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Opinion
Inconvenient Uncertainties
The climate is getting hotter. We just can’t predict exactly how hot.
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World
Syrian Civilians Bore Brunt of Rebels’ Fury, Report Says
Human Rights Watch said it had documented for the first time that rebel groups in Syria “systematically” targeted civilians in a massacre in August that left 190 dead.
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World
Mother to Visit American Held in North Korea
The mother of Kenneth Bae, who was sentenced to 15 years of hard labor, has been granted permission to visit him and arrived in Pyongyang on Thursday.Consider that the right wing is similarly guilty.
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World
Fifth Suspect Is Indicted in 2005 Killing of Ex-Lebanese Premier
An international tribunal handed down another indictment against a member of Hezbollah in the bombing that killed Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister.
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World
The Human Rights Watch Report
Human Rights Watch said it had documented for the first time that Syrian rebel groups targeted civilians in Latakia for executions and hostage-taking. More than 200 people were still being held, the agency said.
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Opinion
Politics and Art
A writer says that Michigan’s governor won’t alienate wealthy patrons of the arts by selling a museum’s works.
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Sports
James Street Dies at 65; Led Texas to Title
Street became an instant legend for fueling a 15-14 victory over Arkansas in 1969, which gave Texas the national crown, as declared by President Richard M. Nixon.
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Business Day
Megyn Kelly Draws a Large, Older Audience on Fox News Show
Ms. Kelly’s new show at 9 p.m. had an audience of more than two million, but trailed MSNBC among the younger viewers advertisers pay to reach.
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Health
Charting Success in Battling AIDS
About a dozen countries hit hard by AIDS have reached a “tipping point” that means they are winning their battles against the disease, according to a new analysis.
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Sports
Serenity, and a Few Sly Smiles, for the U.S.
The squad appeared to be in disarray in March but has since won several qualifiers and clinched a berth in Brazil.
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Style
After the I.V.F., the Wait
When you’re trying to conceive, the “two-week wait” is a thing: the “seemingly interminable time period after you ovulate and before you can take a pregnancy test.” After I.V.F., it’s even harder.
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U.S.
Arizona: Ballots Will Have Two-Track System
The state is planning a dual-track voting system allowing people who register without proof of citizenship to vote for federal offices but not for state or local ones, officials said.
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World
Unrest Over Telangana Brings Andhra Pradesh to Standstill
The turmoil over the proposed division of the state has escalated with the state power workers walking off their jobs, leaving the regions of Seemandhra and parts of Telangana in the dark.
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U.S.
Iowa: State Senator in Inquiry Resigns
State Senator Kent Sorenson resigned Wednesday after an investigator concluded that he most likely broke ethics rules by receiving income from a political action committee.
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Opinion
Private School Admission
Alexis S. Wright of the Bank Street College of Education writes that a standardized test like the E.R.B. unfairly defines a 4- or a 5-year-old.
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Business Day
Jobs Report Becomes a Casualty of Shutdown
The data vacuum left by the shuttered Labor Department has inspired other outfits that track the labor market to fight for analysts’ attention.The Debt Ceiling and the Housing Bust
Suppose that we hit the debt ceiling, and
that the Treasury manages to engage in “prioritization” — paying
interest on bonds, so that all the burden falls on other kinds of
spending. How should we think about the economic impact?
Well, here’s one thought. Right now, the cash-flow deficit is a bit more than 4 percent of GDP:
Federal deficit as percent of GDP
This deficit would have to be closed immediately, cold turkey, in the
event of a debt-ceiling breach. Probably the default — because it would
be a default, even if interest payments are being made — would take the
form of a “delayed payment regime“, with the government falling ever further behind on its bills.
So, when did we last see a spending shock this big? As it happens, we’re looking at something just about the size of the post-bubble housing bust, which was also about 4 percent of GDP:
Residential investment as percent of GDP
You can argue that these spending cuts wouldn’t have as much impact
as the housing bust, because payment would be delayed, not cancelled,
and at least some players would continue to expect eventual payment. On
the other hand, as I pointed out in my last post,
this time around we would have disconnected the automatic stabilizers —
as GDP fell, revenues would fall, forcing another round of spending
cuts, and so on.
