Monday, July 8, 2019

@19:25, , 7/7/19

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Sunday Night Futures

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 29 minutes ago
Weekend: • Schedule for Week of July 7, 2019 Monday: • At 3:00 PM, *Consumer Credit* from the Federal Reserve. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $57.63 per barrel and Brent at $64.36 barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $74, and Brent was at $77 - so oil prices are down about 20% year-over-year. Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.75 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.85 per gallon, so gasolin... more » 
 
Investers are not happy with the economy.
 

Why the Trump White House Is Caught Up in the Jeffrey Epstein Scandal

Vivian Wang at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
In the years since Mr. Epstein was first accused of sexually abusing minors, one of Mr. Trump’s Cabinet officials has been accused of letting him off easy.
 
Jail bait is a problem for the entitled.
The Trump administration has more than its share of the entitled.
 

James Monroe Enslaved Hundreds. Their Descendants Still Live Next Door.

Audra D. S. Burch and Miranda Barnes at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
A small African-American community has existed less than 10 miles from the president’s former plantation for generations. Only recently has the full extent of their relationship been revealed.
 
Bankers understand value and property.
Human relations are beyond their comprehension.
 

A Battle of the Sexes in North Carolina Fuels a Wider Republican Clash

Julie Hirschfeld Davis at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
As the party works to cultivate female candidates, a runoff on Tuesday will go a long way toward demonstrating whether it can unite behind a woman.
 
No foetus is aborted casually.
This is a false fight.
 

Starbucks Apologizes After Six Police Officers in Arizona Say They Were Asked to Leave

Sandra E. Garcia at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
A customer complained that the officers’ presence made him feel uncomfortable, prompting a barista to ask them to leave, an organization representing the officers said.
 
The police are feeling excessively priveleged.
 

Trump Officials Dismiss Reports of Disease and Hunger in Border Facilities

Emily Cochrane at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
“It’s an extraordinarily challenging situation,” the acting secretary of homeland security said, but he called many details “unsubstantiated.”
 
Lying is easier than changing policy.
 
There will be further reports from the south west border. 
 

Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – July 6, 2019

Tony Wikrent at Ian Welsh - 5 hours ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – July 6, 2019 by Tony Wikrent Economics Action Group, North Carolina Democratic Party Progressive Caucus I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just What a Pediatrician Saw Inside a Border Patrol Warehouse [The Atlantic, , via Naked Capitalism 7-5-19] Dolly Lucio Sevier evaluated dozens of […]
 
No news.
 

Wayward Democrats Return, but Are Still Under Fire

Vivian Wang and Jesse McKinley at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
For the first time in six years, every Democrat in the New York State Senate is working with the Democratic conference. But they are likely to face re-election challenges from the left.
 
Power games in state politics. 
 

In Leak, U.K. Ambassador Calls Trump Administration ‘Inept’ and ‘Clumsy’

Ellen Barry at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Diplomatic cables containing the British ambassador’s withering assessment of the Trump administration could damage relations at a delicate moment for Britain.
 
A diplomatic description.
 
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Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs During Presidential Terms

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 7 hours ago
By request, here is another update of tracking employment during Presidential terms. We frequently use Presidential terms as time markers - we could use Speaker of the House, Fed Chair, or any other marker. NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for the month they are elected). But that would open a debate on the proper length of the lag, so I'll just stick to the beginning of each term. Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was smaller in the '80s, howe... more » 
 
Noise
 
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Iran Announces New Breach of Nuclear Deal Limits and Threatens Further Violations

David D. Kirkpatrick and David E. Sanger at NYT > Politics - 12 hours ago
The deputy foreign minister said Iran would take additional steps over the limits on uranium enrichment in the accord unless it gets sanctions relief.
 
Trump is behaving badly on Iran. 
 
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In Leak, U.K. Ambassador Calls Trump Administration ‘Inept’ and ‘Clumsy’

Ellen Barry at NYT > Politics - 12 hours ago
Diplomatic cables containing the British ambassador’s withering assessment of the Trump administration could damage relations at a delicate moment for Britain.
 
Truth. 
 
13 

Warren and Harris Rise in Democratic Primary, Challenging Male Front-Runners

Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin at NYT > Politics - 12 hours ago
Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris have surged since the debate, reframing a race that Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders once hoped to control.
 
As they should.
 
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Biden, Under Fire on Race, Apologizes for Remarks on Segregationists

Katie Glueck at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Joe Biden defended his record on race, highlighting his tenure with Barack Obama, and apologized for his remarks on working with segregationists.
 
No forgivness is possible.
 
15 

Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren Introduce Racial Equity Plans

Maggie Astor at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
At the Essence Festival, Ms. Harris called for $100 billion to help black families buy homes, and Ms. Warren called for new rules for federal contracts.
 
Elizabeth Warren has the better plan.
 
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Biden, Under Fire for Civil Rights Record, Stresses Ties to Obama

Katie Glueck at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
In remarks prepared for delivery Saturday, Mr. Biden is expected to say that his rivals want to dissect his decades-long record, but have ignored the eight years he spent serving the nation’s first black president.
 
A nonsequiteur.
 
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Outsider or Insider? How Bernie Sanders Learned to Walk the Line

Glenn Thrush at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Mr. Sanders was met with scorn when he arrived on Capitol Hill in 1990. But in the years since, he has evolved from a gadfly to a reliable team player.
 
It is good that he has learned to walk.
 
18 

Someone Used a Chain Saw to Make a Melania Trump Statue. Few Were Impressed.

Palko Karasz at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
An American artist commissioned a wood carver to create “the first monument to Melania” in her native Slovenia. But some residents were bewildered.
 
 Wooden!
 
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Susan Collins, a Fixture in Maine, Has Twin Troubles: Trump and Kavanaugh

Sheryl Gay Stolberg at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Senator Susan Collins said she would decide this fall whether she would seek re-election, but Maine’s Republican mainstay faces a shifting political landscape.
 
Party loyalty can be trouble.
 
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Schedule for Week of July 7, 2019

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 day ago
The key report this week is June CPI. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. *----- Monday, July 8th -----* 3:00 PM: *Consumer Credit* from the Federal Reserve. *----- Tuesday, July 9th -----* 6:00 AM ET: NFIB *Small Business Optimism Index* for June. [image: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey] 10:00 AM ET: *Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey* for May from the BLS. This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue colu... more » 
 
Cheap labor is always popular with employers. 

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