1
The bills are not getting paid in the hinterland.
2
Crosswords & Games
Two Russian ChampGo siions Capitalize on Mistakes
Peter Svidler won the Russian men’s title and Valentina Gunina the women’s championship in Moscow last week.
3
U.S.
The Government’s Coming Shortfall
If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury will have to rely on daily incoming revenues to pay its bills and will have to choose to delay certain payments or not pay for some programs altogether.What A Drag
As many people have been pointing out, the
economic costs of GOP attempts to rule by extortion didn’t begin with
the shutdown/debt crisis, and haven’t ended with the (temporary?)
resolution of that crisis. The now widely-cited Macroeconomic Advisers report
estimated the cost of crisis-driven fiscal policy at 1 percentage point
off the growth rate for three years, or roughly 3 percent now. More
than half of this estimated cost comes from the “fiscal drag” of falling
discretionary spending, with the rest coming from a (shaky) estimate of
the impacts of fiscal uncertainty on borrowing costs.
I’ve been looking a bit harder at that report, and while I am in broad agreement with its conclusion, I think it’s missing quite a lot. On balance, I’d argue that the negative effect of the crazies has been even worse than MA says.
OK, first thing: I’m not too happy with the report’s reliance on the Bloom et al uncertainty index to measure costs. As Mike Konczal pointed out a while back, that index is a strange creature, driven to an important extent by the number of times politicians talk about uncertainty. It’s really not something you want to lean on, and if you take it out, MA’s estimates of the Republican drag fall.
But we shouldn’t stop there, because there are two important aspects of the story that MA leaves out.
First, part of the fiscal cliff deal involved letting the Obama payroll tax cut — a significant, useful form of economic stimulus — expire. (Republicans only like tax cuts that go to people with high incomes.) This led to a surprisingly large tax hike in 2013, focused on workers:
Second, GOP opposition to unemployment insurance has been the biggest
factor in a very rapid decline in unemployment benefits despite
continuing weak job markets:
This hurts the unemployed a lot, but it also hurts the economy,
because the unemployed are already living on the edge, and surely must
have been forced into spending cuts as benefits expired.
The combination of the payroll take hike and the benefit cuts amounts to about $200 billion of fiscal contraction at an annual rate, or 1.25 percent of GDP, probably with a significant multiplier effect. Add this to the effects of sharp cuts in discretionary spending and the effects of economic uncertainty, however measured, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that extortion tactics may have shaved as much as 4 percent off GDP and added 2 points to the unemployment rate.
In other words, we’d be looking at a vastly healthier economy if it weren’t for the GOP takeover of the House in 2010."
I’ve been looking a bit harder at that report, and while I am in broad agreement with its conclusion, I think it’s missing quite a lot. On balance, I’d argue that the negative effect of the crazies has been even worse than MA says.
OK, first thing: I’m not too happy with the report’s reliance on the Bloom et al uncertainty index to measure costs. As Mike Konczal pointed out a while back, that index is a strange creature, driven to an important extent by the number of times politicians talk about uncertainty. It’s really not something you want to lean on, and if you take it out, MA’s estimates of the Republican drag fall.
But we shouldn’t stop there, because there are two important aspects of the story that MA leaves out.
First, part of the fiscal cliff deal involved letting the Obama payroll tax cut — a significant, useful form of economic stimulus — expire. (Republicans only like tax cuts that go to people with high incomes.) This led to a surprisingly large tax hike in 2013, focused on workers:
The combination of the payroll take hike and the benefit cuts amounts to about $200 billion of fiscal contraction at an annual rate, or 1.25 percent of GDP, probably with a significant multiplier effect. Add this to the effects of sharp cuts in discretionary spending and the effects of economic uncertainty, however measured, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that extortion tactics may have shaved as much as 4 percent off GDP and added 2 points to the unemployment rate.
In other words, we’d be looking at a vastly healthier economy if it weren’t for the GOP takeover of the House in 2010."
4
Opinion
The Myth of the Medical-Device Tax
What’s actually raising health care costs is a predatory industry.
5
Multimedia/Photos
Video: Yellen on Long-Term Unemployment
Janet L. Yellen addresses long-term unemployment at the 2013 National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference.She very precisely states that stimulus attempts will continue for the foreseeable future.
6
World
Mother of American Imprisoned in North Korea Leaves Without Him
The mother of Kenneth Bae, who has been incarcerated for nearly a year, expressed thanks to the North Korean government for letting her see her son.The North Koreans gave Kenneth Bae every chance to be not guilty.
He ignored their advice and is paying their price.
7
U.S.
California: A Rare Fish Surfaces
Staff members at the Catalina Island Marine Institute are calling the carcass of an 18-foot oarfish the discovery of a lifetime.
8
9
Sports
Canada Defeats U.S. Women in Hockey
Hayley Wickenheiser set up two goals and goalie Shannon Szabados held on after a late brawl to help Canada beat the United States in the opening game of the pre-Olympic tour.
