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Travel
Restaurant Report: Dstage in Madrid
Nervy young chefs like Diego Guerrero are making the Spanish capital an avant-garde culinary destination. Move over, Barcelona.N.Y. / Region
At Kenta in Melville, the Menu Is Adventurous and Fun
A dramatic, torch-lit welcome for diners outside, with meticulous service inside.U.S.
Many Will Need to Repay Health Subsidies
Half of the households that received subsidies to help pay health insurance premiums last year under the Affordable Care Act will probably have to repay some of that money to the federal government, according to a new analysis by the Kaiser Family Foundation.Health
How Ancient Cattle Herders Avoided Sleeping Sickness
A recent study suggests that some people were able to use areas free of tsetse flies to travel south from East Africa more than 2,000 years ago.U.S.
Oklahoma: More Products Are Recalled Over Listeria Fears
A food-borne illness that contributed to the deaths of three people has been traced to a second production facility operated by Blue Bell Ice Cream, a company spokesman and health officials said Tuesday.Science
Mushrooms That Glow to Continue the Species
The green light emitted by some species attracts insects that help spread the plants’ spores.N.Y. / Region
Winning Lottery Numbers for March 23, 2015
Lottery numbers for New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.
March 23, 2015
Midday New York Numbers — 017; Lucky Sum — 8
Midday New York Win 4 — 6358; Lucky Sum — 22
New York Numbers — 944; Lucky Sum — 17
New York Win 4 — 3057; Lucky Sum — 15
New York Take 5 — 12, 15, 24 30, 32
New York Pick 10 — 3, 4, 5, 18, 20, 27, 29, 33, 38, 45, 46, 50, 52, 57, 65, 66, 67, 69, 73, 76
New York Cash 4 Life — 18, 26, 28, 35, 36; Cash Ball — 4
Midday New Jersey Pick 3 — 863
Midday New Jersey Pick 4 — 6897
New Jersey Pick 3 — 402
New Jersey Pick 4 — 0456
New Jersey Cash 5 — 5, 9, 14, 15, 21
New Jersey Pick-6 Lotto — 6, 13, 27, 31, 34, 39
Connecticut Midday 3 — 087
Connecticut Midday 4 — 4639
March 22, 2015
New York Take 5 — 7, 11, 20, 31, 33
Connecticut Daily — 613
Connecticut Play 4 — 2440
Connecticut Cash 5 — 5, 6, 12, 15, 29
Opinion
How Poor Are the Poor?
The question is not merely academic. The way we define the problem affects the lives of millions.N.Y. / Region
Winning Lottery Numbers for March 22, 2015
Lottery numbers for New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.
March 22, 2015
Midday New York Numbers — 007; Lucky Sum — 7
Midday New York Win 4 — 4318; Lucky Sum — 16
New York Numbers — 877; Lucky Sum — 22
New York Win 4 — 6305; Lucky Sum — 14
New York Take 5 — 7, 11, 20, 31, 33
New York Pick 10 — 3, 10, 13, 14, 19, 21, 34, 36, 38, 41, 42, 44, 45, 54, 57, 61, 62, 64, 70, 71
Midday New Jersey Pick 3 — 281
Midday New Jersey Pick 4 — 1012
New Jersey Pick 3 — 164
New Jersey Pick 4 — 3109
New Jersey Cash 5 — 1, 10, 13, 14, 34
Connecticut Midday 3 — 726
Connecticut Midday 4 — 4197
Connecticut Daily — 613
Connecticut Play 4 — 2440
Connecticut Cash 5 — 5, 6, 12, 15, 29
March 21, 2015
New York Lotto — 2, 12, 16, 22, 28, 31; Bonus, 27
New York Take 5 — 13, 14, 18, 26, 30
Powerball — 11, 16, 30, 38, 42; powerball, 7; power play, 4
U.S.
Hawaii Residents Make Way for Volcano’s Lava, Very Slowly
Residents of the Hawaiian town of Pahoa have learned to adapt as a slow-moving lava flow menaces their community.World
Dozens Killed in Multi-Vehicle Crash in Peru
At least 37 people were killed when a bus swerved into oncoming traffic in Peru on Monday, leading to a multi-vehicle collision involving two other buses and a freezer truck, the authorities said.Opinion
Republican Budget Games
How to pay for the nation’s defense spending could lead to another showdown.
I forgot to congratulate Mark Thoma
on his tenth blogoversary, so let me do that now. It’s hard to imagine
what current economic debate would look like without the incredible job
Mark does in assembling and discussing the most important new work,
every day; for sure it would be vastly impoverished. Live long and
prosper, Mark.
Today Mark includes a link to one of his own columns, a characteristically polite and cool-headed response to the latest salvo from David K. Levine. Brad DeLong has also weighed in, less politely.
