Friday, May 31, 2019

@9:25, , 5/30/19

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1

US Corn Crop Failure

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 2 minutes ago
The weather catastrophe in the central United States had led to corn not being planted by the deadline. This is a serious problem, miss the deadline of May 20th and there’s little point in planting at all. let’s please stay aware of what’s happening right now with crops. Things are about to get _really_ weird […]
 
Expensive food.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_wheat
 

Trump Admits to Russia ‘Helping Me to Get Elected’

Eileen Sullivan at NYT > Politics - 31 minutes ago
Amid criticism of the special counsel’s investigation, President Trump offers an extraordinary admission, that the rival country helped him win the presidency in 2016.
 
Confession does not help the defense.
Investigation must intensify.
Putin's Russia is not a friend.
 

Mueller Delivered a Message. Washington Couldn’t Agree on What It Was.

Peter Baker at NYT > Politics - 31 minutes ago
As he stepped down from his role as special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III refused to exonerate President Trump but also avoided being declarative enough to change many minds.
 
Mueller executed his brief.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brief_(law)
 
Obviously Republicans can't or wont  read or listen. 

Mueller wrote and spoke clearly.
 

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 215,000

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 42 minutes ago
The DOL reported: In the week ending May 25, *the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000*, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 220,250 to 220,500. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. *Click on graph for larger ... more » 
 
A noisy signal.
 

Q1 GDP Revised Down to 3.1% Annual Rate

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 42 minutes ago
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st quarter 2019 (preliminary estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of *3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019*, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP in the first quarter was ... more » 
 
Guessing.
 

Four Years After Beau Biden’s Death, His Father Bonds With Voters in Pain

Katie Glueck at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago
As Joe Biden runs for president, there is evidence that his family tragedies have helped him form connections with voters grappling with their own grief.
 
Life hurts.
It can hurt less.
Comforting does not replace good government.
 
Billions will die.  
Let us not rush the process.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_trap
 

On Politics: Mueller Breaks His Silence

NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago
Speaking publicly about his investigation for the first time, the special counsel declined to clear the president of obstruction of justice.
 
Read Mueller's statement.  He wrote it with care.
What isn't there is important. 
 

Michael Wolff Talks ‘Siege,’ Trump, Journalism and His Definition of Truth

Michael M. Grynbaum at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
“I’m a New York guy,” the author says. “Trump is a New York guy. In the end, we know a lot of the same people.”
 
Michael Wolff is writing entertainment.  
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defamation#Public_figure_doctrine_(absence_of_malice)
He is not getting sued.
 

Disney May Halt Productions in Georgia if Abortion Law Is Enforced

Daniel Victor at NYT > Politics - 7 hours ago
The company’s chief executive, Bob Iger, said it would be “very difficult” to continue filming in the state if the law is carried out.
 
OK.
 
10 

White House Asked Navy to Hide John McCain Warship During Trump’s Visit

Maggie Haberman and Helene Cooper at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
While Navy officials insisted they did not hide the ship, they did give all of sailors aboard the day off on Tuesday as President Trump visited Yokosuka Naval Base in Japan.
 
It does not sound sane
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-fifth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
 
I do not want a president Pence.
 
11 

Mueller Delivered a Message. Washington Couldn’t Agree on What It Was.

Peter Baker at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
As he stepped down from his role as special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III refused to exonerate President Trump but also avoided being declarative enough to change many minds.
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/30/us/politics/trump-russia-help-elected.html
Trump understood.
 
Mueller communicated clearly.
 
12 

In Graduation Speech, Hillary Clinton Calls for Renewed Attention on Russian Interference

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
Speaking at Hunter College commencement in New York City, Mrs. Clinton urged Americans to confront Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election.
 
Ok.
 
13 

In and Out of Character, Robert Mueller Makes His Lone Appearance as Special Counsel

Noah Weiland at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
Mr. Mueller’s decision to speak publicly for the first time as special counsel surprised observers and former colleagues, even as he stuck to plain remarks.
 
 The House must do its jobs.
 
