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1
Ian Welsh13 hours ago
Long Covid Has Now Disabled Close to 2% Of The US Workforce[image: Long Covid Has Now Disabled Close to 2% Of The US Workforce]
An estimate, but…
2 million to 4 million full-time workers are out of the labor force due to
long Covid. (To be counted in the labor force, an individual must have a
job or be actively looking for work.)
The midpoint of her estimate — 3 million workers — accounts for 1.8% of the
entire U.S. civilian labor force. The figure may “sound unbelievably high”
but is consistent with the impact in other major economies like the United
Kingdom, Bach wrote in an August report. The figures are also likely
conservative, since... read more
I need some proof.
I don't see any.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_COVID
A single definition is a place to start.
2
Ian Welsh2 days ago
2022 Fundraiser[image: 2022 Fundraiser]
It’s been a tough year for the world and a tough year at Chez Ian (cancer,
housing issues, blah.) Personally, I’m just beginning to recover from
cancer treatment, though some of it will be ongoing, and sucking, for
another six to twelve months. China, deciding to the right thing (Zero
Covid) stupid, is now releasing some restrictions and that’s going to go
badly. Russia invaded Ukraine, ground forward and will likely wind up with
less than it’d like and more than the West wanted.
Europe has been the big loser in the Ukraine war, which many of us predicted, ... read more
Ian Welsh is the center of his world.
3
Ian Welsh3 days ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022]
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 11, 2022
by Tony Wikrent
*“The People Cheering For Humanity’s End”*
[The Atlantic, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 12-8-2022]
“From Silicon Valley boardrooms to rural communes to academic philosophy
departments, a seemingly inconceivable idea is being seriously discussed:
that the end of humanity’s reign on Earth is imminent, and that we should
welcome it. The revolt against humanity is still new enough to appear
outlandish, but it has already spread beyond the fringes ... read more
Capitalism is ugly to those who are not capitalists.
4
Ian Welsh4 days ago
Open Thread[image: Open Thread]
Use to discuss topics unrelated to this week’s posts.
read more
Merry Christmass
Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
5
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Understanding Absolute Vs. Comparative Advantage[image: Understanding Absolute Vs. Comparative Advantage]
There are two types of advantages.
A comparative advantage is when you have or can produce more of something
than someone else. (Person, country, whatever.)
An absolute advantage is when you have or can do or produce something
others can’t. This can be threshold matter: in World War II the Allies had
more than enough oil and the Axis didn’t have enough to run their war
machine. While in numbers terms it looked like a comparative advantage, it
was actually an absolute advantage: it strangled Axis production and their
ability... read more
It is ultimately a matter of law.
6
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Podcast Interview On US Politics and the Midterms[image: Podcast Interview On US Politics and the Midterms]
I sat down with Chris Oestereich for a fairly long interview. He’s split it
into three parts and the first is primarily about American politics.
You can listen here.
*DONATE OR SUBSCRIBE*
read more
Not in public.
.The Republican party is insane.7
Ian Welsh1 week ago
The Decline Of the European Gardner[image: The Decline Of the European Gardner]
A while back EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said “Europe is a
garden.” He was fairly widely attacked, but I agree. Some parts are much
less of a garden, but Europe is a garden.
However, Europe’s status as a garden is based on factors which are no
longer true:
1) Vast military superiority.
2) Vast productive superiority
3) Vast technological superiority at producing and fighting.
This needs some unpacking. Prosperity is just how much goods and services
you have. If a society has relatively low inequality, and enough goods and
se... read more
It is just frosty weather in the European Garden.
To continue the metaphore the weeding season will come again.
8
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 4, 2022[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 4, 2022]
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – December 4, 2022
by Tony Wikrent
*Professional Management Class war on workers*
*Railroading workers*
[Popular Information, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 11-29-2022]
“The dispute boils down to one issue: paid sick leave. … Railroad companies
have adamantly refused to include any short-term paid leave. That means
rail workers must report to work, even when they are sick, or forfeit their
pay. “It’s an insane and cruel system, and these guys are fed up with it,”
Peter Kennedy, c... read more
Old news.
The strike was arbitrated.
The Tories will not kill the National Health System.
It will not kill the Tories to pay the nurses.
9
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Open Thread[image: Open Thread]
Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.
read more
Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
10
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Is It Dangerous To Hit Targets Inside Russia?[image: Is It Dangerous To Hit Targets Inside Russia?]
Now, to be clear, a few targets have been hit in fairly minor ways, but
let’s assume a real strike with Western provided weapons.
The opinion below has been stated often.
Latvian FM: NATO ‘Should Not Fear’ Moscow’s Response to Strikes Inside
Russia
by Kyle Anzalone@KyleAnzalone_ https://t.co/IHRPgrH6lh
pic.twitter.com/0llLUUkggI
— Antiwar.com (@Antiwarcom) December 1, 2022
So, thought exercise. During the Iraq war another country gives Iraq
missiles capable of striking within the continental USA and Iraq launches
them and doe... read more
The U.S. response was to stomp Iraq flat and to follow up with a futile religeous war in Afghanistan.
