1
Opinion
Obama's 'All of the Above' Energy and Environment Nominees
President Obama’s cabinet choices on environment and energy reflect his middle-path approach to governing.
2
N.Y. / Region
Speaking Fees Bring Booker $1 Million; He Says He ‘Kept Very Little of It, if Any’
Mayor Cory A. Booker of Newark, who is running for Senate, pledged to put forth a full accounting of his outside earnings.
3
U.S.
Lax Policing of Doctor and Pharmacy Conflicts Is Found in Medicare Coverage Decisions
According to a new report, the federal Medicare agency had not clearly defined “conflict of interest” and did not enforce standards to prevent such conflicts from influencing coverage decisions.
4
Technology
F.C.C. Backs Consumers in Unlocking of Cellphones
The White House and the Federal Communications Commission said consumers should be free to unlock their phones once contracts are satisfied.
5
Opinion
A Scientist’s Misguided Crusade
James Hansen hurts his climate cause with an obsession with the Keystone XL pipeline.
6
U.S.
Long-Overshadowed Bay Bridge Will Go From Drab Gray to Glowing
An art installation, billed as the world’s largest L.E.D. sculpture, is set to illuminate the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, the Golden Gate’s long-overshadowed rival.
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8
U.S.
A Divide on Voting Rights in a Town Where Blood Spilled
McComb, Miss., was a battleground in the war for voting rights in the South. Residents disagree over whether their state and eight others need federal approval for changes.
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10
11
Business Day
Improving Security Checks to Help the Disabled
The T.S.A. is promoting its program for disabled travelers after a clumsy security check involving a 3-year-old girl last month at the St. Louis airport.
12
13
World
Fire in Senegal Kills Child Beggars Trapped in House
At least nine children died in a fire in Dakar, including seven boys who beg and study the Koran under the guidance of a holy man.
14
U.S.
As Automatic Budget Cuts Go Into Effect, Poor May Be Hit Particularly Hard
Unless a deal is reached, the $85 billion in cuts will affect programs that help low-income Americans, including those that provide housing vouchers and fortified baby formula.
15
Opinion
Breast Cancer Rates
A vice president of Susan G. Komen for the Cure writes about a new study of cancer in younger women.
16
N.Y. / Region
In Diverse City, Audiences Where Every Joke Translates
New York City has a polyglot lineup of immigrant comedians, appealing to niche audiences or seeking to build a mainstream following.
17
Style
Pregnant Without a Policy in Graduate School
Do graduate schools, in medicine or anything else, support pregnant students, or leave them at the mercy of individual instructors?
18
Style
Research: A.D.H.D. Remains a Problem for Adults
Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder doesn’t just “go away” in adulthood.
19
World
Green Groups Decry Sequester's Effects
From environmental programs to renewable energy support to all kinds of inspections, the more than $80 billion in automatic budget cuts will have an impact.
20
Business Day
When Software Vendors Take Their Time
The business group considered what, if anything, Ms. Parker could do to address the problem at this late stage.
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7
Real Estate
Q & A
9
10
Health
Fear of Falling
For many seniors, the real risk and potential complications of falls can be exceeded by the morbid fear associated with going to the ground.
11
Opinion
Hip Replacement Device
DePuy Orthopaedics,
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13
16
Opinion
Breast Cancer Rates
A vice president of Susan G. Komen for the Cure writes about a new study of cancer in younger women.
17
N.Y. / Region
In Diverse City, Audiences Where Every Joke Translates
New York City has a polyglot lineup of immigrant comedians, appealing to niche audiences or seeking to build a mainstream following.
18
Style
Research: A.D.H.D. Remains a Problem for Adults
Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder doesn’t just “go away” in adulthood.
19
World
Green Groups Decry Sequester's Effects
From environmental programs to renewable energy support to all kinds of inspections, the more than $80 billion in automatic budget cuts will have an impact.
20
Education
Racist Incidents Stun Campus and Halt Classes at Oberlin
A liberal campus is jolted by slurs, swastikas and a late-night sighting of someone in a robe and hood.
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5
7
Real Estate
Q & A
9
10
Health
Fear of Falling
For many seniors, the real risk and potential complications of falls can be exceeded by the morbid fear associated with going to the ground.
11
Opinion
Hip Replacement Device
DePuy Orthopaedics,
12
13
16
Opinion
Breast Cancer Rates
17
20
Health
The Roving Runner: There's the Steeple
The Roving Runner column returns to explore routes in unfamiliar places, or in familiar places but from a new perspective.
2
Real Estate
Q & A
4
5
Health
Fear of Falling
6
7
10
Opinion
Breast Cancer Rates
11
14
World
Caught in North Korea, Sold in China, Crabs Knit Two Economies
In a border town in China’s cold and poor northeast, a bridge serves as the gateway for a lively commerce in North Korean shellfish.
15
Health
The Roving Runner: There's the Steeple
The Roving Runner column returns to explore routes in unfamiliar places, or in familiar places but from a new perspective.
16
Health
For a Hospice Pioneer, Still a Tough Call
For more than 25 years, Paul Brenner led nonprofit hospice organizations. Yet when his health faltered, choosing to become a hospice patient himself proved unexpectedly difficult.
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Opinion
More Cameras for New York City Streets
The State Legislature should permit New York City to enforce its speed limits and traffic rules.
18
Opinion
Occupy Rice Paddy
Despite reforms in Myanmar, many grievances remain and the downtrodden are less and less afraid to express them.
20
N.Y. / Region
Developing Education Initiatives for City's Young Mexican Immigrants
A foundation’s efforts are progressing, with 17 proposals for preliminary grants now under review.