10
Technology
Electrical Grid Is Called Vulnerable to Power Shutdown
The communications protocol used at many electric and water utilities may have flaws that some worry are not being fixed.
11
Technology
Be as Creative as a Kindergartner
Tom and David Kelley of the design firm IDEO talk about their new book, “Creative Confidence,” which offers a range of strategies for winning back the kind of creativity evident on a kindergarten playground, using “design thinking” methodologies their firm popularized.
12
Opinion
Making War on the Draft
Across the Midwest, many Americans violently resisted conscription into the Union Army.
13
World
In Syria, Motorists Press on, Yielding for War
Driving in Syria reveals the sometimes surreal experience of Syrians’ trying to move themselves and their goods around a country that has become a patchwork of rebellion and control.
14
Business Day
Canada and Europe Reach Tentative Trade Agreement
The deal, which still needs ratification by both sides, could increase bilateral trade by about 23 percent, or $35 billion, by lifting quotas and fine-tuning regulations.
15
Sports
A Washington Football Fan Breaks With Tradition
Nostalgia has a limit, and asking children to knowingly embrace an ethnic slur crosses that line.
16
Sports
First Task for Panel in New Playoff System: Easing Suspicions of Bias
Officials have acknowledged it would be hard for the 13-member college football selection committee to be perceived as neutral enough to satisfy fans’ scrutiny.
17
Arts
In Rwanda, Studio Space as Catalyst
Arts centers are encouraging new talent in a country still wrestling with its violent past.
18
Sports
First Openly Gay Fighter Loses Bout
Orlando Cruz, the first openly gay fighter in professional boxing, failed in his bid to gain the World Boxing Organization featherweight title.
19
Sports
30 Seconds With Lou Holtz
The ESPN college football analyst and Hall of Fame coach said in an interview that he favored a playoff system and opposed paying student athletes.
20
Opinion
Hope for a Malaria Vaccine
An ambitious clinical trial shows promise in protecting children against the disease.
1
World
Between Big Cities, a Road Passes the Russia Left Behind
Along the highway between Moscow and St. Petersburg — a 12-hour trip by car — one sees great neglected stretches of land that seem drawn backward in time.
2
U.S.
The Government’s Coming Shortfall
If Congress does not raise the debt ceiling, the Treasury will have to rely on daily incoming revenues to pay its bills and will have to choose to delay certain payments or not pay for some programs altogether.
3
Opinion
The Myth of the Medical-Device Tax
What’s actually raising health care costs is a predatory industry.
4
Multimedia/Photos
Video: Yellen on Long-Term Unemployment
Janet L. Yellen addresses long-term unemployment at the 2013 National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference.
5
World
Mother of American Imprisoned in North Korea Leaves Without Him
The mother of Kenneth Bae, who has been incarcerated for nearly a year, expressed thanks to the North Korean government for letting her see her son.
6
U.S.
California: A Rare Fish Surfaces
Staff members at the Catalina Island Marine Institute are calling the carcass of an 18-foot oarfish the discovery of a lifetime.
7
8
Sports
Canada Defeats U.S. Women in Hockey
Hayley Wickenheiser set up two goals and goalie Shannon Szabados held on after a late brawl to help Canada beat the United States in the opening game of the pre-Olympic tour.
9
Technology
Electrical Grid Is Called Vulnerable to Power Shutdown
The communications protocol used at many electric and water utilities may have flaws that some worry are not being fixed.
10
Technology
Be as Creative as a Kindergartner
Tom and David Kelley of the design firm IDEO talk about their new book, “Creative Confidence,” which offers a range of strategies for winning back the kind of creativity evident on a kindergarten playground, using “design thinking” methodologies their firm popularized.
11
Opinion
Making War on the Draft
Across the Midwest, many Americans violently resisted conscription into the Union Army.
12
World
In Syria, Motorists Press on, Yielding for War
Driving in Syria reveals the sometimes surreal experience of Syrians’ trying to move themselves and their goods around a country that has become a patchwork of rebellion and control.
13
Business Day
Canada and Europe Reach Tentative Trade Agreement
The deal, which still needs ratification by both sides, could increase bilateral trade by about 23 percent, or $35 billion, by lifting quotas and fine-tuning regulations.
14
Sports
A Washington Football Fan Breaks With Tradition
Nostalgia has a limit, and asking children to knowingly embrace an ethnic slur crosses that line.
15
Sports
First Task for Panel in New Playoff System: Easing Suspicions of Bias
Officials have acknowledged it would be hard for the 13-member college football selection committee to be perceived as neutral enough to satisfy fans’ scrutiny.
16
Arts
In Rwanda, Studio Space as Catalyst
Arts centers are encouraging new talent in a country still wrestling with its violent past.
17
Sports
First Openly Gay Fighter Loses Bout
Orlando Cruz, the first openly gay fighter in professional boxing, failed in his bid to gain the World Boxing Organization featherweight title.
