Saturday, December 24, 2022

@22:51, 12/12/22

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1

Ian Welsh13 hours ago
Long Covid Has Now Disabled Close to 2% Of The US Workforce
[image: Long Covid Has Now Disabled Close to 2% Of The US Workforce] An estimate, but… 2 million to 4 million full-time workers are out of the labor force due to long Covid. (To be counted in the labor force, an individual must have a job or be actively looking for work.) The midpoint of her estimate — 3 million workers — accounts for 1.8% of the entire U.S. civilian labor force. The figure may “sound unbelievably high” but is consistent with the impact in other major economies like the United Kingdom, Bach wrote in an August report. The figures are also likely conservative, since... read more
 
I need some proof.
I don't see any.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_COVID
A single definition is a place to start.
 
2
Ian Welsh2 days ago
2022 Fundraiser
[image: 2022 Fundraiser] It’s been a tough year for the world and a tough year at Chez Ian (cancer, housing issues, blah.) Personally, I’m just beginning to recover from cancer treatment, though some of it will be ongoing, and sucking, for another six to twelve months. China, deciding to the right thing (Zero Covid) stupid, is now releasing some restrictions and that’s going to go badly. Russia invaded Ukraine, ground forward and will likely wind up with less than it’d like and more than the West wanted. Europe has been the big loser in the Ukraine war, which many of us predicted, ... read more
 
Ian Welsh is the center of his world.
 
3
Ian Welsh3 days ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *“The People Cheering For Humanity’s End”* [The Atlantic, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 12-8-2022] “From Silicon Valley boardrooms to rural communes to academic philosophy departments, a seemingly inconceivable idea is being seriously discussed: that the end of humanity’s reign on Earth is imminent, and that we should welcome it. The revolt against humanity is still new enough to appear outlandish, but it has already spread beyond the fringes ... read more
 
Capitalism is ugly to those who are not capitalists.
 
4
Ian Welsh4 days ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to this week’s posts. read more
 
Merry Christmass
 
Sooner is better.   As soon as you can is best.
 
5
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Understanding Absolute Vs. Comparative Advantage
[image: Understanding Absolute Vs. Comparative Advantage] There are two types of advantages. A comparative advantage is when you have or can produce more of something than someone else. (Person, country, whatever.) An absolute advantage is when you have or can do or produce something others can’t. This can be threshold matter: in World War II the Allies had more than enough oil and the Axis didn’t have enough to run their war machine. While in numbers terms it looked like a comparative advantage, it was actually an absolute advantage: it strangled Axis production and their ability... read more
 
It is ultimately a matter of law.
 
6
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Podcast Interview On US Politics and the Midterms
[image: Podcast Interview On US Politics and the Midterms] I sat down with Chris Oestereich for a fairly long interview. He’s split it into three parts and the first is primarily about American politics. You can listen here. *DONATE OR SUBSCRIBE* read more
 
Not in public.  
.The Republican party is insane.

7
Ian Welsh1 week ago
The Decline Of the European Gardner
[image: The Decline Of the European Gardner] A while back EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said “Europe is a garden.” He was fairly widely attacked, but I agree. Some parts are much less of a garden, but Europe is a garden. However, Europe’s status as a garden is based on factors which are no longer true: 1) Vast military superiority. 2) Vast productive superiority 3) Vast technological superiority at producing and fighting. This needs some unpacking. Prosperity is just how much goods and services you have. If a society has relatively low inequality, and enough goods and se... read more
 
It is just frosty weather in the European Garden.
To continue the metaphore the weeding season will come again.
 
8
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 4, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 4, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 4, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Professional Management Class war on workers* *Railroading workers* [Popular Information, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 11-29-2022] “The dispute boils down to one issue: paid sick leave. … Railroad companies have adamantly refused to include any short-term paid leave. That means rail workers must report to work, even when they are sick, or forfeit their pay. “It’s an insane and cruel system, and these guys are fed up with it,” Peter Kennedy, c... read more
 
Old news.
The strike was arbitrated.  
The Tories will not kill the National Health System.
It will not kill the Tories to pay the nurses.

9
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. read more
 
 Sooner is better.   As soon as you can is best.

10
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Is It Dangerous To Hit Targets Inside Russia?
[image: Is It Dangerous To Hit Targets Inside Russia?] Now, to be clear, a few targets have been hit in fairly minor ways, but let’s assume a real strike with Western provided weapons. The opinion below has been stated often. Latvian FM: NATO ‘Should Not Fear’ Moscow’s Response to Strikes Inside Russia by Kyle Anzalone@KyleAnzalone_ https://t.co/IHRPgrH6lh pic.twitter.com/0llLUUkggI — Antiwar.com (@Antiwarcom) December 1, 2022 So, thought exercise. During the Iraq war another country gives Iraq missiles capable of striking within the continental USA and Iraq launches them and doe... read more
 
The U.S. response was to stomp Iraq flat and to follow up with a futile religeous war in Afghanistan. 