11
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
US House Passes Bill Forcing Railway Workers To Not Strike[image: US House Passes Bill Forcing Railway Workers To Not Strike]
The bill makes them take a deal they had rejected before. Of particular
note is that the bill gives them one sick day a year. Democrats voting
against were:
Chu-CA, DeSaulnier-CA, Golden-ME, Norcross-NJ, Peltola-AK, Pocan-WI,
Tlaib-MI & Torres-CA.
I note that AOC did not vote against. I was initially hopeful, but I think
it’s now undeniable that she’s performatively left-wing only, she cannot be
counted on.
The House then passed a separate bill which would give the railway workers
7 sick days and defenders of Dem... read more
There will be no new civil war yet.
12
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
China’s Zero-Covid Is The Right Policy Done Stupid (or How China/The West Could Kill Covid)[image: China’s Zero-Covid Is The Right Policy Done Stupid (or How
China/The West Could Kill Covid)]
Imagine policy on two axis. Good vs. Bad policy, and done well vs. done
badly.
Invading Iraq was bad policy, and it was done badly beyond the initial
conquest.
Quantitative easing was bad policy (unless you were very rich, it was good
for the rich and bad for everyone else) and it was done well: it saved the
rich then made them much richer. (They aren’t concerned about long term
downsides.)
Social Security or Medicare or Canada’s Universal Health care system (when
first created a... read more
Quaranteen did not work against the black death.
It will not work against Covid-19.
13
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
The Decline & Fall Of The Soviet Union[image: The Decline & Fall Of The Soviet Union]
Our society seems fascinated by the fall of empires and nations. You rarely
see a book on the “birth” of Rome, say, it’s the collapse we care about. In
this I’m a bit odd, I prefer the creation period, the early years when
everything goes right, to the fall, but it’s important to see that death
precedes birth. The Czars fall, the Soviets rise… The Soviets fall, and
after some birth pangs, Russia rises.
But when considering the fall, one should also remember the rise. We act as
if the late period, which is almost inevitably full of cor... read more
Pragmatism is the only way that works so far.
14
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 27, 2022[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 27, 2022]
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 27, 2022
by Tony Wikrent
*Strategic Political Economy*
*8 billion and counting*
[ABC, via The Big Picture 11-22-2022]
This week, the world’s population ticks over a historic milestone. But in
the next century, society will be reshaped dramatically — and soon we’ll
hit a decline we’ll never reverse
*The incredible shrinking future of college*
[Vox, via The Big Picture 11-23-2022]
The population of college-age Americans is about to crash. It will change
higher educati... read more
Demography is real.
15
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Open Thread[image: Open Thread]
Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.
Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn
read more
Sooner is better. As soon as you canis best.
16
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Happy Thanksgiving[image: Happy Thanksgiving]
To American friends. I hope you have a good one.
Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn
read more
It can always be better. I will try again.
17
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Why Twitter Has Been Marvelous[image: Why Twitter Has Been Marvelous]
I try not to write about topics where a lot of other people have said what
I’d say, or, indeed, written better than I would. The takeover by Musk of
Twitter is one of those topics. There have been plenty of excellent
articles on what it means and on how Musk could really screw up Twitter by
destroying the feeling of safety which advertisers require and by
misunderstanding that the users are the product, not the customers.
I’ve been on Twitter since August of 2008 (@iwelsh). I visit almost every
day and for many years I spent a lot of time the... read more
Twitter has been agressively social. The agression must stop.
18
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Politics Series: Foreign Affairs[image: Politics Series: Foreign Affairs]
(Previous: Government)
(Introduction and Table of Contents)
Clausewitz wrote “war is a continuation of policy by other means.”
Foreign affairs are government by other means.
They are attempts to control what people do in other countries: what their
policies are, how they govern themselves, and often enough, who is in
charge.
In foreign affairs, the government trying to control the actions of another
government doesn’t have full direct control, though it can have some
control.
Take “free trade” and International Monetary Fund (IMF) “struc... read more
"Form a commitee and see what can be done by talking"
19
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 20, 2022[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 20, 2022]
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – November 20, 2022
by Tony Wikrent
*Here’s WHY your inbox is a dumpster fire of fundraising spam, and what we
can do about it.*
Will Easton, November 18, 2022 [DailyKos]
Over the past couple cycles here, certain Democratic consulting firms,
candidates & organizations have simply decided that it’s in their best
interests to sell, rent, swap & trade your email address around the
ecosystem, without bothering to ask you first. So if you’ve contributed to
one campaign … you’re going t... read more
Things change.
20
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Open Thread[image: Open Thread]
Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts.
Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn
read more
Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
Merry Christmass.
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