Monday, June 17, 2019

@9:30, , 6/17/19

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1

NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity took a sharp turn downward in New York State"

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 54 minutes ago
From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity took a *sharp turn downward* in New York State, according to firms responding to the June 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. *The headline general business conditions index plummeted twenty-six points, its largest monthly decline on record, to -8.6*. New orders receded, while shipments increased modestly. Unfilled orders fell, and delivery times and inventories moved slightly lower. Labor market indicators pointed to small declines in employment and hours worked. *The index for number of employees fell eight ... more » 
 
An unhappy number.
 

Elizabeth Warren Is Completely Serious

Emily Bazelon at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
About income inequality. About corporate power. About corrupt politics. And about being America’s next president.
 
Yes.
 

Biden’s Campaign Approach: Run Like It’s a Primary of One

Katie Glueck at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
Mr. Biden is betting that his widespread name recognition and early poll results free him to focus on President Trump — and brush off his 22 Democratic opponents.
 
It shouldn't work.
 

On Politics: Trump Ousts Pollsters

NYT > Politics - 7 hours ago
After the leak of internal polls showing President Trump behind Joe Biden in several key states, the campaign is cutting ties with three of its five pollsters.
 
Shooting the messenger is not an effective tactic.
 
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/15/us/politics/trump-cyber-russia-grid.html
 
Sending in secret agents to perform sabotage of critical systems is often considered an act of war.
It is the equivalent of poisoning the wells.
 
5

Peter Baker, Michael Tackett and Linda Qiu at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
If the president follows through on issuing a plan, it could help shape a presidential race that Democrats would like to focus largely on health care.
 
"Keep your filthy government hands off my Medicare"
The Republican party is correct that socialized medicine is a populer fact.
 

Sunday Night Futures

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 13 hours ago
 
These numbers are not important to me now. 
 
7

Pharma Execs Should Go To Jail and Pharma Should Be Publicly Run

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 15 hours ago
*One vial of insulin cost $21 in 1996, compared to $320 in 2018. The cost of Big Pharma’s outrageous greed is American lives. If they will not end their greed then we will end it for them.* —Bernie Sanders Corporations are bundles of rights. The most important right is a shield from liability. Corporation rights […] 
 
Effective regulation and bargaining would be enough.
 
The Pharma executives would be out and blacklisted.
 
8
 
Vivian Wang at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
The topic is one of the most divisive issues before the State Legislature this year, and Democrats worry it could endanger them politically.
 
"In unity there is strength." 
 
Robert Moses was wrong. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Moses
 

Trump Campaign to Purge Pollsters After Leak of Dismal Results

Peter Baker and Maggie Haberman at NYT > Politics - 18 hours ago

10

Drug Prices Are a Populist Campaign Issue. Here Are the Latest Proposals to Lower Costs.

Katie Thomas at NYT > Politics - 18 hours ago
After years of public outrage, some bipartisan solutions are emerging. But whether they will make it through a divided Washington is still unclear.
 
Bargaining is the best bet short of nationalization.
The others are half measures. 
 
11 

Visa Delays at Backlogged Immigration Service Strand International Students

Erica L. Green at NYT > Politics - 18 hours ago
The Citizenship and Immigration Services agency has increased processing times for applications from international students seeking summer jobs, leaving hundreds stranded.
 
Teaching people is a bargain.
Public records teach.
 
12

Liberals Want Trump Impeached, but Centrist Freshmen May Have the Final Say

Sheryl Gay Stolberg at NYT > Politics - 22 hours ago
The president outrages the Democratic base daily, but the lawmakers who gave Democrats their House majority remain firm that impeachment is not what their constituents want.
 
Let us impeach by election.
 
13 

Sacramento Housing in May: Sales Down 6% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 8% YoY

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 day ago
From SacRealtor.org: May sees increase in sales, inventory The month ended with 1,630 total sales, a 9% increase from the 1,496 sales of April. *Compared to the same month last year (1,730), the current figure is down 5.8%*. ... The Active Listing Inventory increased 10.5% from 2,094 to 2,314 units. The Months of Inventory, however, remained at 1.4 Months. [Note: *Compared to May 2018, inventory is down 7.8%*] . ... The Median DOM (days on market) dropped for the third month, decreasing from 11 to 10 from April to May. The Average DOM also decreased, dropping from 29 to 25. “Days on ... more » 
 
Houses are overpriced.
 
14 

Wall Street Donors Are Swooning for Mayor Pete. (They Like Biden and Harris, Too.)

Shane Goldmacher at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris are generating the most buzz, but for different reasons. Hometown candidates like Kirsten Gillibrand and Bill de Blasio are stirring less excitement.
 
Tactical and trivial.
EMILY'S list works if the contributions are small.
 
15 

‘Catastrophic,’ ‘Cataclysmic’: Trump’s Tariff Threat Has Retailers Sounding Alarm

Nelson D. Schwartz and Sapna Maheshwari at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Struggling to compete against online rivals, retailers could be forced to close more stores if tariffs hit Chinese footwear, toys and apparel, analysts say.
 
Yes 
 
16 

‘Who’s Taking Care of the Kids?’ Is Finally a Question for Dads on the Trail, Too

Lisa Lerer at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Men find themselves making a calculation that women have made for decades: how to pursue public life and parenthood at the same time.
 
Do it or pay for it.
Doing it is more rewarding.
 
17 

Trump Renews Feud With London Mayor, Calling Him a ‘Disaster’

Peter Baker at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
President Trump assailed Sadiq Khan, the mayor, after a spate of knife attacks in Britain’s capital. “He is a national disgrace,” the president wrote.
 
"The pot calls the kettle black."
 
18 

Why The Consensus Environmental Predictions Are Wrong

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 1 day ago
So, a little bit ago I noted that with temperatures of 70 degrees in the arctic, we could expect permafrost to melt, and that would release methane. Methane is a lot stronger greenhouse gas than carbon, in the short run, and there is a lot held in arctic permafrost. It was suggested that this was […]
 
Yes.  The guess is small.
 
20 

In Face-Off With Iran, Escalation May Depend on Who Prevails Inside Washington and Tehran

David E. Sanger and David D. Kirkpatrick at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
The attacks in the Gulf of Oman emboldens the hard-liners in Iran and the U.S., each able to argue their longtime adversary is itching for war.
 
 

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