Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Video excerpts of on-air comments by meteorologists, who are more likely than climatologists to question the science of climate change. Whom do you trust when it comes to climate science?

The degree of willful ignorance evident in these comments is just depressing. Weather forecasting deals with short-term changes in measurable data (temperature, pressure, wind speed). In any data set, individual data points may vary greatly (that's why the accuracy of weather forecasts drops below 50% for forecasts more than four days in the future.) Climate is the long-term trend in the same data, and the trend is a product of all the data, not merely the most recent. That's why a couple of cold weeks in the U.S. South aren't proof that global warming is a myth - any more than an unusually warm winter in Canada is evidence in favour. Anthropogenic climate change is now pretty clearly evident in those long-term trends, especially in the period since the mid-19th century, The other significant characteristic of climate change is increased instability in weather patterns - a fact that seems very clear in the last decade. Weather forecasters, especially television personalities, are focused on the immediate data - today's weather, tomorrow's, and the rest of the week. This short-term vision makes them anything but experts on climate and certainly in no way qualified to make judgements about climate change.

Good enough.

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