Monday, December 5, 2022

@11:30, 11/13/22

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an Welsh1 day ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.
 
2

Ian Welsh3 days ago
Losing the Power Of The Printing Press
[image: Losing the Power Of The Printing Press] If you look up whether governments can “just print more money” what you’ll find at most sites is an answer “no, because it only increases the amount of money, not the amount of economic activity.” This is not true and it’s not true in a number of ways. If there is under-utilization of capacity, you can print. Here’s US capacity: The US has been running substantially under capacity for a long time. But, you say, there was a lot of money printing (private and public, most money is created by banks, brokerages and so on) and capacity ut... read more
 
"Money is a social creation. So is how we run the economy. It can be made to work for everyone, for a few people, or to be a machine of impoverishment. The choice, on aggregate, is ours."
 
3
Ian Welsh6 days ago
The Great Favor The West Is Doing China By Banning Equipment Needed To Make Chips
[image: The Great Favor The West Is Doing China By Banning Equipment Needed To Make Chips] We really are run by fools. “If you shut out [China] with export control, [they’ll] strive toward tech sovereignty… [Then] they’ll be able to do it all by themselves and the market [for European suppliers] will be gone.” The great problem in the neo-liberal era is that the usual road for tech and industrial catch-up, protectionist tariffs is mostly closed. (This is who Britain and the US and almost everyone created their industrial base and caught up in tech.) Despite what a lot of people s... read more
 
Forcing China to learn is unproductive.

4
Ian Welsh6 days ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 6, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 6, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 6, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *The Pandemic* *The Worst Pediatric-Care Crisis in Decades * [The Atlantic, via Naked Capitalism 11-2-2022] [Twitter, via Naked Capitalism 11-2-2022] Could SARS2—which attacks all your blood vessels—account for this apparent 535% rise in heart attacks one year later in the greater Mumbai area? Nah…probably “Overambition” [image: 🤡] pic.twitter.com/vDajfIAECs — Radical Centrist, wrathful tantric deity [image: 🇺🇦] (@RadCentrism) October 17, 2022 ... read more
 
The week was without shocks.from this view.
Congress remains frozen.
 
5
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.   As soon as you can is best.
 
6
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Growth Through Real Estate Bubbles v.s. Sustainable High Income Growth (China)
[image: Growth Through Real Estate Bubbles v.s. Sustainable High Income Growth (China)] All right. Let’s talk some basic development stuff, primarily in the neoliberal era. Because industrial policy was disallowed with a few marginal exceptions due to the “rule based order” enforced by a variety of trade agreements and organizations, the traditional route of protecting domestic industries and growing behind tariffs became very difficult to do. Various countries used different dodges. Russia, to get out of the Yeltsin era collapse, went whole hog into resources: advanced nations ha... read more
 
The path to "the right thing" is important to me. 
The west should not worry.

https://zeihan.com/a-peek-behind-the-curtain-life-expectancy/
https://zeihan.com/the-beginning-of-the-fall-of-crimea/ 
https://zeihan.com/iranian-drones-and-russian-desperation/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYZGlmX6HXY
Peter Zeihan is interesting but error ridden.

7
Ian Welsh1 week ago
None Of This Had To Be: The Two Paths
[image: None Of This Had To Be: The Two Paths] There are broadly two views of the situation we human are in. The first is that what is happening is just a result of human nature. It is who we are. We are stupid, short sighted, and profoundly cruel to each other and to other living beings. Our history is of war and rape and torture. In Tudor times they would cut open a person’s belly, and burn their intestines while they were still alive. Crowds would gather, and turn the occasion into a celebration. Environmental destruction is old, too. Mesopotamia was not a desert once, but we m... read more
 
Neither of these paths is stable.
Some middle path will be best.
Local bargaining must continue as circumstances change.
The economic system must be locally pragmatic.
 
8
Ian Welsh1 week ago
It’s The First World That Is Isolated
[image: It’s The First World That Is Isolated] I’ve said this for a while, but now we have empirical proof that most of the world likes Russia and China more than the US (h/t Johnstone): “Among the 1.2bn people who inhabit the world’s liberal democracies, three-quarters (75%) now hold a negative view of China, and 87% a negative view of Russia,” the report reads. “However, for the 6.3bn people who live in the rest of the world, the picture is reversed. In these societies, 70% feel positively towards China, and 66% positively towards Russia.” However, across a vast span of countries... read more
 
Whole nations of the unhoused.
The former colonial powers are resented.   
 
9
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 30, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 30, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 30, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Mike Davis, California’s ‘prophet of doom’, on activism in a dying world: ‘Despair is useless’ * [Guardian, via Naked Capitalism 10-27-2022] *You’ve been organizing for social change your whole life. How do you deal with a future that feels so bleak?* For someone my age who was in the civil rights movement, and in other struggles of the 1960s, I’ve seen miracles happen. I’ve seen ordinary people do the most heroic things. When you’ve had the privi... read more
 
Russia is a police state again.
https://zeihan.com/energy-at-the-end-of-the-world/
https://zeihan.com/ukrainian-consequences-nord-stream%ef%bf%bc/
https://zeihan.com/ukrainian-consequences-energy-in-europe%ef%bf%bc/ 

10
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.     As soon as you can is best.
 
