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Tony
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Does IMF Stand for Impressive Macroeconomic Flexibility?
So the IMF is holding a meeting on rethinking macroeconomic policy (I was invited but couldn’t make the timing work.) And the Fund’s chief economist has already made it clear that he’s open to some serious revision of the prevailing paradigm.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/07/reactions-and-overreactions/
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/04/07/euroblown-fear-not-clubmed-debtors-for-the-elysian-fields-shall-be-yours/"There is no chance of another Greek debt restructuring, the managing director of the Institute of International Finance, Charles Dallara, told media folks today. “Greece has entered a path of growth and security” he said.
Lots of other sources said something different. An Austrian Economy Ministry survey, for example, said that Greece ranks last among 14 European countries in attracting new enterprises and investment. And Further cuts will be needed if Greece is to adhere to the midterm fiscal plan it voted for last year, PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos told Der Spiegel."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/9183925/Lord-Wolfson-prize-How-to-escape-the-euro-with-the-minimum-of-pain.html
6:00AM BST 04 Apr 2012"The euro is a malfunctioning monetary union that was put together for political reasons. It is a currency in search of a government. Despite its inauspicious beginnings, the system could be made to work – but not under the current arrangements and probably not with the current membership.The best way forward would be to undo this structure and put together a grouping of countries that could plausibly combine monetary, fiscal and political union. To this end, Germany should leave the euro, taking with her like-minded members, and leaving the southern countries to inherit the euro, thereby splitting the eurozone into north and south.This is not impossible, but it is not the most likely scenario. Moreover, unless it is a serious practical possibility, thinking about it is not of much use to the governments of troubled peripheral countries. As they face decades of depression, it is hardly open to them to respond by telling Germany that it should leave the euro.In practical terms, what can and should they do? Can the enormous practical difficulties of leaving the euro be overcome?Leaving the euro would represent a combination of currency redenomination and devaluation. Each of these has umpteen precedents and the experience of such episodes can teach us much. But the combination is, I think, unprecedented.The best way to prepare a plan for euro exit would be to discuss it openly. But this would not be possible without precipitating huge outflows of money, which would cause a banking collapse. Accordingly, preparations must be made in secret. Moreover, once a decision has been made, a government must act straight away.
Yet this short time-frame leads to a second key problem: it will be impossible to have new notes and coins available immediately. This is unfortunate, but it is not as serious as is often imagined. Monetary technology has advanced enormously since the key historical examples of when new currencies needed to be introduced.
Cash is now the small change of the monetary system. Payments can be made by credit and debit cards, and electronic transfers. For many small transactions, of course, new notes and coins will still be needed. Until these are available, the authorities should allow euro notes and coins to be used.
In order to facilitate their convenient use and to boost confidence in the new regime, the new currency, say the drachma, should be introduced at parity with the euro. Accordingly, where a price used to be €1.35, it would now be 1.35 drachmas. Of course, the drachma would be free to fall on the foreign exchange markets and indeed it is vital that it should do so.
If any of the weaker members of the eurozone left, their currencies would probably depreciate by something like 30pc to 50pc. International experience suggests that the consequent spike in inflation can be short-lived.
Just before departure, some form of capital controls would be essential, including closure of the banks. But after departure, capital controls should be used sparingly, and withdrawn as soon as possible.
An exiting country would face a huge problem with its debt – quite unlike the experience of classic devaluations, such as the UK’s in 1992. For once it has left the euro, its debt will be denominated in what will then be a foreign currency – and in relation to relevant domestic values, such as tax revenue, the value of that debt will have soared. The government should redenominate its debt in the new national currency and make clear its intention to renegotiate the terms of this debt. This is likely to involve a substantial default – enough to cut the ratio of debt to GDP to 60pc.
To restore confidence further, the exiting country should immediately announce a regime of inflation targeting, adopt a set of tough fiscal rules, and outlaw wage indexation. If necessary, the central bank should stand ready to inject liquidity into its own banking system. The monetary authorities should also announce their willingness to recapitalise the banks.
The authorities should provide to the private sector guidance on the legal issues, including the impact on international contracts currently denominated in euros and the country’s membership of the European Union – which it should seek to maintain.
There is no doubt that euro exit would be messy and – if handled badly – extremely damaging, not only for the country concerned, but also for the rest of us. But it needn’t be handled badly. Indeed, there are ways of dealing effectively with all the key practical difficulties.
If handled well, euro exit could present weak peripheral members with a much better prospect than remaining in the euro. Moreover, their exit could enhance the prosperity of the rest of Europe – and the wider world."
Not looking good.
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madhu
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Guard Led 3 Americans Across Iran Border, Released Hiker Says
“Guard Led 3 Americans Across Iran Border, Released Hiker Says - http://nyti.ms/dr8DwQ #FREEallTHREE #UShostages”We really have to talk to other governments.Iran does not respond well to demands.
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msobie166
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Online Health Sites Share Personal Data, Privacy Groups Say
“This article gave me food for thought- Online Health Sites Share Personal Data, Privacy Groups Say - http://nyti.ms/i3xPTy”The only solution I can think of is anonymity. We must get better cookie control. Just clear the cookies off. Reload the operating system and browsers at regular intervals.Subscriptions are a bother. Put them on a disk that gets reloaded.There may be an opportunity there.
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jeffleopold
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A Piece of Mets History, Rewritten in Stone
“OK -- who is doing the fact checking for the Mets? Can't they even get their own history right? - http://nyti.ms/97hUqy”
Baseball is just a game.This is more attention than the incident rated.
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DesertDreamer
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Guard Led 3 Americans Across Iran Border, Released Hiker Says
“Guard Led 3 Americans Across Iran Border, Released Hiker Says - http://nyti.ms/dr8DwQ #FREEallTHREE #UShostages”
This was a diplomatic failure. Such things must not be encouraged.
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21:10, 04/07/12 444444444444444444444
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Submit Tappan Zee Bridge Redesigns - The New York Times
The Tappan Zee Bridge has never been hailed as an aesthetic marvel, but maybe it’s not too late for improvement. With plans to replace it in the works, some are calling for it to be turned into a park and walkway. Send us your drawings and desig...
I am having some difficulty with this proposition.I think the whole proposition is wrong.Good ways to relieve traffic congestion are a higher price for fuel or a usage based toll. We will see higher fuel prices.A replacement bridge would cut off half the space this bridge passes through.A park that was a long highway bridge will require foot access and probably parking and a trolly that stops on demand.Night use? Suicide prevention?http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tappan_Zee_Bridge4.881 miles long. A couple of hours for a one way transitBetter to spend the money on the rail tunnels from N.J. to Brooklyn. -
Demystifying Conducting
I am really glad I do not need to try to be a musician.
I have never been able to give it enough attention. -
TimesCast | From Dissident to Lawmaker
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/myanmar/index.html?scp=1-spot&sq=myanmar&st=cse
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bm.html
Buddhist 89%, Christian 4% (Baptist 3%, Roman Catholic 1%), Muslim 4%, animist 1%, other 2%
There are not really enough Islamic militants to force an Islamic government.
They will try.
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