. Comparative Advantage
[image: Understanding Absolute Vs. Comparative Advantage] There are two types of advantages. A comparative advantage is when you have or can produce more of something than someone else. (Person, country, whatever.) An absolute advantage is when you have or can do or produce something others can’t. This can be threshold matter: in World War II the Allies had more than enough oil and the Axis didn’t have enough to run their war machine. While in numbers terms it looked like a comparative advantage, it was actually an absolute advantage: it strangled Axis production and their ability... read more

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Diamond#Popular_science_works
A place to start.
https://zeihan.com/
https://zeihan.com/newsletter/
Another view.  A patriotic view.
He has a narrow and short sighted view because of his audience.

I wish you joy.


||