11
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Climate Gas Increases Accelerating
[image: Climate Gas Increases Accelerating] Who would have expected? All three are accelerating, with Methane the worst. Now my first reaction was that this was a reaction to Covid restrictions ending, but if you look at the chart it’s clear that isn’t the case, as the amount of increase is more than Pre-Covid. Related: “Just 26 of 193 countries that agreed last year to step up their climate actions have followed through with more ambitious plans.” https://t.co/a8LXccRyoI — David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells) October 26, 2022 This is why I laughed when people heralded Kyoto or P... read more
 
Yes. 
The use of fossil carbon must end.

12
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
The Inflationary Consequences of Friendzoning and Decoupling
[image: The Inflationary Consequences of Friendzoning and Decoupling] During the rise of China and the “One World/Free Trade” period, one good thing which can be said for offshoring is that it helped reduce inflation. It, indeed, drove much of the inflation reduction, with most of the rest of the inflation reduction being concerted efforts to keep wages low, with a strong assist from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to use methods like hedonics to pretend that inflation was lower than it actually was. The new mantra is “friendzoning” — not so much bringing industry back to the US but... read more
 
China is a "paper tiger".
 
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Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 23, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 23, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 23, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *What is happening in the West Bank right now: a full breakdown * [Mondoweiss, via Naked Capitalism 10-19-2022] The past few weeks have witnessed a noticeable intensification of Israel’s crackdown on Palestinians in the West Bank, targeting both ordinary civilians in their homes and villages, and armed resistance fighters and groups. Simultaneously, armed settlers have been terrorizing Palestinian communities across the West Bank, often in the pres... read more
 
Neither side will surrender. 
The fighting will continue.
 
14
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.   As soon as you can is best.
 
15
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
The Adderall Shortage Is Just the First Major Shortage
[image: The Adderall Shortage Is Just the First Major Shortage] People who have read me for a while know that for years I’ve been warning of prescription drug shortages or even stoppages. Well, now we have one that’s large enough to have made headlines: A national shortage of Adderall has left patients who rely on the pills for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder scrambling to find alternative treatments and uncertain whether they will be able to refill their medication. The Food and Drug Administration announced the shortage last week, saying that one of the largest producer... read more
 
The medical and medicinal establishment is capitalist.
 
16
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Avoiding Added Emotional Suffering (Buddha’s Second Arrow)
[image: Avoiding Added Emotional Suffering (Buddha’s Second Arrow)] When I say in this post to imagine something stop and imagine it, or you won’t get the necessary effect. First, imagine falling. You catch yourself on your hands, you’re not seriously injured, but your hands are abraded and you’ve wrenched a muscle in you back. Next. Imagine that you fell unavoidably: there was a small bit of ice, but you were walking carefully and there’s nothing you could have done. Third: imagine that you were careless. There was an obvious piece of ice, you weren’t paying attention, and you kn... read more
 
Good advice.
 
17
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Rooming House Policy Positions of Candidates For Toronto Riding University-Rosedale
[image: Rooming House Policy Positions of Candidates For Toronto Riding University-Rosedale] I live in University-Rosedale, in something which might be considered a rooming house, though my unit is self-contained (one room plus a small bathroom with a shower, the main room has a cooking area.) I’ve lived in rooming houses on and off throughout my life. I’m putting the candidates policies up mostly so it can be found by people in my riding, which means it’ll be of little interest to most of my readers. I promised no editorializing when soliciting these positions and I’m going to le... read more
 
Cheap squats are part of the housing mix.
 
18
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
How To Make Peace In Ukraine
[image: How To Make Peace In Ukraine] The Ukraine war is steadily escalating. Strikes on infrastructure, the Russian mobilization of reserves (Ukraine has already mobilized multiple times) and increase NATO aid as well as economies stuttering around the world. Tac-nukes have been put on the table, though not used. Peace is better than war, but there seems to be no route towards peace. The Ukrainians have passed a law stating they won’t negotiate while Putin is leader, both sides think they can win on the battlefield and so more refugees flood out of Ukraine, more people die, are ra... read more
 
Russia will be defeated economically again. 
 
19
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 16, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 16, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 16, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Strategic Political Economy* *“How We Create–Then Blame–A Viral Underclass” (interview)* Steven Thrasher [MedScape, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 10-14-2022] [*TW: Viruses, diseases, public health — are all reality based and have no respect for the ideologies of neoliberals, conservatives, or libertarians.*] …viruses give us this map of understanding that there is no distinct me and distinct you. There’s always this organic material that potential... read more
 
China and Russia will have a hard winter.
 
20
Ian Welsh4 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts (no Covid or Ukraine.) Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.
 
 
 
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