14 

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 12 hours ago
Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The *initial weekly unemployment claims* report will be released. The consensus is for 215 thousand initial claims, up from 211 thousand last week. • At 8:30 AM, *Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019* (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q2, down from the advance estimate of 3.2%. • At 10:00 AM, *Pending Home Sales Index* for April. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in the index.
 
15 

Punching Iran Over Its Foreign Policy Could Lead to a Faster Path to War

Edward Wong at NYT > Politics - 13 hours ago
Wrestling with Iran’s diplomacy and military activity could prompt a confrontation between Washington and Tehran well before any showdown over a nuclear program.
 
There will be no new Persian empire.
Shia and Suni are not at peace.
 
16 

Women Sue F.B.I., Claiming Discrimination at Training Academy

Adam Goldman at NYT > Politics - 13 hours ago
The women say they were exposed to a hostile work environment, sexual harassment and inappropriate jokes while training to become agents or intelligence analysts.
 
Proof will be difficult.
 
17 

Pelosi Slow-Walks Trump’s New Nafta Deal

Glenn Thrush and Ana Swanson at NYT > Politics - 13 hours ago
Resisting President Trump’s entreaties, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is dragging out consideration of an updated North American trade deal, putting off a vote at least until the fall.
 

Nancy Pelosi Criticizes Facebook for Handling of Altered Videos

Cecilia Kang at NYT > Politics - 13 hours ago
Ms. Pelosi said the company’s decision to leave up manipulated videos of her demonstrated how the social network contributed to Russian manipulation of the 2016 election.
 
Facebook  must change its business model.
 
19 

Standing Where Barr Cleared Trump on Obstruction, Mueller Makes a Different Case

Mark Mazzetti and Charlie Savage at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
The special counsel hopes an appearance will be his first and last public statement about the Russia and obstruction investigation. But he left many things unsaid.
 
Yes
 
20 

House Leaders Push Mueller to Testify as More Democrats Clamor for Impeachment

Nicholas Fandos at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
Robert S. Mueller III stated clearly that he hoped his public statement Wednesday would be his last, but with impeachment fever rising, Democrats want him on a witness stand.
 
The House must do the investigation.
 
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Thursday, May 30, 2019

@21:07, , 5/29/19

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1

Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 5 minutes ago
Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The *initial weekly unemployment claims* report will be released. The consensus is for 215 thousand initial claims, up from 211 thousand last week. • At 8:30 AM, *Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019* (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q2, down from the advance estimate of 3.2%. • At 10:00 AM, *Pending Home Sales Index* for April. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in the index.
 
Perhapse there is wisdom in crowds.
 

Punching Iran Over Its Foreign Policy Could Lead to a Faster Path to War

Edward Wong at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Wrestling with Iran’s diplomacy and military activity could prompt a confrontation between Washington and Tehran well before any showdown over a nuclear program.
 
Iran would be foolish to go to war.
John R. Bolton may be that foolish.
 
3  

Women Sue F.B.I., Claiming Discrimination at Training Academy

Adam Goldman at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
The women say they were exposed to a hostile work environment, sexual harassment and inappropriate jokes while training to become agents or intelligence analysts.
 
First win the suit.
 

Pelosi Slow-Walks Trump’s New Nafta Deal

Glenn Thrush and Ana Swanson at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Resisting President Trump’s entreaties, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is dragging out consideration of an updated North American trade deal, putting off a vote at least until the fall.
 
Frustration can run both ways.
 

Nancy Pelosi Criticizes Facebook for Handling of Altered Videos

Cecilia Kang at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Ms. Pelosi said the company’s decision to leave up manipulated videos of her demonstrated how the social network contributed to Russian manipulation of the 2016 election.
 
If Facebook edits content it is a content provider and responsible.
It does and is.  Facebook must be sued.
 

Standing Where Barr Cleared Trump on Obstruction, Mueller Makes a Different Case

Mark Mazzetti and Charlie Savage at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
The special counsel hopes an appearance will be his first and last public statement about the Russia and obstruction investigation. But he left many things unsaid.
 
The House will build the cases against Trump as they should.
 