11
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
US House Passes Bill Forcing Railway Workers To Not Strike
[image: US House Passes Bill Forcing Railway Workers To Not Strike] The bill makes them take a deal they had rejected before. Of particular note is that the bill gives them one sick day a year. Democrats voting against were: Chu-CA, DeSaulnier-CA, Golden-ME, Norcross-NJ, Peltola-AK, Pocan-WI, Tlaib-MI & Torres-CA. I note that AOC did not vote against. I was initially hopeful, but I think it’s now undeniable that she’s performatively left-wing only, she cannot be counted on. The House then passed a separate bill which would give the railway workers 7 sick days and defenders of Dem... read more
 
There will be no new civil war yet.
 
12
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
China’s Zero-Covid Is The Right Policy Done Stupid (or How China/The West Could Kill Covid)
[image: China’s Zero-Covid Is The Right Policy Done Stupid (or How China/The West Could Kill Covid)] Imagine policy on two axis. Good vs. Bad policy, and done well vs. done badly. Invading Iraq was bad policy, and it was done badly beyond the initial conquest. Quantitative easing was bad policy (unless you were very rich, it was good for the rich and bad for everyone else) and it was done well: it saved the rich then made them much richer. (They aren’t concerned about long term downsides.) Social Security or Medicare or Canada’s Universal Health care system (when first created a... read more
 
Quaranteen did not work against the black death.
It will not work against Covid-19.
 
13
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
The Decline & Fall Of The Soviet Union
[image: The Decline & Fall Of The Soviet Union] Our society seems fascinated by the fall of empires and nations. You rarely see a book on the “birth” of Rome, say, it’s the collapse we care about. In this I’m a bit odd, I prefer the creation period, the early years when everything goes right, to the fall, but it’s important to see that death precedes birth. The Czars fall, the Soviets rise… The Soviets fall, and after some birth pangs, Russia rises. But when considering the fall, one should also remember the rise. We act as if the late period, which is almost inevitably full of cor... read more
 
Pragmatism is the only way that works so far.
 
14
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 27, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 27, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 27, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Strategic Political Economy* *8 billion and counting* [ABC, via The Big Picture 11-22-2022] This week, the world’s population ticks over a historic milestone. But in the next century, society will be reshaped dramatically — and soon we’ll hit a decline we’ll never reverse *The incredible shrinking future of college* [Vox, via The Big Picture 11-23-2022] The population of college-age Americans is about to crash. It will change higher educati... read more
 
Demography is real.
 
15
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.   As soon as you canis best.
 
16
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Happy Thanksgiving
[image: Happy Thanksgiving] To American friends. I hope you have a good one. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
It can always be better.   I will try again.
 
17
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Why Twitter Has Been Marvelous
[image: Why Twitter Has Been Marvelous] I try not to write about topics where a lot of other people have said what I’d say, or, indeed, written better than I would. The takeover by Musk of Twitter is one of those topics. There have been plenty of excellent articles on what it means and on how Musk could really screw up Twitter by destroying the feeling of safety which advertisers require and by misunderstanding that the users are the product, not the customers. I’ve been on Twitter since August of 2008 (@iwelsh). I visit almost every day and for many years I spent a lot of time the... read more
 
Twitter has been agressively social.  The agression must stop.
 
18
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Politics Series: Foreign Affairs
[image: Politics Series: Foreign Affairs] (Previous: Government) (Introduction and Table of Contents) Clausewitz wrote “war is a continuation of policy by other means.” Foreign affairs are government by other means. They are attempts to control what people do in other countries: what their policies are, how they govern themselves, and often enough, who is in charge. In foreign affairs, the government trying to control the actions of another government doesn’t have full direct control, though it can have some control. Take “free trade” and International Monetary Fund (IMF) “struc... read more
 
"Form a commitee and see what can be done by talking"
 
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Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 20, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 20, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 20, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Here’s WHY your inbox is a dumpster fire of fundraising spam, and what we can do about it.* Will Easton, November 18, 2022 [DailyKos] Over the past couple cycles here, certain Democratic consulting firms, candidates & organizations have simply decided that it’s in their best interests to sell, rent, swap & trade your email address around the ecosystem, without bothering to ask you first. So if you’ve contributed to one campaign … you’re going t... read more
 
Things change.
 
20
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.
 
Merry Christmass.
 
 
 
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