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World
Egypt Says It Rejected American Over Visa
Michele Dunne, a former American diplomat, was turned away at the Cairo airport in a move that had been seen as possible evidence of the military’s crackdown on dissent.The Upshot
A Big Safety Net and Strong Job Market Can Coexist. Just Ask Scandinavia.
Sweden, Denmark and Norway may have a lesson for the United States. Their welfare benefits make it easier for people to work.U.S.
Secret Service, Stretched Too Thin, Needs More Agents, Report Says
The report released by the Department of Homeland Security also said the next director should come from outside the agency.U.S.
Nebraska and Oklahoma Sue Colorado Over Marijuana Law
Nebraska and Oklahoma argued that marijuana has entered their states, leading to more arrests, more impounded vehicles and higher jail and court costs.Business Day
Finding the Floor, or Ceiling, for Oil Prices
The dividing line between monopolistic oil pricing and a competitive market is around $50 a barrel. Both have been seen as OPEC's power has waxed and waned.Science
A Horned Reminder of Montana’s Past
Researchers have discovered the oldest known horned dinosaur species from the early Cretaceous in North America.World
Malnutrition Hits Millions of Children in Yemen
The country, which has one of the highest rates of child malnutrition, is struggling through a failing transition to democracy and facing a rebel uprising.Opinion
Narrowing India's Horizons
Enshrining a Hindu text as the official national sacred book is an affront to democracy.World
E.U. Confirms Wide Fraud in Afghan Presidential Runoff Election
The report from European Union election observers offered the fullest picture yet of the allegations of fraud that plagued the election.World
As Election Looms, Britain Ponders ‘English Question’
After Scotland won more powers in its rejection of independence, the burning question now is deciding how to deal with measures that concern only England.Automobiles
Less Is More With the 2014 Honda CBR650F
A new sportbike from Honda demonstrates that you don’t need a load of electronic gadgets to enjoy a long-distance motorcycle ride.World
Greenpeace Won’t Name Activists, Peru Says
Peruvian officials said Greenpeace had refused to hand over the names of activists who placed a sign in a protected area near ancient etchings in the desert.Opinion
The Rise of ‘Welfare Chauvinism’
In Europe, populist right-wing parties have become proponents of a more lavish, but also more restrictive, welfare state. Could that happen here?U.S.
Arizona: Sheriff Arpaio Will Disband Squad That Searches for Illegal Immigrants
The Maricopa County sheriff, known for crackdowns on people living in the country illegally, is giving up his last major foothold in immigration enforcement efforts.World
Belgium: Unions Fight Austerity Policies
A general strike paralyzed air and rail traffic in Belgium and idled scores of companies across the country on Monday as trade unions capped a month of labor action against government austerity policies.U.S.
Massachusetts: Sex-Change Surgery Denied to Inmate
A divided federal appeals court on Tuesday overturned a ruling ordering state prison officials to provide taxpayer-funded sex-reassignment surgery for an inmate convicted of murder.N.Y. / Region
De Blasio Reluctantly Supports ‘Taxi of Tomorrow’
New York City officials said a revised agreement with Nissan included several notable changes, suggesting the contract was no longer the “exclusive” agreement its critics had long denounced.Opinion
Are Midwives Safer Than Doctors?
For many women, midwives offer good, cost-effective maternity care. There is no reason that their role should not be expanded.World
Security Bill Provokes Uproar in Kenya’s Parliament
Lawmakers tussled with one another on Thursday, when a counterterrorism measure was passed giving more power to the security services and the president.N.Y. / Region
New York Archdiocese Appears Likely to Shutter More Churches
Documents show that Cardinal Timothy M. Dolan has proposed that an additional 38 parishes merge, in addition to the 112 that were announced in November.U.S.
Illinois: Governor and Republicans Spar Over Replacing Dead Comptroller
Gov. Pat Quinn has called state lawmakers back to Springfield next month to consider a 2016 special election to replace the late Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka — a move Republicans attributed to partisan motives.
Sunday Review
How School Segregation Divides Ferguson — and the United States
Education in St. Louis is separate and unequal.World
China Protests Planned U.S. Sale of Warships to Taiwan
A Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman said President Obama’s approval of the transfer of four used frigates “brutally interferes in China’s domestic affairs.”Automobiles
A Reluctant Farewell to an Unlikely Mechanical Friend
Too old to be nice, too young to be vintage and not rare enough to be cool, a beat-up Subaru becomes a character in a human drama.The Upshot
Rethinking the Goal of 2% Inflation
A target that started 25 years ago in New Zealand has become the gospel of governments worldwide. But critics say it leaves central banks with too little flexibility.Switzerland and the Inflation Hawks
I tend to go
on a lot about the persistence of inflation paranoia, but it is an
amazing thing. A lot of people have been predicting soaring inflation
since 2009 if not earlier, and have refused to change their views even
though actual events have been nothing like what they predicted — and
almost exactly what liquidity-trap theorists predicted, in advance.
There are, however,
different levels of denial here. The inflation truthers insist that the
government is hiding the real numbers; they’re basically nut cases, with
nothing going for them except immense wealth and power. But even among
normally sensible conservative economists there has been a remarkable
determination to see the non-inflationary story as somehow the result of
very special circumstances. For example, Martin Feldstein and others
have claimed that it’s all about the 0.25 percent, that’s right, 0.25
percent interest rate the Fed has been paying on excess reserves.
Without that, they say, quantitative easing would indeed have produced
the big inflation they keep predicting.
So, can we talk about Switzerland?
Switzerland has never paid interest on reserves — and lately it has taken to doing the opposite, charging banks
0.25 percent for the privilege of parking their money at the central
bank. So has the Swiss National Bank’s huge increase in the monetary
base, which dwarfs what the Fed has done, produced inflation?
Well, look at the
included chart. Monetary base up by a factor of eight. Money supply up
by much less, because banks didn’t lend the funds out. And consumer
prices flat, indeed flirting with deflation.
This is all exactly what a basic liquidity trap model — the one I laid out in 1998 — predicted. So the inflationistas are finally going to concede their mistake, right?
Hey, who said economists lack a sense of humor?
N.Y. / Region
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