House Leaders Push Mueller to Testify as More Democrats Clamor for Impeachment

Nicholas Fandos at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
Robert S. Mueller III stated clearly that he hoped his public statement Wednesday would be his last, but with impeachment fever rising, Democrats want him on a witness stand.
 
Mueller will testify when asked.
 

U.S. Believes Russia Has Restarted Low-Yield Nuclear Tests

Julian E. Barnes and William J. Broad at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
If true, the finding could eventually prompt the Trump administration to begin its own testing. But some experts said the accusations were nothing new.
 
"The only way to win is not to play" 
 

Nancy Pelosi Criticizes Facebook for Handling of Altered Videos

Cecilia Kang at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Ms. Pelosi said the company’s decision to leave up manipulated videos of her demonstrated how the social network contributed to Russian manipulation of the 2016 election.
 
Nancy Pelosi is correct.
 
10 

The Shifting Standards of Mitch McConnell

Carl Hulse at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Despite his blockade of an Obama Supreme Court nominee in a presidential election year, the Senate majority leader is now definitive that he would push a Trump nominee in 2020.
 
Mitch McConnell is a fanatic.
 
11 

Man in Critical Condition After Setting Himself on Fire Near the White House

Zach Montague at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
The Secret Service cleared the area of people, including a group protesting the Trump administration’s plan to roll back protections for transgender individuals.
 
Use enough fuel.
 
12 

After Mueller Statement, More 2020 Democrats Call for Impeachment

Maggie Astor at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Previously, only a few candidates had called for beginning impeachment proceedings against President Trump. Now, a majority of the Democratic field has expressed support.
 
Dramatic.  
Time is too short.
Defeat him and send him to prison.
 
13 

Beto O’Rourke Proposes Immigration Overhaul That Would Undo Trump Policies

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Mr. O’Rourke’s broad plan also seeks a path to citizenship for undocumented people and strengthened ties between the United States and Latin America.
 
Baby steps.
Those policies must go. 
 
14 

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower YoY Price Gains in April

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 6 hours ago
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for March were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: March Case-Shiller Results and April Forecast: Home Buyers Hitting a Breaking Point? Looking ahead, Zillow’s April Case-Shiller forecast is for continued modest slowdowns in annual home price growth across all three major indices. Annual U.S. home price growth is expected to fall to 3.6%. The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shille... more » 
 
Guessing.
 
15 

Despite Warning From Trump, Roy Moore Says He Can Win Alabama Senate Seat

Trip Gabriel and Jonathan Martin at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Mr. Moore, a Republican former judge who lost a Senate race to Doug Jones after being accused of pursuing teenage girls, has said he is “strongly considering” running again.
 
The South will not rise again.
 
16 

Full Transcript of Mueller’s Statement on Russia Investigation

The New York Times at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
The special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, made public remarks on Wednesday about the Russia investigation.
 
Read it.
 
17 

Trump Warns Roy Moore Against Alabama Senate Run

Trip Gabriel at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Mr. Moore, a Republican former judge who lost a Senate race to Doug Jones after being accused of pursuing teenage girls, has said he is “strongly considering” running again.
 
Church and state are and must be separate.
 
18 

Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in April

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 8 hours ago
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in April was 0.65%, down from 0.67% in March. Freddie's rate is down from 0.94% in April 2018. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since December 2007. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". [image: Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent Rate]*Click on graph for larger image* I expect the delinquency rate to decline to a cycle bottom in the 0.4% to 0.6% range - so th... more » 
 
watch this space.  The lenders have been cautious. 
 
19

Mueller, in First Comments on Russia Inquiry, Declines to Clear Trump

Sharon LaFraniere at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
Though he did not rule out congressional testimony, the special counsel also said that he would only testify about the facts already in the report.
 
Congress must do its work. 
 
20 

Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Was Moderate in May"

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 10 hours ago
From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District Manufacturing Was Moderate in May Fifth District manufacturing activity was moderate in May, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. *The composite index inched up from 3 in April to 5 in May*, as shipments and new orders had fairly flat reading and the third component, employment, remained positive. Firms reported growth in spending and positive overall business conditions and remained optimistic about growth in the coming months. Survey results indicated that employment and wages grew in May, while the i... more » 
 
Trending down.
 
