1
Open Thread
As usual, use this thread to discuss topics not related to recent posts.
A good excuse to say:
Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
2
Parties Face ‘Crackup’ as Outsiders Wield Social Media Against the Establishment
In the same week that Ross Perot died, the aftershocks of his assault on
the two-party system could be seen in internal quarrels involving President
Trump and Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Do not expect truth from social media.
3
Trump Backs Away From Barriers on Foreign Uranium
The president said he disagreed with a Commerce Department finding that
uranium imports pose a threat to national security.
Purchase is better than nuclear war.
4
Schedule for Week of July 14, 2019
The key reports this week are June housing starts and retail sales.
For manufacturing, the Industrial Production report and the July New York
and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.
*----- Monday, July 15th -----*
8:30 AM: The New York Fed *Empire State manufacturing survey* for July. The
consensus is for a reading of 0.5, up from -8.6.
*----- Tuesday, July 16th -----*
[image: Year-over-year change in Retail Sales]8:30 AM: *Retail sales* for
June is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for 0.1% increase in
retail sales.
This graph shows the year-over-year chang... more »
No inflation, light demand.
5
One Candidate In, One Candidate Out: This Week in the 2020 Race
Eric Swalwell exits the race as Tom Steyer enters it, the candidates talk
equity at the Essence Festival, and Joe Biden releases his tax returns.
Votes show winners.
6
House Democrats Postpone Mueller Testimony by One Week
Two high-stakes hearings with Robert S. Mueller III, the former special
counsel, that had been scheduled for next week have been moved to July 24.
Another week in hell for Trump.
7
A White House Correspondent Departs the Jaw-Dropping Trump Beat
Choosing a single day that epitomizes the Trump presidency — with its
tangle of norm-shattering days — is a fool’s errand. But Thursday came
close.
Trump keeps digging.
8
New Details on Family Separations Fuel Emotional Hearing
A House committee said Friday that at least 18 infants and toddlers were
separated from their migrant parents, the youngest just 4 months old.
Ending the separation policy would admit it is wrong.
9
E.P.A. Plans to Curtail the Ability of Communities to Oppose Pollution Permits
The agency is preparing to weaken rules that, for a quarter-century, have
given communities a voice in deciding how much industrial pollution may
legally be released nearby.
The purpose of the EPA has been inverted.
10
For 30 Minutes on a Hot Friday Morning, Trump Lashes Out at a Range of Critics
The president’s targets included Bill de Blasio, Paul D. Ryan, the outgoing
British ambassador and the press. But he said that Nancy Pelosi was not a
racist.
It is well that Trump is uncomfortable.
11
Claims That Obama ‘Yanked’ Citizenship Question From Census Are False
This talking point from supporters of President Trump is wrong in several
ways.
The question of citozenship does not belong on the decenial census.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_Nothing
12
Q2 Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2019
At the end of last year, I posted Ten Economic Questions for 2019. I
followed up with a brief post on each question. The goal was to provide an
overview of what I expected in 2019 (I don't have a crystal ball, but I
think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and
change my mind, when the outlook is wrong).
By request, here is a quick Q2 review. I've linked to my posts from the
beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments:
10) Question #10 for 2019: Will housing inventory increase or decrease in
2019?
"I expect to see inventory up again ye... more »
I intend to build.
13
Brazil’s President May Appoint Son, Friend to the Trumps, as Ambassador to U.S.
President Jair Bolsonaro said his son Eduardo’s friendship with President
Trump’s sons would make him an effective envoy. The idea immediately
provoked criticism.
More will not help.
14
As Tropical Storm Barry Strengthens, FEMA Is Already Stretched Thin
Three years of brutal disasters mean fewer trained FEMA workers are
available to help victims of Barry -- or whatever storm comes after it.
NOLA has been lucky.
15
House Votes to Extend 9/11 Fund for Lifetimes of First Responders
The House voted Friday on a $10 billion measure that would replenish a
Sept. 11 fund for ailing first responders and extend assistance for the
rest of their lives.
A required expense.
16
Matt Stoller Writes BIG: Anti-Trust
Matt was one of the writers at BOPNews, in what seems like a long time ago
now. He also wrote for MyDD for years. After that he, among other things,
spent time on the Hill as a Congressional aide, to learn how politics and
governance actually works. He left and joined an anti-trust think tank, […]
Antitrust would work.
17
House Passes $733 Billion Defense Bill Checking Trump’s War Powers
The House passed a provision that would require the president to get
Congress’s approval before authorizing military force against Iran.
Fighting continues.
18
Acosta to Resign as Labor Secretary Over Jeffrey Epstein Plea Deal
President Trump said the decision to resign was made by his labor
secretary, R. Alexander Acosta.
yes
19
Government Could Breach Debt Ceiling in September, Mnuchin Warns
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned Congress that the government could
breach its statutory borrowing limit by September, begging for a debt
ceiling increase.
Fighting continues.
20
Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5%
From Merrill Lynch: We continue to track *1.7% for 2Q GDP* growth. [July 12 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at *1.5% for 2019:Q2* and 1.8% for 2019:Q3. [July 12 estimate]. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the *second quarter of 2019 is 1.4 percent* on July 10, up from 1.3 percent on July 3. [July 10 estimate] CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 1.5% annualized in Q2.maybe.
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