Again, my point is that we could well be looking at a Great Recession-sized event even if we avoid a purely financial crisis."
Well, here’s one thought. Right now, the cash-flow deficit is a bit more than 4 percent of GDP:
Federal deficit as percent of GDPSo, when did we last see a spending shock this big? As it happens, we’re looking at something just about the size of the post-bubble housing bust, which was also about 4 percent of GDP:
Residential investment as percent of GDPAgain, my point is that we could well be looking at a Great Recession-sized event even if we avoid a purely financial crisis."
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Real Estate
Making Life, and Your Cat, Sit Still
Mimi Vang Olsen paints portraits of homes and of pets.
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U.S.
No Quick Deal, but Offer by G.O.P. on Debt Shifts the Tone
President Obama and House Republicans failed to reach agreement on a short extension of the nation’s borrowing authority during a White House meeting, but both sides agreed to keep talking.
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U.S.
Business Groups See Loss of Sway Over House G.O.P.
Washington’s traditionally cautious and pragmatic business lobby could slip into open warfare with the Tea Party faction of the Republican Party amid frustration over the crisis.
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World
The Human Rights Watch Report
Human Rights Watch said it had documented for the first time that Syrian rebel groups targeted civilians in Latakia for executions and hostage-taking. More than 200 people were still being held, the agency said.
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U.S.
Bay Area Averts a Transit System Strike, for Now
Negotiators for the main commuter railroad in the San Francisco area, BART, agreed to stay at the bargaining table in hopes of reaching a deal.
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Opinion
Politics and Art
5
Sports
James Street Dies at 65; Led Texas to Title
Street became an instant legend for fueling a 15-14 victory over Arkansas in 1969, which gave Texas the national crown, as declared by President Richard M. Nixon.
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Opinion
Private School Admission
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World
Unrest Over Telangana Brings Andhra Pradesh to Standstill
The turmoil over the proposed division of the state has escalated with the state power workers walking off their jobs, leaving the regions of Seemandhra and parts of Telangana in the dark.
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Science
Energy-Saving Secret of Jellyfish
A jellyfish contracts its open bell and pushes water behind it, propelling itself forward. When the bell fills again, it gets a secondary, no-effort, thrust.
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Technology
Moving Into a New MacBook Air
How to move personal information from one MacBook to another, and tips on searching safely online.
2
Movies
An Essentially American Narrative
Nelson George discusses “12 Years a Slave” with its director, Steve McQueen; the artist Kara Walker; the actor Chiwetel Ejiofor; and the historian Eric Foner.
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Your Money
When Having a Nanny Cam Isn’t Enough
Tips on how to avoid pitfalls in the employment of household help.
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N.Y. / Region
An Extended Addams Family
“Chas Addams: Family and Friends” offers a sampling of the work of the New Yorker cartoonist Charles Addams, known for characters like Gomez and Uncle Fester.
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Opinion
Private School Admission
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World
Pakistan: Girl Shot by Taliban Wins a Rights Award
Malala Yousafzai, the schoolgirl who survived a Taliban assassination attempt last October, received a human rights award on Friday.
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Opinion
Countdown to a Hotter Climate - Tropics First
A new modeling study finds that by mid-century many places on Earth, starting in the tropics, will have a fundamentally warmer climate.
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Arts
Josh Sapan’s ‘Big Picture,’ on Group Photos as Collectibles
The chief executive of AMC Networks, Josh Sapan, is parting with some of his items, described in a new book, and lending others for display.
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Your Money
When Converting a Roth I.R.A. Back to a Traditional One Makes Sense
Because going from a tax-deferred I.R.A. to a tax-free Roth has huge implications, the government gives people a chance to change their minds.
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Business Day
Comcast Hopes to Promote TV Shows in Twitter Deal
A new feature, See It, is meant to make it easy to move from reading comments about a show to watching that show.
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