Saturday, September 10, 2011

09/10/11 thinking

Paul Krugman has been in eastern Europe for a few days.
Obama is moving in the proper direction.  Confrontation must have really hurt him at some point.  He is not for it.

Krugman:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/the-peasants-are-revolting/
"And more to the point: by blaming democracy, the people who have gotten everything wrong are letting themselves off the hook. The elites on both sides of the Atlantic have messed up catastrophically, and need to face that fact."
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/06/treasuries-tips-and-gold-wonkish/
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/golden-cyberfetters/
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/are-other-commodities-like-gold-quick-and-wonkish/

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/09/trivial-secrets/
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/09/opinion/setting-their-hair-on-fire.html?ref=opinion
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/09/opinion/setting-their-hair-on-fire.html?ref=opinion
http://www.palgrave-journals.com/eej/journal/v37/n3/full/eej20118a.html
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/09/annals-of-conference-planning/
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/10/starkness-falls/

"Did the euro just enter its death throes?
OK, I know that sounds over the top, and I hope it is. But recent developments are really, really bad."
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/08/wonking-out-about-the-euro-crisis-very-wonkish/
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/10/1919-and-all-that/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-09/keynes-schumpeter-and-the-great-post-war-mistake-sylvia-nasar.html
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/10/golden-spikes/
" DeLong gets it in a nutshell:
On this interpretation gold is and always has been a super Treasury bond: a very long duration asset that is or at least is perceived to be “safe” in the sense that its price does not trade at a discount (due to risk and default premia) from a Treasury bond of the same duration but instead trades at a premium.
And this means that it is deeply, deeply wrong to think of rising gold prices when bond yields are low as some kind of symptom of monetary excess."

Hmm -
When the interest rate is very low the price of gold will rise to pay the cost of storage, sale, and replacement.  Beyond that there is bubble pricing.
When there is a significant real interest rate the price of gold will fall. 
If the interest rate is not real (inflation) the price of gold will rise.
Gold at these prices is a terrible trap.  If you are holding any as an investment you should sell at the first signs of real recovery.  That will be very near the peak.  As a guess that will be when the mortugage market restarts.  Rates will rise and stay up. 

And that is where that is.  Monday should be interesting. 


I am trying to think on design.
I am not making a great deal of progress on my search for things that sell themselves.  I don't know how to analyse food.  There is a lot of fashion and novelty as well as simple hunger and early training.  Culture is very dominant throughout.  We do see the merritt in african, melinesian and Austrailian native works.  Retail is a set of those things that can be sold.
Any arbitrary grouping may or may not include those "things that sell themselves".
Consider people. 
I know that slavery is impermissable and legal ownership of persons is criminal. (an argument against the rights of corporations!)
Bonds do form between people.
How much is hard wired and how much is voluntary and how much is cultural trapping I do not know.  I am very curious to know which and how much.

Bonds form with institutions.

Bonds form with places.

Bonds form with things.

Bonds form with ideas.

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