Things may be happening in Europe. I don't know what.
I see the press reports. They conflict.
I will try to look at the news again in the morning.
I find I look at very little television. I don't miss it as I don't talk to television watchers often. What tube I see is broadcast over the air.
As I look around I see dish network hardware everywhere. Often more than one antenna on a small building. I have not seen the big satellite dishes for years. Those services may have died. There is satellite internet service but the cost is high. Dial up I will not do. Cable does internet and television.
Fiber-optic is faster but the service is of limited availability. Most cellular
is limited five gigabits a month. That is not much full screen video or good resolution still pictures. DSL over twisted copper pair is good for audio or
still pictures. It requires patience for video. The last time I downloaded a Linux distribution it took twelve hours at full speed.
There are a number of other alternatives. Access to an in town server or an office with good service are two. An academic job or library privileges are others. Netfliks by mail should be on the list. DVDs from the library are another possibility. Running a digital video recorder to DVD from a shared cable and viewing the next day could be done. Some of this might be considered doubtful under the copy right rules. I do not want to defend my behavior in court.
Most material can be had on bittorrent from the pirate bay or the Russians. The collateral cost is prohibitive.
The corn crop failure this year appears to be real.
We should stop making ethanol from it.
People are going to be getting very hungry. Corn and beans will keep them fed. We even know how to make it taste good. Control of the flatulence is harder but, I am told, possible. I have made tortillas. I have not developed much skill. I see them on the shelf at the super market. I am confident with simple breads, sponge cakes and crepes. Pretzels and pasta I can do. My pizza needs work. I have not touched doughnuts for decades. Rice is easy until it gets fancy. Rye, oats and barley go with buck wheat as a bit exotic.
Ethiopia east sorghum when they can grow it. On the farm reports it is milo.
Eating is not often a problem. Eating a diet that is known can be.
Eating can be a problem if the food is stolen or destroyed.
Moving a population to an area without food will starve people.
Foraging in wild lands requires knowledge most do not have. it is in the libraries but there are few of those in wild lands and planning failed or people would not be there hungry.
Penny stocks are always high risk. Some of the risks are crimes.
Osborne 'must tax and go for growth'
19 Aug 2012
| 203 Comments George Osborne 'must spend on infrastructure and axe stamp duty'
19 Aug 2012
| 90 Comments Italian tax inspectors go undercover on beaches
19 Aug 2012
| 1 Comment We must be radical to save the UK economy
19 Aug 2012
| 94 Comments Euro must not pit North against South, says Monti
19 Aug 2012
| 15 Comments Greece 'must remain in the eurozone'
Greece must remain in the euro to survive according to its finance minister, as the country’s leader prepares for a week of crucial meetings with eurozone leaders which could ultimately determine its fate.19 Aug 2012
| 81 Comments Russian Bear stops Finland leaving euro
German eurosceptics quietly hope that Finland will become the first creditor state to storm out of monetary union in disgust, opening the way for others to break free.19 Aug 2012
| 373 Comments Greece must remain in eurozone, says minister
Greece must remain in the eurozone, finance minister Yannis Stournaras said, ahead of a week of crucial meetings between the prime minister and EU officials.19 Aug 2012
| 2 Comments ECB 'mulls caps on borrowing costs'
The European Central Bank is considering buying the bonds of crisis-wracked eurozone countries to ensure borrowing costs do not rise beyond a pre-determined level, according to reports.19 Aug 2012
| 5 Comments Britain's businesses can withstand any shock from the eurozone
The chilling effect of the eurozone crisis could be worse than an actual Greek default, says Chris Heaton-Harris19 Aug 2012
| 23 Comments -
19 Aug 2012: Larry Elliott: This debit crisis is following same path as one 30 years go. Time to rethink how economics is taught to avoid another lost decade
- 17 Aug 2012: Ana Botella is first high-level official to say publicly that Spain would need financial aid from European Union
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15 Aug 2012: Ability to withstand the coming storm will have long-term implications for region that was until recently a byword for financial turbulence
- 15 Aug 2012: Jochen Hung: The German chancellor's private personality and cautious economics have led to astonishingly high approval ratings
- 15 Aug 2012: Greek prime minister Antonis Samaras is expected to formally ask for Greece's reform plan to be relaxed, but economist fear he faces a rough ride in Berlin
Wolf Richter www.testosteronepit.com
"The Eurozone wasn’t supposed to be a house of cards. And as long as there was “confidence” that it would work, it worked: the financial markets offered cheap no-questions-asked loans to the most profligate governments, and even tiny countries like Cyprus were able to suck up and disperse in record time phenomenal amounts of money. The elites got immensely rich, and even other members of society were able to pick up some crumbs. But all that remains from this drunken frenzy are mountains of decomposing debt—and a cacophony of discord, shouting matches about defaults, and visions of impossibility. Former taboos are violated, sacred cows are slaughtered, and the euro has been tossed on the chopping block.
