Wednesday, August 1, 2012

- - - - 7/31/12

Negotiations continue on finances in Europe.

There seems to be confusion of kinds of debt among observers.

Sovereign debt is not bank debt is not corporate debt is not personal debt.

If the distinctions were better known there would be far less panic.

The FDIC is critical in the US. 
When banks fail, the depositors are not wiped out.
The assets of the bank also continue. 
The really large deflation of the 1930s has not recurred.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/gay-marriage-opponents-appeal-prop-8-case-to

Gay Marriage Opponents Appeal Prop 8 Case To Supreme Court

"Gay marriage opponents officially asked the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn an appeals court ruling on California’s anti-same-sex marriage law on Tuesday, reports the LA Times. In February, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals struck down Proposition 8, the state’s 2008 ballot initiative banning gay marriage. The case has long been expected to end up before the Supreme Court. 
From the LA Times:
Charles J. Cooper, Protect Marriage’s lead attorney in the case, said he was confident the Supreme Court would grant the review.

The 9th Circuit ruling against Prop 8 was narrowly written and applied only to California. Rather than expand the rights of gays and lesbians, the majority based its decision a 1996 Supreme Court precedent that said a majority may not take away a minority’s rights without legitimate reasons.
The lawyers for two same-sex couple who challenged Prop 8 in federal court said they would oppose review by the Supreme Court."
I see no reason for the court to review the case. 
That does not mean it will not be reviewed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9440771/Greece-on-the-brink-as-cash-reserves-dry-up.html

"Greece's European partners have repeatedly promised the country will be funded through August, when it must repay a €3.2bn (£2.5bn) bond, but the details of the funding have yet to be disclosed.
In the absence of that money, Greece would run out of funds to pay everyday public expenses ranging from police and other public service wages to pensions and social benefits, Reuters reported.
The country is wholly reliant on aid from its European partners and the International Monetary Fund, who have turned up the pressure in recent weeks by withholding further aid until an assesment of Greece's compliance with reforms is complete.
"Cash reserves are almost zero. It is risky to say until when [they will last] as it always depends on the budget execution, revenues and expenditure," Deputy Finance Minister Christos Staikouras told state NET television.
"But we are certainly on the brink, we did not receive the aid tranche we were supposed to and we have the pending issue of an ECB bond maturing on August 20."
Greece has narrowly dodged bankruptcy several times before, with the government carrying out a juggling act of holding off on paying some suppliers and issuing T-bills until the next tranche of aid from lenders arrives.
The assessment of Greece's progress in meeting the terms of its bailout by EU/IMF inspectors, who are currently on a visit to Athens, is not expected until September.
Adding to the uncertainty, Greek political leaders have been wrangling over €11.5bn of cuts that are crucial to appeasing the lenders."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9442854/Hollande-joins-chorus-of-leaders-pledging-to-save-eurozone.html


"Mr Hollande said significant progress had been made over recent weeks, adding: “We cannot allow ourselves one minute of inattention. We recalled our commitment... that the eurozone be defended, preserved and consolidated.”
They were the latest comments in a string of upbeat rhetoric from European leaders and policymakers in recent days, in what appears to be an attempt to shore up confidence before the summer break.
Mr Monti said earlier in the day that he could see “light at the end of the tunnel” for the crisis.
Speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will take dramatic action as early as Thursday to stem the crisis had been mounting since its president Mario Draghi said last week the bank would do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. Economists expect Mr Draghi at the very least to restart the ECB’s bond buying programme to shore up Spanish and Italian sovereign debt, or possibly to flood the banks with cheap funding again. But they hope he will go further and grant the eurozone’s new rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism, a banking licence.
However, Germany countered the positive mood as the country’s finance ministry said there would be no need to give the ESM a banking licence. That would block it from buying debt issued by troubled eurozone members.
“This is a blow to those expecting the ECB to deliver some sort of big bazooka at this week’s meeting,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Forex.com.
Without a banking licence, the rescue funds only have approximately €500bn (£393bn) to bail out Spain and Italy – two at-risk economies. Rabobank economists said there were concerns “that Draghi has over-primed the market with his fighting talk last week. Clearly, as expectations rise, so too does the hurdle for the ECB being able to meet them”.
Meanwhile, Greece sounded the alarm bells, with its deputy finance minister saying the ailing country was “on the brink” and would not be able to meet its commitments without another tranche of funding from Europe in August. Market optimism fell away, with the FTSE 100, CAC 40 in France, and Spain’s IBEX 35 all down by about 1pc.
Official unemployment data showed the number of people jobless in the eurozone rose by 123,000 between May and June, to 17.8m, with the unemployment rate at a record high of 11.2pc.
Separate data showed no respite for households as annual eurozone inflation was unchanged at 2.4pc in July, above the ECB’s 2pc target."

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/spain-capital-outflows-reach-record-levels-in-euro-crisis-a-847466.html


"Capital outflows from Spain quadrupled in May to €41.3 billion from May 2011 in a sign of waning confidence in the country's ailing banking sector. In the first five months of this year, outflows reached a record €163 billion, according to figures from the country's central bank.
Capital outflows from Spain more than quadrupled in May to €41.3 billion ($50.7 billion) compared with May 2011, according to figures released on Tuesday by the Spanish central bank.

In the first five months of 2012, a total of €163 billion left the country, the figures indicate. During the same period a year earlier, Spain recorded a net inflow of €14.6 billion. The outflow has resulted from domestic banks sending money abroad, foreign lenders pulling out cash and mostly non-resident investors dumping Spanish assets. The steep rise was likely due to Bankia, the banking conglomerate, having requested a bailout in May.
Over the last 11 months, funds equivalent to 26 percent of gross domestic product exited the country, Tuesday's data from the Bank of Spain showed.
Too Big to Rescue
Spain's struggling economy, which is expected to remain in recession well into next year, is now at the center of the euro crisis. Skyrocketing borrowing costs risk shutting the country out of international debt markets.

EU officials are increasingly worried that if Spain, the euro zone's fourth largest economy, needs a full bailout, financial markets will target Italy, which is too big to be rescued. Reports on Tuesday said France and Italy were proposing giving the permanent bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, a banking license which would equip it with unlimited firepower because it could borrow funds from the European Central Bank using government bonds as collateral.
Germany opposes such a plan, arguing that it would stoke inflation and lead to an indirect collectivization of debts. It would also see countries receive help without having to do anything in return.
cro -- with wire reports"

Things look like Greece will be allowed to exit quietly.
I do not claim to know.

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