1
Opinion
Exploring Climate Resilience and Energy Sense
Adaption to heat is a prime imperative even as the much tougher task of moving beyond conventional use of fossil fuels is pursued.
2
Opinion
Europe's Example
Anyone who thinks the sequester won’t hurt the economy should study the impact of austerity on the euro zone.
3
Business Day
Judge Upholds S.E.C. Freeze on Account Tied to Suspicious Heinz Trades
The hearing did nothing to illuminate the identity of the suspect trader, a mystery confounding regulators and complicating the case. No one appeared in court on Friday to represent or defend the traders.
4
Business Day
Parental Leave: What Does Your Employer Offer?
Bucks readers are asked to help provide a progress report that will highlight paid parental leave policies at their employers.
5
N.Y. / Region
Big Ticket | Spacious for Artwork, Sold for $21 Million
A Manhattan duplex apartment, one of just 28 residences at 733 Park Avenue, has 4,250 square feet of space inside and 1,250 square feet of terraces.
7
Opinion
The Rove Machine
Newt Gingrich attacks Karl Rove in yet another example of the fracturing of the right wing.
8
N.Y. / Region
Step-by-Step Instructions for Crime-Solving in the City
The New York Police Department has been moving, through a series of memos, to standardize detective work and codify crime-solving tactics that had mostly existed as an oral tradition.
9
N.Y. / Region
MetroCards Become More Flexible
Bus and train riders can now fill their MetroCards with both unlimited-ride time and pay-per-ride dollars, and avoid the need for a second card, which soon will cost $1.
10
World
Ensnared in the Trap of Memory
A storm of controversy has greeted Ping Fu's recent memoir, especially her recollections of the Cultural Revolution. But government constraints make either refuting or defending it hard to do.
11
World
China Rejects U.N. Arbitration of Maritime Dispute
China said Tuesday that it had rejected the Philippines’ attempt to seek international arbitration over conflicting claims to territory in the South China Sea.
12
Sports
A Hockey Pioneer’s Moment
Larry Kwong was the first hockey player of Chinese descent to appear in the N.H.L., playing briefly for the Rangers during the 1947-48 season.
13
Opinion
Cry, the Misogynistic Country
The Pistorius case shows that violent crime is not limited to the poor or committed only by impoverished blacks against wealthy whites.
14
Opinion
In Child Development, Early Intervention Is Vital
John Brademas, N.Y.U. president emeritus and a former member of the House, responds to a column by Gail Collins.
15
World
Human Rights Watch Faults Mexico Over Disappearances
The organization said in a report that Mexico has “the most severe crisis of enforced disappearances in Latin America in decades.”
16
U.S.
A Titan’s How-To on Breaking the Glass Ceiling
Sheryl Sandberg, the chief operating officer of Facebook, is attempting nothing less than a Betty Friedan-like feat: a national discussion of a gender problem with no name.
17
U.S.
A Titan’s How-To on Breaking the Glass Ceiling
Sheryl Sandberg, the chief operating officer of Facebook, is attempting nothing less than a Betty Friedan-like feat: a national discussion of a gender problem with no name.
18
U.S.
Survey Finds That Fish Are Often Not What Label Says
A new study of fish bought and genetically tested in 12 metropolitan areas in the United States found that about one-third of the samples were mislabeled.
19
U.S.
Flu Shot Less Effective for the Elderly
This year’s flu shot is not protecting older people very well from the harshest strain this season, proving only 9 percent effective, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Thursday.
20
Business Day
The Tax Advantages Behind an Oil Deal
Linn Energy’s acquisition of Berry Petroleum is the first time an oil-producing master limited partnership has swallowed a whole exploration company.Austerity Europe
Some readers have been asking me for the data source for Paul De Grauwe’s
measure of austerity. I’m working on it. Meanwhile, however — and
partly for my own reference — I discovered that I can do a similar
exercise over a somewhat longer time horizon, which I’m posting in large
part as a note to myself.
Now, measuring austerity is tricky. You can’t just use budget surpluses or deficits, because these are affected by the state of the economy. You can — and I often have — use “cyclically adjusted” budget balances, which are supposed to take account of this effect. This is better; however, these numbers depend on estimates of potential output, which themselves seem to be affected by business cycle developments.
So the best measure, arguably, would look directly at policy changes. And it turns out that the IMF Fiscal Monitor provides us with those estimates, as a share of potential GDP, for selected countries from 2009 to 2012 (Table 15). What I’ve done is to plot those estimates (horizontal axis) against changes in real GDP from 2008 to 2012 (vertical axis). Here it is:
The implied multiplier is 1.2; the R-squared is 0.84.
