@23:10, , 6/14/19

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1

As Trump Accuses Iran, He Has One Problem: His Own Credibility

Peter Baker at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago

For any president, accusing another country of an act of war presents a challenge to overcome skepticism at home and abroad. For a president known for falsehoods and bombast, it is far more daunting.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard has competent bomb makers.

2 

A President With a Taste for Planes Has a Plan for Air Force One: Paint It Red, White and Blue

Katie Rogers at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago

“I like the concept of red, white and blue,” Mr. Trump said on Friday. “The baby blue” of the Kennedy era, he said, “doesn’t fit with us.”

A circus parade.

3 

California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 2% YoY in May, Inventory up 15% YoY

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 2 hours ago

From Compass chief economist Selma Hepp: Plenty of Bay Area buyers, but why are they hesitant? • While April’s momentum is slightly slower in May, May sales are still only 2 percent below last year’s highs after double-digit declines earlier in the year. • Home sales momentum remains solid in East Bay. Napa sales finally jumped 6 percent after a 6-month losing streak, averaging 20 percent annual declines. • Affordable sales picked up again with sales of homes priced below $1 million up 3 percent year-over-year, the first two-month consecutive annual increase in the last four years... more » 

The price appears high.

4 

Justice Dept. Backs Mnuchin’s Refusal to Release Trump’s Tax Returns

Alan Rappeport at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago

In a new memo, the department argued that a request from House Democrats for the returns was not legitimate and was only for political purposes.

Both have Trump for the boss.

5 

"Mortgage Rates Just Had Another Awesome Week"

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 4 hours ago

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Just Had Another Awesome Week While we can't say that this week's best mortgage rate offerings were quite as good as last week's best, they were pretty darn close. In fact, quite a few lenders have simply been quoting the same rates for the entire 2-week period. [*30YR FIXED - 3.875%*] emphasis added [image: Mortgage Rates] *Click on graph for larger image.* This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30 year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac). Go to MND and you can adjust the graph for dif... more » 

I don't want a loan.

6 

Roadside Blast in Niger That Hit Americans Shows Growing Threat, Officials Say

Thomas Gibbons-Neff at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago

The explosives were buried roughly three feet underground and positioned at a key choke point on a road that led to a shooting range frequented by American troops.

Niger  is learning.

7 

What the Chinese Communist Party Learned From the Fall of the USSR

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 7 hours ago

Recently I read a speech from 2013 by Xi Jingping, the General Secretary of China’s Communist Party, and China’s leader. In one respect it’s turgid and boring: it’s for insiders, other party members. But in another it’s fascinating. One part that Xi goes on and on about is how there have been different periods in […]

"Religions are special cases of ideology: a subset. All successful ideologies, especially hegemonic ones, must create true believers. When they stop believing, they stop being willing to enforce the ideology (and all ideologies, including ours, democracy and capitalism require enforcement). When they stop being willing to enforce their ideology, it will die."

China is learning to think.  The PRC is nervous.

8 

White House Considers Restoring the Daily Briefing for the Next Press Secretary

Annie Karni at NYT > Politics - 7 hours ago

Stephanie Grisham, currently the spokeswoman for the first lady, Melania Trump, is one of those under consideration to succeed Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

Witch hunting continues.

9 

The U.S. Has Turned Up Pressure on Iran. See the Timeline of Events.

Helene Cooper at NYT > Politics - 7 hours ago

As increased American pressure and sanctions have put a strangle on the Iranian economy, Iran now may be hitting back.

Trump does not do diplomacy.
He is suffering failure.

10 

New York City Allocates $250,000 for Abortions, Challenging Conservative States

Nikita Stewart at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago

The money will go to a nonprofit fund that pays clinics for abortions performed on women who cannot pay, a third of whom live outside New York.

The busses to New York will be full.

11 

The Democratic Debate Lineups Are Set. Here’s What to Expect.

Matt Stevens, Lisa Lerer and Reid J. Epstein at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago

The first night will be Elizabeth Warren’s to lose, while the second will be a four-way showdown between the rest of the top-tier candidates.

Ok

12 

Trump Appoints a Loyalist as ‘Border Czar’ in Latest Immigration Reshuffle

Michael D. Shear and Zolan Kanno-Youngs at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago

The appointment of Thomas D. Homan to oversee border policy is likely to undercut the homeland security secretary’s traditional role as the top official responsible for border security.

Let these in.
Fix the problems that brought them.

13 

Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 11 hours ago

From Merrill Lynch: Core retail sales popped 0.5% mom in May with positive revisions. Industrial production and inventories were also solid. The data lifted *2Q GDP tracking by 0.4pp to 2.5% qoq saar*. 1Q GDP tracking was unchanged at 3.2%.[June 14 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at *1.4% for 2019:Q2* and 1.7% for 2019:Q3 [June 14 estimate]. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the *second quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on June 14*, up fr... more » 

I would like to believe the report.

14 

After Placing Blame for Attacks, Trump Faces Difficult Choices on Confronting Iran

David E. Sanger and Edward Wong at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago

The president has said Tehran will suffer if American interests are threatened. But he has been vague about what his response might be, and the administration is divided.

Listen to the CIA.

15 

Under Fire, Trump Says He Would ‘Absolutely’ Report Foreign Campaign Help

Peter Baker at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago

The president appeared to backtrack on comments earlier in the week when he said he would not necessarily call the F.B.I. if Russia or another hostile power offered damaging information about a rival.

Trump does not think.

16 

‘The Weekly’: The Youngest Known Child Separated From His Family by the Trump Administration

NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago

The Trump administration has lost the mandate of heaven.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandate_of_Heaven

17 

‘I Live This Every Day’: Portraits of Pride in Iowa

Sydney Ember and Jake Naughton at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago

Eight months before the all-important Iowa caucuses, revelers came to the state’s capital to celebrate Pride — and to hear presidential candidates speak about issues that matter to them.

Every vote counts.

The primaries and caucuses will decide.

18 

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Steadfast Trump Fan, Never Wavered

Michael M. Grynbaum at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago

The first mother to serve as White House press secretary stayed true to her boss as she oversaw the fade-out of the daily press briefing.

Trump does not think.

Loyalty was not enough.

19 

Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in May

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 13 hours ago

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization *Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in May after falling 0.4 percent in April*. The indexes for manufacturing and mining gained 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, in May; the index for utilities climbed 2.1 percent. At 109.6 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 2.0 percent higher in May than it was a year earlier. *Capacity utilization for the industrial sector moved up 0.2 percentage point in May to 78.1 percent*, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2018) avera... more » 

Hope has some power.

20

Under Fire, Trump Says He Would ‘Absolutely’ Report Foreign Campaign Help

Peter Baker at NYT > Politics - 13 hours ago

The president appeared to backtrack on comments earlier in the week when he said he would not necessarily call the F.B.I. if Russia or another hostile power offered damaging information about a rival.

Pleading guilty did not help.

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