Wednesday, May 1, 2019

@8;40, 5/1/19

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ADP: Private Employment increased 275,000 in April

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 14 minutes ago
From ADP: *Private sector employment increased by 275,000 jobs from March to April* according to the April ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. ... “April posted an uptick in growth after the first quarter appeared to signal a moderation following a strong 2018,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “The bulk of the overall growth is with service providers, adding the strongest gain in... more » 
 
I is spring.  The seasonals are back.
 

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Latest Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 hour ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 4.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 26, 2019. ... The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week. *The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier*. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was *1 percent higher than the same week one year ago* . ... “Mortgage rates... more » 
 
Noise?
 
3
 
NICK CORASANITI and ASTEAD W. HERNDON at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago
As income inequality becomes a central issue for Democrats, two plans offered by Senators Cory Booker and Kamala Harris offer a proxy of the battle between them.
 
Paying for child care is a better plan.
 

On Politics: Mueller Objected to Barr’s Description of His Findings

NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
Mr. Mueller’s letter in March is another sign of his team’s anger toward Mr. Barr, whose initial statement let President Trump claim to have been vindicated.
 
Barr cannot admit error, his or Trump's.
 

Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Mfg Survey, Construction Spending, FOMC Announcement

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 7 hours ago
Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the *mortgage purchase applications index*. • At All day: *Light vehicle sales* for April. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 17.0 million SAAR in April, down from 17.5 million in March (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). • At 8:15 AM: The *ADP Employment Report* for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 180,000 payroll jobs added in April, up from 129,000 added in March. • At 10:00 AM: *ISM Manufacturing Index* for April. The co... more » 
 
More trailing indicators.
 

The Big Wet Venezuelan Coup Flop

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 8 hours ago
Well, it seems to have gone pretty much nowhere. A big flop. Far from being a dictator, Maduro appears to be in running for the most forgiving person in power on the planet. A dictator would have had Guiado shot; a normal politican would have had him arrested for treason by now. Remember when the […]
 
Venezuela is a sovereign nation.
 

Congressional Democrats’ Lawsuit Examining Trump’s Private Business Can Proceed, Federal Judge Says

SHARON LaFRANIERE at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
The decision is at least a temporary victory for the president’s critics who say he is willfully flaunting constitutional bans.
 
The house is being effective.
 

Mueller Objected to Barr’s Description of Russia Investigation’s Findings on Trump

MARK MAZZETTI and MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
The special counsel laid out his objections in a letter to the attorney general in March.
 
Barr lies on command. 
 

Trump, Seeking to Put Pressure on Maduro, Threatens a Full Embargo on Cuba

KATIE ROGERS at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, said in an interview with CNN that Mr. Maduro had planned to flee to Cuba on Tuesday, but was urged by the Russian government to stay.
 
Venezuela is a sovereign nation.
 
10 

Is the Muslim Brotherhood a Terrorist Group?

DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
President Trump wants to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization. The group says it isn’t, an assessment that many experts share.
 
The Muslim Brotherhood is a political party. 
 
11 

Sanders and Biden Circle Each Other, Using Different Rules of Engagement

JONATHAN MARTIN at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
Mr. Biden is trying to stay above the intraparty fray, invoking his years with Obama. Mr. Sanders is taking direct aim at the former vice president.
 
Neither is the candidate.
 
12 

Gingerly, Democrats Give ‘Medicare for All’ an Official Moment

MARGOT SANGER-KATZ at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
The proposal gets its first congressional hearing. Another one is coming soon.
 
It is time to do it.
 
13 

As Trade Talks Continue, China Is Unlikely to Yield on Control of Data

ANA SWANSON at NYT > Politics - 14 hours ago
Negotiations appear to have done little to resolve an emerging rivalry over data that the tech industry says is key to industries of the future.
 
This trade deal will not advance. 
 
14 

As Trump Family Sues to Block Subpoenas, Democrats Ponder Impeachment

GLENN THRUSH and NICHOLAS FANDOS at NYT > Politics - 14 hours ago
A series of Trump family lawsuits to block House subpoenas has left Democrats steaming, and again talking about impeaching the president for obstruction of justice.
 
Congress has the right of it. 
 
15 

Moore’s Shot at the Fed Teeters as G.O.P. Senators Voice Concerns

EMILY COCHRANE and JIM TANKERSLEY at NYT > Politics - 14 hours ago
Stephen Moore’s chance to be confirmed to the Federal Reserve dwindled after multiple Republican senators began to publicly question whether he would have enough votes if nominated.
 
Moor should not be on the Fed.
 
16 

What Joe Biden Has Said About Anita Hill Over the Years

MATT STEVENS at NYT > Politics - 14 hours ago
Mr. Biden said this week that he takes “responsibility” for the way Ms. Hill was treated when she testified in the 1991 hearings for Justice Clarence Thomas.
 
Justice Clarence Thomas is on the Supreme Court.
 
17
  

Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in March

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 14 hours ago
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was decreased to 0.74% in March, from 0.76% in February. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.16% in March 2018. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. This matches is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since August 2007. [image: Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent Rate]*Click on graph for larger image* *By vintage*, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (3% of port... more » 
 
Some straws mean more than others.  
 
18

Ex-C.I.A. Officer Suspected of Conspiring With China Is Expected to Plead Guilty

JULIAN E. BARNES at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
The former officer was suspected of helping China dismantle the C.I.A.’s network of informants in that country, officials said.
 
The CIA is hiding its mistakes.
 
19 

Trump Wants to Block Deutsche Bank From Sharing His Financial Records

DAVID ENRICH at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
President Trump and Deutsche Bank had a long, symbiotic relationship. Now, Mr. Trump is racing to prevent the bank from sharing his financial information with Congress.
 
Deutsche Bank must answer the congressional supoena.
 
20 

Trump and Democrats Agree to Pursue $2 Trillion Infrastructure Plan

ANNIE KARNI, EMILY COCHRANE and ALAN RAPPEPORT at NYT > Politics - 18 hours ago
After a meeting of “good will” at the White House, the leaders will gather again in three weeks to discuss how to actually pay for the ambitious project.
 
Trump will not allow the bill to be paid.
 
 
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