Tuesday, May 7, 2019

@23:00, 5/6/19



1

How Chinese Spies Got the N.S.A.’s Hacking Tools, and Used Them for Attacks

NICOLE PERLROTH, DAVID E. SANGER and SCOTT SHANE at NYT > Politics - 53 minutes ago
The latest case of cyberweapons escaping American control raises questions about the United States’ expensive and dangerous digital arsenal.
 
People are much the same.
 

‘I’ve Battled,’ Tiger Woods Says as He Accepts Presidential Medal of Freedom

KATIE ROGERS at NYT > Politics - 53 minutes ago
President Trump offered the honor to Mr. Woods soon after the golfer won the Masters last month for his 15th major championship — and his first in almost 11 years.
 
Ok
 

Steven Mnuchin Refuses to Release Trump’s Tax Returns to Congress

ALAN RAPPEPORT at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
Mr. Mnuchin said that the request “lacks a legitimate legislative purpose.”
 
As expected. 
 

Trump Embraces the Traditional Fund-Raising He Once Shunned

ANNIE KARNI and MAGGIE HABERMAN at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
“I don’t need anybody’s money,” Mr. Trump said after announcing his candidacy in June 2015. He does not say that anymore.
 
Free money
 

Federal Reserve Warns as Risky Corporate Debt Exceeds Peak Crisis Level

JEANNA SMIALEK at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
Defaults on the loans — known as leveraged lending — remain low, but the Fed warned that could change if the economy faltered.
 
Risk is under priced.
 

On Politics With Lisa Lerer: What Does ‘Electability’ Mean in the 2020 Race? Here Are 5 Theories

LISA LERER at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
In the On Politics newsletter: Nearly every candidate can stake a claim as the most electable. It just depends on how you think the election will be won.
 
Primaries and conventions answer these questions.
Campaigns ask them before the primaries. 
 

Inaugural Official Disputes White House Account of Her Departure

MAGGIE HABERMAN and BEN PROTESS at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
Stephanie Winston Wolkoff, a former adviser to the first lady who played a key role in planning President Trump’s inaugural festivities, said she was “thrown under the bus.”
 
The crowd was small. 
 

Tuesday: Job Openings

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 3 hours ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Lowest Mortgage Rates in a Month Mortgage rates dropped noticeably this morning as financial markets opened sharply changed from Friday's latest levels thanks to Trump trade tweets over the weekend. The stock market dropped to its lowest levels in several weeks before bouncing back as the day progressed. As money flew out of stocks, it found a safe haven in the bond market. Mortgage rates are most directly affected by the bond market, and when demand for bonds increases, rates fall. The average lender was offering its best rates in roughly... more » 
 
Wages have been slow to move.
 

United States Rattles Arctic Talks With a Sharp Warning to China and Russia

SOMINI SENGUPTA at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking in Finland at a meeting of the Arctic Council, warned both countries against “aggressive” actions in the region.
 
Trump has not progressed beyond gunboats.
 
10 

One Million Species At Risk of Extinction + One

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 5 hours ago
So, you’ve probably seen all the articles about the UN report which finds that one million species are at risk of extinction, out of the 8.7 million species we believe exist. That’s more than 10%. The key thing that tends not to be emphasized in this is that ecosystems are chains, or complex webs of […]
 
The existential crisis is not yet obvious to all.
 
11 

Trump Advisers Accuse China of Reneging on Trade Commitments

ANA SWANSON and KEITH BRADSHER at NYT > Politics - 7 hours ago
A trade war that seemed to be on the brink of ending now appears likely to be prolonged as President Trump threatens to impose more tariffs on China.
 
Trump should learn to read.
 
12 

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 35% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 7 hours ago
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. Lumber prices declined from the record highs in early 2018, and are now down about 35% year-over-year. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through April 26, 2019 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures. [image: Lumcber Prices]*Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.* Right now Random Lengths prices are down 31% from a year ago, and CME futures are down 40% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring... more » 
 
Development is not as rosey as the mills thought.

13

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to Rally for Green New Deal in Washington

ASTEAD W. HERNDON at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
Ms. Ocasio-Cortez has long aligned herself with Sunrise Movement, the young activists pressuring Democrats to act boldly to address climate change.
 
The primary campaigns have started.
 
14 

When will I make another "Big" economic call?

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 10 hours ago
A short note: Over the years, I've made several significant economic calls. For example, I predicted a recession in 2007, a recovery in 2009 (link is first in a series of posts), the top for housing prices in early 2006 and the bottom for housing prices in early 2012. I do not have a crystal ball, and I've missed some calls - but by watching the data closely, I've been pretty lucky overall. Sometimes people ask me when I'll make another call. I don't know; I'm very data dependent! But I was wondering if these count? Back in December 2015, I wrote The Endless Parade of Recession C... more » 
 
CR likes being right.  He will wait for the data.
 
15 

Trump Denies Democrats His Tax Returns and Prepares for a Contempt Showdown

NICHOLAS FANDOS and ALAN RAPPEPORT at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
A showdown between the executive and legislative branches has ratcheted up, as President Trump and his administration have resisted Democrats’ oversight efforts on multiple fronts.
 
No surprise.
 
16 

New Tensions With Iran Threaten Nuclear Deal and, White House Says, U.S. Troops

DAVID E. SANGER, EDWARD WONG, ERIC SCHMITT and HELENE COOPER at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
The mutual threats escalated action from both the U.S., which warned against attacks, and Iran, which said it would not fully comply with a deal President Trump already abandoned.
 
Trump is being stupid.
 
17 

How to Report the Monthly Employment Number excluding Temporary Census Hiring

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 12 hours ago
The Census Bureau will soon start hiring temporary workers for the 2020 Census. Temporary hiring will really increase in March, April and May of 2020, and then the jobs will finish in a few months. These are real jobs - frequently second jobs, or taken by seniors and students - but they will only last a few months. Since these are temporary, and only happen every ten years with the decennial Census, it makes sense to adjust the headline monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) by Census hiring to determine the underlying employment trend. The correct adjustment method is to take... more » 
 
Ok
 
18 

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March: National Delinquency Rate Nearing Record Low

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 13 hours ago
Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for March today. According to Black Knight, 3.65% of mortgages were delinquent in March, down from 3.73% in March 2018. Black Knight also reported that 0.51% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.63% a year ago. This gives a total of 4.16% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Black Knight: Servicers Retained Just 18% of Customers Post-Refinance in Q1 2019, a 13-Year Low; Slight Rate Increase Reduces Refinanceable Population by 1 Million Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released ... more » 
 
Recovery continues.
 
19 

Humans Are Speeding Extinction and Altering the Natural World at an ‘Unprecedented’ Pace

BRAD PLUMER at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
A dire United Nations report, based on thousands of scientific studies, paints an urgent picture of biodiversity loss and finds that climate change is amplifying the danger to humanity.
 
Exponential growth is not obvious to most.
 
20 

Cory Booker’s Gun Control Plan Calls for National Licensing Program

MATT STEVENS at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
The proposal includes some of the most progressive gun-control measures suggested yet by a presidential candidate, like a plan to license guns across the country.
 
The plan is not a winner yet.
 
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