Monday, July 1, 2019

@14:40, , 7/1/19

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1

Russia Sanctions Froze His Fortune. Can the 4th Amendment Unlock It?

Ben Protess and William K. Rashbaum at NYT > Politics - 4 seconds ago
A Manhattan investor and Trump donor with business ties to the heirs of Prince can’t get access to his money. A lawsuit says it amounts to an unreasonable seizure of property.
 
He should have access to his money.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
 

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 35% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 24 minutes ago
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. Lumber prices declined from the record highs in early 2018, and are now down 35% year-over-year. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through May 31, 2019 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures. [image: Lumcber Prices]*Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.* Right now Random Lengths prices are down 35% from a year ago, and CME futures are down 33% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and pea... more » 
 
Commercial single family construction is in trouble.
That does not displease me.
 

Construction Spending Declined in May

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 3 hours ago
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending declined in May: Construction spending during May 2019 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,293.9 billion, 0.8 percent below the revised April estimate of $1,304.0 billion. The May figure is 2.3 percent below the May 2018 estimate of $1,324.3 billion. Both private and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $953.2 billion, 0.7 percent below the revised April estimate of $960.3 billion. ... In May, the estimated seasonally adjusted a... more » 
 
I want to build.   This is good news. 
 
4

ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 51.7 in June

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 4 hours ago
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in June. The PMI was at 51.7% in June, down from 52.1% in May. The employment index was at 54.5%, up from 53.7% last month, and the new orders index was at 50.0%, down from 52.7%. From the Institute for Supply Management: June 2019 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in June, and the overall economy grew for the 122nd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM... more » 
 
Trump may not get another four years.  
 
5

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May: Record Low National Delinquency Rate, Early Delinquency Rate Increasing

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 6 hours ago
Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for May today. According to Black Knight, 3.36% of mortgages were delinquent in May, down from 3.64% in May 2018. Black Knight also reported that 0.49% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.59% a year ago. This gives a total of 3.85% delinquent or in foreclosure. Press Release: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor: In May, Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Prepayments Highest Since 2007; Prepays on 2018 Vintage Loans Up Three Times Over Past Four Months Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released its la... more » 
 
The wealthy have money.
 

Iran Breaches Critical Limit on Nuclear Fuel Under 2015 Deal

David E. Sanger at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
The violation does not by itself give the country the material for a nuclear weapon, but it signals that Tehran may be willing to abandon the pact’s limits.
 
As expected.
 

Ivanka Trump Tests Her Diplomatic Chops and Riles a Legion of Critics

Katie Rogers at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
President Trump’s elder daughter used a G20 summit and then the Demilitarized Zone to test her role as budding stateswoman for the administration.
 
Diplomacy is a real profession.
 

Pete Buttigieg Raised $24.8 Million in Second Quarter, His Campaign Says

Thomas Kaplan at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Mr. Buttigieg’s total is the latest evidence that he has gone from a long shot to a serious candidate for the Democratic nomination in a matter of months.
 
Many gays have disposible income.
 

What Trump’s Huawei Reversal Means for the Future of 5G

Andrew Ross Sorkin at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Huawei is the top threat to American dominance in wireless technology. And the U.S. is woefully, even disgracefully, behind.
 
Huawei is the current winner in the internet competition.
 
 Slash dot search:  
10 

On Politics: Trump Visits North Korea

NYT > Politics - 14 hours ago
Mr. Trump became the first sitting American commander in chief to set foot in the reclusive country.
 
Noise but glad to have it. 
 
11 

Kamala Harris and Classmates Were Bused Across Berkeley. The Experience Changed Them.

Nellie Bowles at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
Fellow Berkeley public school students remember the early days of the integration effort: “We were all just kids trying to figure it out on our own.”
 
It worked more than most.
 
12. 

In New Talks, U.S. May Settle for a Nuclear Freeze by North Korea

Michael Crowley and David E. Sanger at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
The idea taking shape inside the Trump administration would amount to negotiating a nuclear freeze that essentially enshrines the status quo, tacitly accepting the North as a nuclear power.
 
A freeze might be possible. 
 
13 

Ukraine Role Focuses New Attention on Giuliani’s Foreign Work

Kenneth P. Vogel at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
A Ukrainian-Russian developer says he hired the former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani to lobby. Mr. Giuliani says he never lobbied the U.S. government.
 
Giuliani is an evil man.
 
14 

Monday: ISM Mfg, Construction Spending

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 18 hours ago
Weekend: • Schedule for Week of June 30, 2019 Monday: • At 10:00 AM: *ISM Manufacturing Index* for June. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 51.2, down from 52.1 in May. • At 10:00 AM: *Construction Spending* for May. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 are up 23 and DOW futures are up 206 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $59.74 per barrel and Brent at $66.01 barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $77 - so oil prices are down about 20% year-ov... more » 
 
I want to build.
 
15 

U.S. Envoy Swings Sledgehammer in East Jerusalem, and a Metaphor Is Born

David M. Halbfinger at NYT > Politics - 18 hours ago
The ambassador to Israel, David M. Friedman, opened an archaeological site, calling it “undeniable evidence” of Jewish historical claims to Jerusalem.
 
Archaeology matters only to historians.
The crusaders had Jerusalem once.
 
16 

Trump Restarts China Trade Talks, but the Two Sides Remain Far Apart

Alan Rappeport and Keith Bradsher at NYT > Politics - 21 hours ago
As the U.S. eased restrictions on China, the American president faced questions over whether he was giving up too much in return for vague promises.
 
It is only an armistace.
 
17 

For All the Talk of a Tea Party of the Left, Moderates Emerge as a Democratic Power

Julie Hirschfeld Davis at NYT > Politics - 23 hours ago
Liberals like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may get the attention, but a group of moderate Democrats in the House are proving more adept at wielding power.
 
"Fake news". 

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 29, 2019

Tony Wikrent at Ian Welsh - 1 day ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – June 29, 2019 by Tony Wikrent Economics Action Group, North Carolina Democratic Party Progressive Caucus Strategic Political Economy These Three Firms Own Corporate America Jan Fichtner, Eelke Heemskerk, Javier Garcia-Bernardo, May 11, 2017 [The Conversation, via Alternet] Disrupting mainstream economics The new left economics: how a network of thinkers […]
 
Reason to think hard.
The facts may be real. 

For All the Talk of a Tea Party of the Left, Moderates Emerge as a Democratic Power

Julie Hirschfeld Davis at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Liberals like Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez may get the attention, but a group of moderate Democrats in the House are proving more adept at wielding power.
 
It should be Fake News. 

June 2019: Unofficial Problem Bank list increased to 76 Institutions, Q2 2019 Transition Matrix

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 day ago
Note: Surferdude808 compiles an *unofficial* list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources. DISCLAIMER: This is an unofficial list, the information is from public sources and while deemed to be reliable is not guaranteed. No warranty or representation, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein and same is subject to errors and omissions. This is not intended as investment advice. Please contact CR with any errors. Here is the unofficial problem bank list for June 2019. Here are the monthly changes and a few comments from surferdu... more » 
 
Yes.
 
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