1
false
Researchers Propose Earth's 'Anthropocene' Age of Humans Began With Fallout and Plastics
A research team assessing whether and when a new geological age shaped by humans began has settled on the mid 20th century, with plastics and nuclear bombs as markers.Business Day
In the Falling Euro’s Shadows, Bargain-Hunting for Luxury
It turns out that retail pricing, especially for luxury brands with fat profit margins, is far more complicated than just looking up exchange rates.
World
Rival Palestinian Checkpoints in Gaza Show Cracks in Reconciliation Pact
When Hamas temporarily set up an outpost at a border checkpoint maintained by the Palestinian Authority, it illustrated the unraveling of the reconciliation agreement the two sides reached last year.Sports
Far Ahead of Curve, a 6-Year-Old Thrills a Nation
Rashid al-Dhaheri, who became enamored of motorsports after attending a Formula One race with his father, has been winning youth go-kart races and building a following in the United Arab Emirates.
U.S.
C.I.A. Officers Are Cleared in Senate Computer Search
The findings overturned the conclusions of the C.I.A. inspector general, who determined last year that five officers acted improperly when they searched files used by the Senate Intelligence Committee during its investigation of C.I.A. interrogations.Business Day
Oil Output Seen Rising, Despite Fall in Its Price
The Energy Information Administration forecast oil production in the United States of 9.3 million barrels a day in 2015, up from last year, and rising to 9.5 million in 2016.N.Y. / Region
Don’t Chew on My Blue Suede Shoes: A Contest of Elvis Presley and Dogs
The Cauz for Pawz thrift store in Manhattan hosted an Elvis-dog look-alike contest to celebrate what would have been the King’s 80th birthday.Business Day
Devil May Be in the Details on European Central Bank Bond-Buying
A widely expected stimulus program will be a test of whether the institution and its president can walk a fine political line and show their resolve.Deflation As Betrayal
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
writes that Europe’s slide toward deflation amounts to a “betrayal” of
Southern Europe. This sounds over the top, but it is the simple truth.
So let me elaborate with a picture I find illuminating.
The attached chart
shows core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) in
Germany, Spain, and the euro area as a whole. As you can see, there have
been two distinct eras for the euro system.
In the first era, up
to the crisis, capital was flooding into southern Europe. In retrospect,
this was a bad thing, but few in positions of authority were
complaining at the time — oh, and in Spain it was private borrowing, not
public. The result was a boom in the south, and also somewhat elevated
inflation. Again, however, this was regarded as perfectly normal and
good at the time. After all, you don’t expect everyone in a currency
union to have the same inflation rate. Overall inflation was fine — and
rising prices in southern Europe helped Germany become super-competitive
and emerge from the economic doldrums it was in at the end of the 90s,
without needing actual deflation.
Then the capital flows
stopped, and it become necessary for southern Europe to reverse the
rise in relative costs and prices that had taken place during the era of
inflows. Both basic macroeconomics and the agreed-on rules of the game
for the euro said that this adjustment should be symmetric with what
went before — that overall euro area inflation should remain at target
(or higher, says the economics, but leave that aside), with Germany
running significantly higher inflation so that low inflation in the
south could deliver the needed “internal devaluation”.
In fact, however,
there was no rise in German inflation, and at this point it amounts to a
fall. Overall euro inflation, even using the core, is far below target.
And southern Europe has been forced into deflation, which is very
costly and also worsens the debt burden.
And then you have the
Germans saying that they dealt with their problems, so why can’t
southern Europe do the same? Why, because southern Europe played by the
rules, but in its time of need the rules were changed, hugely to its
disadvantage.
You might ask, what
would have been needed to avoid this situation? The ECB should have been
aggressively expanding as soon as it became clear that inflation was
sliding. There should have been a determined effort to offset fiscal
austerity in southern Europe with expansion in the north. Instead,
inflation and deficit obsession were allowed to rule for years; and now
the situation is very close to irretrievable.
The market clearly thinks the cause is almost lost. German 5-year bonds are yielding zero; index bonds of the same maturity
are yielding -0.2. That’s an implied forecast of just 0.2 percent
inflation over the next five years, which means intense deflationary
pressure in the south. Really not good."
U.S.
Obama Facing Rising Pressure on Keystone Oil Pipeline
After the Nebraska Supreme Court cleared the way for construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, the House voted, 266 to 153, approving of the project.World
Video: The Jihadist in Our Family
Why would Mohd Lotfi Ariffin leave his wife and children behind in Malaysia in search of martyrdom in Syria?N.Y. / Region
Murder Plot Suspect Says Boss Threatened His Life
A former United States Army sniper is accused of being a contract killer hired to murder a D.E.A. agent and a government informant.Technology
CES: A Fitness Watch, Smart Light Bulbs and a Self-Watering Flower Pot
A few devices that stuck out at the International CES trade show this year.Food
Stick With Me Sweets Opens in NoLIta
Bonbons from a former Per Se chocolatier, the story of herring, a class on making ice cream and more.U.S.
David H. Marlowe Dies at 83; Helped Army Nurture Bands of Brothers
His studies among soldiers drove home the importance of group cohesion in combat and led to changes in how the military disciplines, organizes and cares for its troops.Business Day
Tesla Chief Asks Makers to Support Electric Cars
Elon Musk said high fuel prices could no longer be expected to drive consumers toward alternative vehicles.N.Y. / Region
Brooklyn Waterfront Is Fertile Ground for City’s First Large-Scale Wind Turbine
Four years in the making, the new wind turbine in Sunset Park is expected to provide 4 percent of the power consumed by a city-owned recycling plant.World
No comments:
Post a Comment