1
Health
Fear of Falling
2
Opinion
Breast Cancer Rates
;
3
8
10
Opinion
Occupy Rice Paddy
12
13
Style
What Parental Leave Does Your Employer Offer?
We’re tracking America’s corporate family leave policies.
14
Business Day
Wells Fargo Ex-Broker Is Sentenced to 2 Years
A Wells Fargo broker who pleaded guilty to defrauding more than a dozen clients is sentenced to two years in jail.
15
World
Blast Kills at Least 45 Pakistanis in Shiite District of Karachi
The attack suggests Sunni militant groups are widening their brutal campaign against the country’s Shiite minority.
16
Business
A Boy Saved by Oskar Schindler: Memoir Will Tell the Story
Leon Leyson was 10 when the Germans invaded Poland, but was saved, along with some members of his family, by Oskar Schindler, who employed them in his factories.
17
Business Day
Euro Zone Reports Record Joblessness and Low Inflation
The data are likely to put pressure on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates at its next meeting.Why Don’t We Have Deflation?
Whenever
you see a piece suggesting that the US economy has entered a “new
normal” of slow growth, you’re likely to see someone making the argument
that if the economy actually had lots of excess capacity, we should be
seeing deflation. And the question of why we don’t have deflation is a
good one. It is, however, a question that people like me have answered
repeatedly; unfortunately, it seems that this analysis hasn’t been
making it to, say, a number of current and former Fed officials.
So here’s a restatement of what we think we know. Long-time readers will find this familiar, but as a number of commenters have wisely pointed out, there are a lot of people reading this blog now who weren’t reading it a year or two ago. (We’re adding Twitter followers at around 20,000 a month, which is some indication of the number of newbies).
OK, first things first: back when the crisis started, I did expect to see deflation, Japanese style, if it went on for an extended period. I was wrong — and I did what you’re supposed to do (but far too people actually do) when they’re wrong, which is to look for an explanation of your error that is consistent with the available evidence.
One immediate thing to look at was to see whether what was happening to inflation in the United States was consistent with historical experience of deep slumps that we know involved the economy operating well below capacity for an extended period. And it turned out that the Japanese deflation (which has never been very fast in any case) is pretty much unique. The IMF looked at Protracted Large Output Gaps — PLOGs — and found that in general inflation gets squeezed toward, but not below, zero:
And
our own history actually points in the same direction: the 1930s were
marked by sharp deflation in the early years, but considerable inflation
as the economy partially recovered, even though unemployment remained
very high.
So inflation seems “sticky”. But why? One immediate thought was that we might be looking at the effects of downward nominal wage rigidity: employers are very reluctant to engage in actual wage cuts. Way back in 1996 Akerlof, Dickens and Perry suggested that this would make inflation stubborn at low rates, breaking the usual link between high unemployment and disinflation.
Still, how can you tell if sticky inflation reflects sticky wages, as opposed to being the result of an economy that really doesn’t have very much slack? The answer is that sticky wages should leave a “signature” in the wage data: a large number of workers whose wages neither rise nor fall, and a rising number of such workers as the economy slumps. Sure enough, researchers at the San Franciso Fed found exactly that:
Actually, once you start looking for it, downward nominal rigidity is everywhere. For example, Catherine Rampell had a great piece pointing out that starting salaries at elite law firms have been frozen at precisely $160,000 for years:
The
bottom line is that we have a lot of evidence suggesting that the
failure of deflation to materialize reflects wage rigidity, not absence
of economic slack. And it is therefore frustrating to see supposedly
well-informed people talk about this issue as if none of that work had
been done."
So here’s a restatement of what we think we know. Long-time readers will find this familiar, but as a number of commenters have wisely pointed out, there are a lot of people reading this blog now who weren’t reading it a year or two ago. (We’re adding Twitter followers at around 20,000 a month, which is some indication of the number of newbies).
OK, first things first: back when the crisis started, I did expect to see deflation, Japanese style, if it went on for an extended period. I was wrong — and I did what you’re supposed to do (but far too people actually do) when they’re wrong, which is to look for an explanation of your error that is consistent with the available evidence.
One immediate thing to look at was to see whether what was happening to inflation in the United States was consistent with historical experience of deep slumps that we know involved the economy operating well below capacity for an extended period. And it turned out that the Japanese deflation (which has never been very fast in any case) is pretty much unique. The IMF looked at Protracted Large Output Gaps — PLOGs — and found that in general inflation gets squeezed toward, but not below, zero:
So inflation seems “sticky”. But why? One immediate thought was that we might be looking at the effects of downward nominal wage rigidity: employers are very reluctant to engage in actual wage cuts. Way back in 1996 Akerlof, Dickens and Perry suggested that this would make inflation stubborn at low rates, breaking the usual link between high unemployment and disinflation.
Still, how can you tell if sticky inflation reflects sticky wages, as opposed to being the result of an economy that really doesn’t have very much slack? The answer is that sticky wages should leave a “signature” in the wage data: a large number of workers whose wages neither rise nor fall, and a rising number of such workers as the economy slumps. Sure enough, researchers at the San Franciso Fed found exactly that:
18
Business Day
Report Casts Doubt on Britain’s Nuclear Electricity Strategy
Britain’s plans to build a raft of nuclear power plants by 2025 are “ambitious” at best and “unrealistic” at worst, according to a report to by a committee of the House of Commons.
19
Business Day
When Software Vendors Take Their Time
The business group considered what, if anything, Ms. Parker could do to address the problem at this late stage.
20
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