There was billionaire Frank Stronach who’d announced he’d start an anti-euro political party in Austria. While the European Union should guarantee peace and the free movement of goods, people, services, and capital, he said, it could only function “if every country has its own currency.” He called the ESM, the not yet existing bailout fund that is supposed to save the Eurozone but is still hung up in the German Constitutional Court, “insolvency procrastination.” And he exhorted Austrians to ditch the euro [read.... The Euro Revolt Spreads To Austria].
Austrian Foreign Minister Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP) would take the opposite tack. Worried about exports—half the jobs in Austria depended on them—he’d rather not get rid of the euro. Instead, “We need possibilities to kick someone out of the monetary union,” he said, particularly “countries that don’t stick to their commitments.” And he jabbed at Greece because it had lied about its numbers in order to be allowed into the Eurozone.
Alas, being able to kick a country out would require treaty changes, which would take five years, Spindelegger said. But he’d already started discussions with other foreign ministers. While many of them supported treaty changes, unanimity of all 27 EU countries would be required, he said, possibly aware of his illusions.
He immediately caught heat from stalwarts in the coalition government. Some called it “populist”—as opposed to elitist, perhaps. Chancellor Werner Faymann was worried about “the negative consequences of a breakup of the Eurozone”—even he used breakup of the Eurozone, a concept now as common as the currency itself, though for top politicians, it had been an unmentionable not long ago. And in Germany, the discussion had already come to a boil [read... German Bailout Rebellion: “We Have Euro-Anarchy”].
In Finland, Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja poured gasoline on the fire: “We have to face openly the possibility of a euro-break up,” he said. “Our officials, like everybody else, and like every general staff, have some sort of operational plan for any eventuality.” The only handicap? “A Eurozone break-up would cost more in the short-run or medium-run than managing the crisis.” So it was just a matter of when to recognize the costs incurred in prior years: publicizing them now or sweeping them under the rug via the bailout funds that Stronach had correctly called “insolvency procrastination.”
Like Stronach, Tuomioja wanted to preserve the EU, and dumping the euro would make it “function better,” he said. He confirmed the scenario that either the south or the north would escape “because this currency straitjacket is causing misery for millions and destroying Europe’s future.” It didn’t help that he called the euro “a total catastrophe.”
Not a day passes by when the concept of a Eurozone breakup doesn’t flare up in public. Each time, it saps confidence in the euro even more, though “confidence” is the only thing that separates that house of cards from collapse. The 21 EU summits to save the Eurozone, the waves of half-hearted dog-and-pony shows, and the alphabet soup of tangled-up and ineffectual bailout measures have all failed to stem the slide. There is nothing to indicate that a magic potion could eventually be found. And the fact that “breakup of the Eurozone” is such a common topic at the top of the political power structure has infused it with a life of its own.
“Default is not necessarily destructive,” said Panayiotis Lafazanis, a Greek politician, as the system in Greece is assuming aspects of financial rigor mortis. Read.... The Greek Bailout Sham Is Getting Gummed Up.
And here’s a veritable chorus of former (and current) central bankers who lashed out against central-bank sins and shenanigans.... Former Central Bankers Speak Out Against Central Banks, by George Dorgan."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/19/us-economy-global-weekahead-idUSBRE87I08H20120819
(Reuters) - Drug dealers, money launderers and assorted cash-only criminals love the convenience of the 500 euro note. Will bankers also soon be clamoring for wads of the high-value bill?
The question arises because the European Central Bank might have to lower interest rates further to revive growth. Business surveys this week are likely to show the euro zone economy remaining flat on its back in August after contracting by 0.2 percent in the second quarter.
But the ECB has already cut to zero the interest it pays banks on excess reserves. So driving the deposit rate into negative territory -- charging banks for the privilege of parking surplus funds -- would force lenders to weigh up the alternative of withdrawing cash and stashing it somewhere safe.
The idea sounds outlandish. Not so. ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure addressed it back in February.
"Given the costs associated with holding large amounts of banknotes, it is likely that significantly negative interest rates would be required to trigger a switch from money holding to investment in banknotes," Coeure said.
Since then, the economic recovery the ECB was anticipating has failed to materialize, prompting the move to a zero deposit rate and leading economists to take a closer look at the cost of warehousing notes.
"The physical storage would be easy; if withdrawn as 500 euro notes, 1 billion euros (plus two big security guards) would easily fit into a VW Golf and the cash into existing bank safes. Harder to gauge are the inconvenience and insurance-type costs, which will affect banks' response," Greg Fuzesi of JP Morgan wrote in a note.