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019

@22:00, , 5/28/19

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1

Trump and Biden Campaign Trade Jabs Over North Korea’s Remarks

Katie Glueck at NYT > Politics - 17 seconds ago
After the president sided with Kim Jong-un in mocking Mr. Biden’s intelligence, Mr. Biden let an aide rebut it instead of taking on Mr. Trump himself.
 
Trump does not think well.
 

Justin Amash, Under Attack for Impeachment Talk, Finds Mixed Support at Home

Emily Cochrane at NYT > Politics - 17 seconds ago
Representative Justin Amash, always a marginal Republican figure, finds himself on center stage for his view on the president’s conduct: hero to many, goat to many more.
 
I would rather be Justin Amash than his detractors.
 

Wednesday: Dallas Fed Mfg Survey

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 18 minutes ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Are Great, But They Could Be Greater The world of mortgage rate analysis is both simple and complicated. On a simple note, rates are near long-term lows and they'll generally continue to follow the broader market for interest rates (which is largely based on US Treasuries, domestically). … The biggest issue--and the one that's most difficult to explain in simple terms--is that mortgages have not been doing a good job of keeping pace with Treasury yields lately. [*30YR FIXED - 4.0% - 4.125%*] emphasis added Wednesday: • At ... more » 
 
The banks are desperate to lend.
 

White House Insider Account Has Feel of an Outside View, and Prompts a Mueller Denial

Mark Landler at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago
Michael Wolff’s second book on the chaotic Trump White House also delves into the work of the special counsel, whose spokesman denied one of its most explosive claims.
 
Politics are still entertainment.
 

More Than Patriotism on Their Sleeves: Military Patches Sport Trump Likeness

Eric Schmitt at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago
A flap over politically themed patches worn by some American troops during President Trump’s visit of a warship in Japan has forced the Navy to review its policies.
 
Cults of personalty are not part of the command structure.
 

Former Navy Judge Named to Oversee Guantánamo Military Court

Carol Rosenberg at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago
Progress in trying terrorist suspects has been scant. The last full-time person in the role was dismissed after considering plea deals in the Sept. 11 and the destroyer Cole cases.
 
Guantanamo prison should be empty.
The Republican party has not allowed the further release of prisoners.
 

On Politics With Lisa Lerer: Summer Predictions

Lisa Lerer at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago
In the On Politics newsletter, bold predictions for what’s going to happen with the 2020 candidates this summer.
 
The primary race will simplify as it should.
 

Treasury Dept. Declines to Label China a Currency Manipulator

Alan Rappeport at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago
The decision could avoid further escalating tensions between Washington and Beijing, which have grown heated after a breakdown in trade negotiations this month.
 
Trump does not try to think.
 

Transportation Secretary Failed to Sever Financial Ties to Construction Company

Eric Lipton at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Elaine Chao’s ownership of stock in a company that sells materials used in highway building differs from the terms of her ethics agreement.
 
One must understand the contract.
Do not violate the terms.
 
10 

Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 6 hours ago
Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.7% year-over-year in March It has been over *eleven years* since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 12.6% above the previous bubble peak. *However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 7.9% below the bubble peak *(and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is still 14.7% below the bubble peak. The year-over-year increase i... more » 
 
A limit may have been reached.
 
11 

Kamala Harris Wants to Require States to Clear Abortion Laws With Justice Dept.

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Taking a cue from the Voting Rights Act, Ms. Harris’s plan would require some states to obtain federal approval before restrictions could take effect.
 
The Justice Department cannot be trusted to support abortion and other forms of contraception.
 
12 

For Second Time, One Republican’s Objection Delays Disaster Aid

Emily Cochrane at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky objected to a request on Tuesday to pass a $19.1 billion emergency relief package by unanimous consent, becoming the second House Republican to block final passage.
 
The objections appear tactical.
Trump needs his wall.
 