18
Sports
30 Seconds With Lou Holtz
The ESPN college football analyst and Hall of Fame coach said in an interview that he favored a playoff system and opposed paying student athletes.
19
Opinion
Hope for a Malaria Vaccine
An ambitious clinical trial shows promise in protecting children against the disease.
20
U.S.
States Are Focus of Effort to Foil Health Care Law
Conservative groups are increasingly taking the fight against President Obama’s health care law to states like Virginia in an effort to block Medicaid expansion.
States (US); Medicaid; Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (2010); Law and Legislation; State Legislatures
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1
World
Between Big Cities, a Road Passes the Russia Left Behind
Along the highway between Moscow and St. Petersburg — a 12-hour trip by car — one sees great neglected stretches of land that seem drawn backward in time.
2
World
Caribbean Nations to Seek Reparations, Putting Price on Damage of Slavery
Fourteen countries plan to compile an inventory of the harm caused by the slave trade and then demand an apology and reparations from the former colonial powers Britain, France and the Netherlands.
3
U.S.
In New Book, Cheney Recalls 5 Heart Attacks and His Brush With Death
The former vice president describes, for the first time and in vivid personal detail, a four-decade medical struggle that he has largely kept secret.
4
U.S.
In New Book, Cheney Recalls 5 Heart Attacks and His Brush With Death
The former vice president describes, for the first time and in vivid personal detail, a four-decade medical struggle that he has largely kept secret.
5
7
Technology
Video: 110 Seconds With Pogue: Windows 8.1
The Times’s David Pogue weighed in on the updates to Microsoft’s Windows 8 operating systems, one of which is designed for desktops, the other for tablets.
"The fundamental problem with Windows 8 hasn’t changed: you’re still
working in two operating systems at once. You’re still leaping from one
universe into another — the color schemes, fonts and layouts all change
abruptly — and it still feels jarring. There are still too many
duplicate programs and settings, one in each environment. And you still
can never live entirely in one world or the other.
The more you work with Windows 8, the more screamingly obvious the
solution becomes: Split it up. Offer regular Windows on regular
computers, offer TileWorld on tablets. That way, everyone has to learn
only one operating system, and each operating system is suited to its
task.
There’s a reason Microsoft mostly ignored the traditional Windows
desktop world in Windows 8.1; the company is betting that all computers
will someday have touch screens. Maybe Microsoft actually believes that
someday, the mouse, keyboard, menus and windows will go away. In that
case, the lovely, fluid, vastly improved TileWorld will be all anybody
needs.
Unfortunately for that vision, reality seems to have other ideas."
I have almost enough animosity toward the touch pad to plug in a mouse.
I am not happy with the touch screen keyboard.
I will stick with my antiques until I am forced to change.
I do not yet see the new as better.
8
Opinion
Making War on the Draft
Across the Midwest, many Americans violently resisted conscription into the Union Army.
9
World
In Syria, Motorists Press on, Yielding for War
Driving in Syria reveals the sometimes surreal experience of Syrians’ trying to move themselves and their goods around a country that has become a patchwork of rebellion and control.
10
Sports
A Washington Football Fan Breaks With Tradition
Nostalgia has a limit, and asking children to knowingly embrace an ethnic slur crosses that line.
11
Business Day
Arizona Utility Tries Storing Solar Energy for Use in the Dark
Utilities are experimenting with ways to store the sun’s energy as heat, converting it into electricity before dawn and after dusk.
12
Business Day
Canada and Europe Reach Tentative Trade Agreement
The deal, which still needs ratification by both sides, could increase bilateral trade by about 23 percent, or $35 billion, by lifting quotas and fine-tuning regulations.
13
Arts
In Rwanda, Studio Space as Catalyst
Arts centers are encouraging new talent in a country still wrestling with its violent past.
14
N.Y. / Region
Librarian’s Love of Books Began in Her Struggles to Read
Patricia Ann Kettles, known as Miss Patty at the Staten Island library where she is the manager, did not finish reading her first book until she was in the fourth grade.
15
Sports
First Openly Gay Fighter Loses Bout
Orlando Cruz, the first openly gay fighter in professional boxing, failed in his bid to gain the World Boxing Organization featherweight title.
16
Sports
30 Seconds With Lou Holtz
The ESPN college football analyst and Hall of Fame coach said in an interview that he favored a playoff system and opposed paying student athletes.
17
Technology
Reconciling 2 Worlds With Windows 8.1
After a year of tinkering with the much-criticized Windows 8, Microsoft unveils (drumroll) Windows 8.1. The changes are many and useful.
18
Opinion
Hope for a Malaria Vaccine
An ambitious clinical trial shows promise in protecting children against the disease.
19
N.Y. / Region
No Doors Between Subway Cars? M.T.A. May Consider New Model
A report by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority on the future needs of the New York City subway indicated officials might consider articulated train cars — those with no doors between cars, allowing the unrestricted flow of passengers.
20
U.S.
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