I’d like to weigh in
with a more general piece of impoliteness, and note a strong empirical
regularity in this whole area. Namely, whenever someone steps up to
declare that Keynesian economics is logically and empirically flawed,
has been proved wrong and refuted, you know what comes next: a series of
logical and empirical howlers — crude errors of reasoning, assertions of fact that can be checked and rejected in a minute or two.
Levine doesn’t disappoint. Right at the beginning of the example he claims refutes Keynesian thinking, he says,
Now suppose that the phone guy suddenly decides he doesn’t like tattoos enough to be bothered building a phone.
OK, stop right there.
That’s an adverse supply shock, and no Keynesian claims that demand-side
policies can cure the economy from the effects of such shocks. If you
have a harvest failure, deficit spending can’t put the crops back in the
fields. But that’s not what happened to the world economy in 2008, or
in 1930; productive capacity was unimpaired, as was the willingness to
work, so what we were looking at was something quite different — a
demand shock, according to most economists, and everything we’ve seen is
consistent with this view.
Actually, it’s even funnier than that: as Nick Rowe
points out, Levine has in effect made phones the medium of exchange, so
that he’s actually modeling something like a contractionary monetary
policy!
And by the way: if you want a simple, homely example of how demand shocks can happen and cause unemployment, there is the baby-sitting coop.
So it’s the usual.
Meanwhile, on the
empirical side: Anti-Keynesians like Levine are actually
anti-monetarists too, although they may not realize it; their whole beef
is with the idea that demand shortfalls can ever be a problem, and that
pumping up demand in any way, monetary or fiscal, can ever be helpful.
And they invariably live under a strange delusion: that the empirical
evidence supports their position. This was never really true, and in
fact the opposite has been the case for more than 30 years.
I could give you a lot
of direct evidence, but let me instead just cite a guy named Chris
Sims, who I think got some kind of prize for statistical work on
economic fluctuations. Here’s his prize lecture, in which he describes his results:
The effects of monetary policy identified this way were quite plausible: a monetary contraction raised interest rates, reduced output and investment, reduced the money stock, and slowly decreased prices … This pattern of results turned out to be robust in a great deal of subse- quent research by others that considered data from other countries and time periods and used a variety of other approaches
Here’s how I see it:
by any normal set of intellectual criteria, this debate should have been
over 25 years ago. The evidence that monetary shocks have real effects
was and is overwhelming, and it’s very difficult to write down a model
in which this is true but in which fiscal policy is never effective at
least on some occasions. The spectacular success of liquidity-trap
predictions these past 6 years is just icing on the cake.
To understand why
anti-Keynesian delusions persist, then, we need to turn to other social
sciences, and try to make sense of the sociological forces that keep
these delusions alive."
Technology
Video: Distracted Teenagers Behind the Wheel
A sampling of videos showing the six seconds leading up to a crash caused by distracted teenage drivers. Researchers analyzed almost 1,700 such videos to study the causes of such traffic accidents.World
Christian Pastor in China Gets One-Year Prison Term in Battle Over Crosses
Huang Yizi was sentenced by the People’s Court in Pingyang County after being convicted of “gathering crowds to disturb social order.”N.Y. / Region
A Review: At Coals in Bronxville, Pizza’s on the Grill
This restaurant’s grilled pizzas with superthin crusts, once available only in the Bronx and Port Chester, are topped with fresh ingredients.N.Y. / Region
Robert Durst Is Denied Bail at Hearing in New Orleans
Citing both Mr. Durst’s history and the things they found in his hotel room, prosecutors said they believed that he might have been planning to flee to Cuba.Science
With Expansion of Medicaid, Some States Are Identifying More New Diabetes Cases
A new study suggests that because of the Affordable Care Act, the disease is being diagnosed earlier in poor Americans.N.Y. / Region
Winning Lottery Numbers for March 24, 2015
Lottery numbers for New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.
March 24, 2015
Midday New York Numbers — 727; Lucky Sum — 16
Midday New York Win 4 — 2744; Lucky Sum — 17
New York Numbers — 189; Lucky Sum — 18
New York Win 4 — 6436; Lucky Sum — 19
New York Take 5 — 8, 12, 15, 21, 29
New York Pick 10 — 1, 10, 14, 17, 20, 25, 28, 36, 42, 53, 55, 57, 58, 60, 68, 69, 73, 75, 78, 80
Midday New Jersey Pick 3 — 599
Midday New Jersey Pick 4 — 7524
New Jersey Pick 3 — 739
New Jersey Pick 4 — 0516
New Jersey Cash 5 — 4, 27, 28, 35, 38
Mega Millions —2, 23, 32, 45, 55; Mega Ball, 12
Connecticut Midday 3 — 145
Connecticut Midday 4 — 1501
Connecticut Daily — 772
Connecticut Play 4 — 2348
Connecticut Cash 5 — 10, 16, 25, 27, 28
Connecticut Classic Lotto — 10, 12, 21, 23, 32, 35
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