Lasse Holboell Nielsen, an economist with Goldman Sachs, has examined the case of non-euro member Denmark, whose central bank set a deposit rate of minus 0.2 percent over a month ago, to tease out the implications for the euro zone.
For a bank with 40 billion Danish crowns ($6.60 billion) on deposit, he reckons it would make economic sense to take out cash once the interest rate drops below -0.52 percent or -0.65 percent, depending on the fixed-cost assumptions for insurance, transport and vault rental.
Because Denmark's central bank has not encountered any unexpected fallout since it went negative, Nielsen concludes that it could cut the deposit rate by another quarter-point.
And based on Denmark's experience, he judges a negative deposit rate at the ECB of 0.25 percent is quite feasible.
ALL EYES ON THE CENTRAL BANKS
Steen Jakobsen, chief economist with Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, said he expected a weak euro zone purchasing mangers' survey on Thursday would ratchet up the pressure on ECB President Mario Draghi to act.
"If anything, it will support the argument that Draghi feels the need to do something about the monetary transmission mechanism because the numbers will just continue to weaken," Jakobsen said.
In particular, he said a marked slowdown in China, which also releases a poll of purchasing executives on Thursday, boded ill for exports from Germany, Europe's biggest economy.
A survey conducted by the International Chamber of Commerce and Germany's IFO institute, released last week, showed a sharp drop in global economic sentiment as fear over the fallout of the euro crisis persists.
"What was surprising in this quarter is that the optimism that things will soon turn around has almost disappeared," said Gernot Nerb, IFO's director of business surveys.
Investors are pinning their hopes not only on the ECB but also on the Federal Reserve. A monthly Reuters poll of economists showed the chances of a third round of asset purchases, known as quantitative easing, had risen to 60 percent from 50 percent in July.
The U.S. central bank's own thinking should become clearer with Wednesday's minutes of its July 31/August 1 policy meeting.
They are likely to show the Fed is waiting to see whether a recent tentative improvement in the economy is sustained.
To that end, a flurry of data on U.S. housing sales and prices this week is expected to provide further evidence that the bombed-out market is over the worst but, like the broader economy, is recovering only modestly. ($1 = 6.0604 Danish crowns)"
There are calls to limit the role of Chinese investors in consortiums bidding for UK nuclear contracts. Several people familiar with the sale process said UK officials had signalled a preference for the two competing consortiums’ Chinese partners to be minority investors in the project (Financial Times).
The ECB is considering setting interest rate thresholds to trigger purchases of peripheral eurozone bonds, according to a report in Der Spiegel. “Germany’s weekly Spiegel magazine, which did not name its sources, said on Sunday that the ECB would decide whether to implement such thresholds at its September meeting.” The ECB said it had no comment (Reuters).
“Health-care giant Aetna has struck a deal to buy Coventry Health Care for $5.7bn in cash and stock, a move that will make Aetna one of the largest providers of government-financed health care, people familiar with the matter said.” (Wall Street Journal)
Senior German politicians are pushing to reject Greece’s appeal for an extension on its reform programme, and to rule out a third bail-out. Finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Saturday, ”It is not responsible to throw money into a bottomless pit”, while economy minister and FDP leader Philipp Roesler also warned against easing Greece’s targets. Greek prime minister Antonis Samaris will meet with Angela Merkel in Berlin on Friday (Reuters).
Striking workers at the world’s Number 3 platinum producer Lonmin, where 44 people have been killed in a week of violence, face possible dismissal if they do not return to work on Monday, a company spokeswoman said (Reuters).
Gu Kailai was given a suspended death sentence on Monday, ending her trial for the murder of UK businessman Neil Heywood. Amid speculation about how much the politically-sensitive trial was orchestrated, “authorities also told Gu’s family members that they would be allowed to see her in less than 20 days as long as they didn’t appeal her case, said a source familiar with the discussion within Gu’s family.” (Washington Post)(Financial Times)
New home prices rose in 49 Chinese cities in July, out of 70 that are tracked — the largest number in 14 months (Bloomberg).
JP Morgan has picked former Exxon CEO Lee Raymond to chair its board committee investigating the ‘London Whale’ scandal (Wall Street Journal).
Belize is “playing hardball” with its creditors. The tiny central American country wants creditors to either forgive 45% of what they’re owed, or allow debt payments to be deferred for 15 years. If agreement isn’t reached by September 19, Belize will default on its $543.8m in outstanding debt (Wall Street Journal).
COMMENT AND CURIOS
- Gillian Tett: The fiscal cliff brinkmanship and the cost of stop-start crises. (Financial Times)
- Watch those soaring US hay prices. (Financial Times)
- Some early Groupon investors, such as Marc Andreessen, are getting out. (Wall Street Journal)
- The debate over Norway’s SWF investment strategy. (Financial Times)
Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
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