13 

Justices to Hear Case of U.S. Agent’s Shooting of Teenager Across the Mexican Border

Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
The Supreme Court also issued a decision limiting suits against the police by people claiming retaliatory arrests for exercising their First Amendment rights.
 
The Republican party must not become the U.S. government.
 
14 

Trump Undercuts Bolton on North Korea and Iran

Peter Baker and Maggie Haberman at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
The disconnect between President Trump and his third national security adviser has sown confusion around the world about America’s foreign policy.
 
I would not be unhappy to see Bolton depart.
 
15 

Savior of G.M. Lordstown Plant, Hailed by Trump, Is a Corporate Cipher

Nelson D. Schwartz, Matthew Goldstein and Neal E. Boudette at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
The electric-truck venture hailed by President Trump exists almost entirely on paper and would need $300 million to get the factory running again.
 
Big talk and no money.
 
16 

Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 9 hours ago
CR Note: This is a repeat of earlier posts with updated graphs. A few key points: 1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices. 2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern. 3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor is based on several years of data - and the factor is now overstating the seasonal change (second graph below). 4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index. For in depth description of these issues, see ... more » 
 
I do not need to purchase soon.
 
Sooner is better.  As soon as you can is best.  
 
17

Supreme Court Sidesteps Abortion Question in Ruling on Indiana Law

Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
The justices upheld a law on the disposal of fetal remains, but declined to hear a case on whether states can prohibit abortions sought solely based on a fetal characteristic like sex or disability.
 
Abortion remains safe and legal.
Several states are frustrated.
 
18 

Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues but Pace Slows"

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 11 hours ago
From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues but Pace Slows Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell six points to 6.3, indicating output growth decelerated from April. Most other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested slower expansion in May. The survey’s demand indicators fell but remained positive: The new orders index slipped seven points to 2.4, and the gro... more » 
 
The war on statistics continues.
 
19 

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.7% year-over-year in March

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 12 hours ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March" is a 3 month average of January, February and March prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. *Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.* From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Home Price Gains Continue to Weaken The S&P CoreLogic *Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.7% ... more » 
 
The market is getting ahead of itself.
 
20 

The Most Important Climate Change Graph You’ll Every See

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 14 hours ago
This is why we won’t be stopping climate change, and why you must personally plan for it. We are not going to start mitigating at 5% this year. We are not going to start mitigating at 9% in 2029. These are political non-starters. They will not happen. For whatever reason
 
Money persists in seeking rent.
 
Ian Welsh is probably correct.
 
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019

@20:10, , 5/25/19

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1

Trump Wants to Wall Off Huawei, but the Digital World Bridles at Barriers

David E. Sanger at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Washington argues that global leaders must choose between an internet of Western values and one based on an authoritarian regime. If they do, how will data be divided? And would a self-reliant China be an even greater threat?
Trump and Co. have decided not to lead.
Protecting old intelectual property is more important than creating new property.

Trump Administration Hardens Its Attack on Climate Science

Coral Davenport and Mark Landler at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
In a significant escalation, policymakers are seeking to undermine or discard research showing the most dire risks of inaction on climate change.

The War on Data Continues

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 9 hours ago
Three years ago I wrote: The War on Data Unfortunately the war on data has continued unabated, as Catherine Rampell noted last week in the WaPo: The Trump administration’s war on statistics isn’t slowing down Don’t like the numbers? Invent new numbers instead. Or make it harder to collect trustworthy numbers next time. Or just put the squeeze on the number crunchers themselves. Slowly but surely, the Trump administration has been chipping away at the independence and integrity of our federal statistical agencies, whose data is critical to keeping our democracy functioning and our e... more »

Fearing Supreme Court Loss, New York Tries to Make Gun Case Vanish

Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 14 hours ago
The case, a challenge to a New York City gun regulation, is the first Second Amendment case at the Supreme Court in almost a decade.

With the 2020 Democratic Field Set, Candidates Begin the Races Within the Race

Jonathan Martin and Reid J. Epstein at NYT > Politics - 14 hours ago
The competitive lanes are set as candidates vie for black voters, women, younger voters — but they are fluid. One thing seems sure: Joseph R. Biden’s lead will be tested.