In normal life, a result like this would be considered overwhelming confirmation of the proposition that austerity has large negative impacts. Yes, you can concoct elaborate stories about how it could be wrong; but it’s really reaching. It seems safe to say that what we have here is a case in which rival theories made different predictions, the predictions of one theory proved completely wrong while those of the other were totally vindicated — but in which adherents of the failed theory, for political and ideological reasons, refuse to accept the facts."
Now, measuring austerity is tricky. You can’t just use budget surpluses or deficits, because these are affected by the state of the economy. You can — and I often have — use “cyclically adjusted” budget balances, which are supposed to take account of this effect. This is better; however, these numbers depend on estimates of potential output, which themselves seem to be affected by business cycle developments.
So the best measure, arguably, would look directly at policy changes. And it turns out that the IMF Fiscal Monitor provides us with those estimates, as a share of potential GDP, for selected countries from 2009 to 2012 (Table 15). What I’ve done is to plot those estimates (horizontal axis) against changes in real GDP from 2008 to 2012 (vertical axis). Here it is:
In normal life, a result like this would be considered overwhelming confirmation of the proposition that austerity has large negative impacts. Yes, you can concoct elaborate stories about how it could be wrong; but it’s really reaching. It seems safe to say that what we have here is a case in which rival theories made different predictions, the predictions of one theory proved completely wrong while those of the other were totally vindicated — but in which adherents of the failed theory, for political and ideological reasons, refuse to accept the facts."
Little Statesmen and Philosophers
So, people want me to comment on the Moody’s downgrade of Britain.
No real news there. As a guide to the future, ratings agency judgments
are literally worse than useless; remember, US bond yields actually fell
after the 2011 S&P downgrade. Still, it’s kind of a poke in the eye
for Cameron/Osborne, who are subjecting their country to pointless
austerity because confidence!
But they won’t change course; basically, they can’t, for careerist reasons. And that’s the story of a lot of what’s going on now.
Ralph Waldo Emerson understood this. The original version of his famous quote — I had forgotten this — reads:
Pretty much the same thing is going on among pundits now stuck in what Jonathan Chait memorably calls the “fever swamp of the center”. Suppose that some pundit who has spent his whole career calling for bipartisanship, a compromise between the extremes of left and right, were to admit the plain fact that Obama is very much a centrist, who is in particular proposing deficit reduction through exactly the kind of mix of tax hikes and spending cuts “centrist” pundits demand — and that the GOP, by contrast, is an extremist organization whose extremism is almost solely responsible for the bitterness of the partisan divide. A pundit making that admission would in effect be saying that everything he has said and done for the past several years was not just useless but harmful, actively misleading readers about the state of the debate. He just can’t do it.
The point is that a large part of the reason we’re locked into such a mess is careerism. And yes, that’s quite vile, if you think about it: politicians and pundits alike letting the world burn — probably unconsciously, but still — because their personal position would be hurt if they admitted to past mistakes."
But they won’t change course; basically, they can’t, for careerist reasons. And that’s the story of a lot of what’s going on now.
Ralph Waldo Emerson understood this. The original version of his famous quote — I had forgotten this — reads:
A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.I don’t know about the divines bit, but the little statesmen thing is completely accurate. Suppose George Osborne were to admit that austerity isn’t working. What, then, would be left of his claim to be qualified to do, well, anything? He has to stick it out until something turns up,no matter how many lives it destroys.
Pretty much the same thing is going on among pundits now stuck in what Jonathan Chait memorably calls the “fever swamp of the center”. Suppose that some pundit who has spent his whole career calling for bipartisanship, a compromise between the extremes of left and right, were to admit the plain fact that Obama is very much a centrist, who is in particular proposing deficit reduction through exactly the kind of mix of tax hikes and spending cuts “centrist” pundits demand — and that the GOP, by contrast, is an extremist organization whose extremism is almost solely responsible for the bitterness of the partisan divide. A pundit making that admission would in effect be saying that everything he has said and done for the past several years was not just useless but harmful, actively misleading readers about the state of the debate. He just can’t do it.
The point is that a large part of the reason we’re locked into such a mess is careerism. And yes, that’s quite vile, if you think about it: politicians and pundits alike letting the world burn — probably unconsciously, but still — because their personal position would be hurt if they admitted to past mistakes."
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