2019 Fundraiser

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 15 hours ago
I am raising funds for 2019. The more funds I raise, the more I write. DONATE OR SUBSCRIBE The specific goals for this year are: $5000—10 non fiction book reviews on books which are helpful to understand society. $8000—Another 6 book reviews to the series. $11,000—A booklet, “How To Think: Understanding the World.” A lot […]

Female Veterans, and a Memorial to Them, Struggle to Honor Women Who Served

Jennifer Steinhauer at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
Contributions to the memorial have flagged, and federal money has become stretched across an expanding landscape of tributes.

‘Wow, What Is That?’ Navy Pilots Report Unexplained Flying Objects

Helene Cooper, Ralph Blumenthal and Leslie Kean at NYT > Politics - 23 hours ago
No one at the Pentagon is saying that the objects are extraterrestrial, but the Navy has issued new classified guidance for reporting unexplained aerial phenomena.
 

Cory Booker Says Beating Trump Should Be ‘the Floor, Not the Ceiling’

Nick Corasaniti at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Stuck in the polls and contending with a loaded Democratic field, Mr. Booker emphasized a deeper primary conversation during a four-day swing through Iowa.

Sarah Sanders Says Trump and Kim ‘Agree in Their Assessment’ of Biden

Maggie Haberman at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
The White House press secretary also defended the president’s approach to North Korea and the review of the Russia investigation’s roots.

Trump’s Ringside Evening in the Sumo Arena

Katie Rogers at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
The sumo ring is a sacred space where rules have applied for centuries. Foreign leaders do not often step inside, but President Trump came bearing a trophy.

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – May 26, 2019

Tony Wikrent at Ian Welsh - 1 day ago
This post is by Tony Wikrent Strategic Political Economy The radical plan to change how Harvard teaches economics [Vox, via The Big Picture 5-25-19]Harvard finally has someone who is challenging Bush Dubya’s economic guru Greg Mankiw in the teaching of introductory economics. Personally, I think Mankiw should be turned over to some impoverished country like Chad […]

Trump’s Ringside Evening in the Sumo Arena

Katie Rogers at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
The sumo ring is a sacred space where rules have applied for centuries. Foreign leaders do not often step inside, but President Trump came bearing a trophy.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased Year-over-year

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 day ago
From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 18 May The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 12-18 May 2019, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 13-19 May 2018, the industry recorded the following: • *Occupancy: +0.8% to 70.8%* • Average daily rate (ADR): +1.4% to US$134.36 • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): +2.2% to US$95.13 emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. [image: Hotel O... more »

How Democrats Are, and Aren’t, Challenging the Trump Economic Record

Neil Irwin at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Acknowledging the boom, and then a quick pivot to other issues or a nuanced argument on what personal economic well-being means.

Trump Opens Tokyo Visit With a Tweet Sure to Unnerve the Japanese

Annie Karni and Katie Rogers at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
President Trump played down North Korea’s recent tests of short-range ballistic missiles, undercutting declarations by both Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the president’s own national security adviser.

Bernie Sanders, No Longer the Front-Runner, Brings Campaign Home to Vermont

Sydney Ember at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
His themes are familiar, but his status — he is now second in the polls — has changed. He is starting to host in-person fund-raisers, with ticket prices starting at $27.

Trump’s Targeting of Intelligence Agencies Gains a Harder Edge

Michael S. Schmidt and Julian E. Barnes at NYT > Politics - 2 days ago
The president has long waged that war by tweet, but his new attorney general is poised to professionalize the fight.

A Lesson of Sandy Hook: ‘Err on the Side of the Victims’

Elizabeth Williamson at NYT > Politics - 2 days ago
A tidal wave of aid bore witness to the power of human kindness, but the money that engulfed Newtown, Conn., also sowed division.

Fact-Checking Bernie Sanders on the Campaign Trail

Linda Qiu at NYT > Politics - 2 days ago
Mr. Sanders has campaigned on his record of popularizing progressive positions and taking aim at President Trump. Here’s a fact-check of his remarks.
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