Links 9/23/12

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I have been looking.  I have no idea how things will shake out short term.

I think the wheels should be coming off.  The evidence is not in.


Krugman:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/opinion/krugman-the-optimism-cure.html?ref=opinion

"Mitt Romney is optimistic about optimism. In fact, it’s pretty much all he’s got. And that fact should make you very pessimistic about his chances of leading an economic recovery. As many people have noticed, Mr. Romney’s five-point “economic plan” is very nearly substance-free. It vaguely suggests that he will pursue the same goals Republicans always pursue — weaker environmental protection, lower taxes on the wealthy. But it offers neither specifics nor any indication why returning to George W. Bush’s policies would cure a slump that began on Mr. Bush’s watch.

In his Boca Raton meeting with donors, however, Mr. Romney revealed his real plan, which is to rely on magic. “My own view is,” he declared, “if we win on November 6, there will be a great deal of optimism about the future of this country. We’ll see capital come back, and we’ll see — without actually doing anything — we’ll actually get a boost in the economy.”

Are you feeling reassured?

In fairness to Mr. Romney, his assertion that electing him would spontaneously spark an economic boom is consistent with his party’s current economic dogma. Republican leaders have long insisted that the main thing holding the economy back is the “uncertainty” created by President Obama’s statements — roughly speaking, that businesspeople aren’t investing because Mr. Obama has hurt their feelings. If you believe that, it makes sense to argue that changing presidents would, all by itself, cause an economic revival.

There is, however, no evidence supporting this dogma. Our protracted economic weakness isn’t a mystery; it’s what normally happens after a major financial crisis. Furthermore, business investment has actually recovered fairly strongly since the official recession ended. What’s holding us back is mainly the continued weakness of housing combined with a vast overhang of household debt, the legacy of the Bush-era housing bubble.

By the way, in saying that our prolonged slump was predictable, I’m not saying that it was necessary. We could and should have greatly reduced the pain by combining aggressive fiscal and monetary policies with effective relief for highly indebted homeowners; the fact that we didn’t reflects a combination of timidity on the part of both the Obama administration and the Federal Reserve, and scorched-earth opposition on the part of the G.O.P.

But Mr. Romney, as I said, isn’t offering anything substantive to fight the slump, just a reprise of the usual slogans. And he has denounced the Fed’s belated effort to step up to the plate.

Back to the optimism thing: It’s true that some studies suggest a secondary role for uncertainty in depressing the economy — and conservatives have seized on these studies, claiming vindication. But if you actually look at the measures of uncertainty involved, they’ve been driven not by fear of Mr. Obama but by events like the euro crisis and the standoff over the debt ceiling. (O.K., I guess you could argue that electing Mr. Romney might encourage businesses by promising an end to Republican economic sabotage.)

You should also know that efforts to base policy on speculations about business psychology have a track record — and it’s not a good one.

Back in 2010, as European nations began implementing savage austerity programs to placate bond markets, it was common for policy makers to deny that these programs would have a depressing effect. “The idea that austerity measures could trigger stagnation is incorrect,” insisted Jean-Claude Trichet, then the president of the European Central Bank. Why? Because these measures would “increase the confidence of households, firms and investors.”

At the time I ridiculed such claims as belief in the “confidence fairy.” And sure enough, austerity programs actually led to Depression-level economic downturns across much of Europe.

Yet here comes Mitt Romney, declaring, in effect, “I am the confidence fairy!”

Is he? As it happens, Mr. Romney offered a testable proposition in his Boca remarks: “If it looks like I’m going to win, the markets will be happy. If it looks like the president’s going to win, the markets should not be terribly happy.” How’s that going? Not very well. Over the past month conventional wisdom has shifted from the view that the election could easily go either way to the view that Mr. Romney is very likely to lose; yet markets are up, not down, with major stock indexes hitting their highest levels since the economic downturn began.

It’s all kind of sad. Yet the truth is that it all fits together. Mr. Romney’s whole campaign has been based on the premise that he can become president simply by not being Barack Obama. Why shouldn’t he believe that he can fix the economy the same way?

But will he get a chance to put that theory to the test? At the moment, I’m not optimistic."

There is no news from Europe.

• Michael Hudson: QE3 – Another Fed Giveaway to the Banks - 09/24/2012 - Yves Smith
• Philip Pilkington: The 19th Century Long Depression: How it Fostered Oligopolistic Capitalism and Serves as a Model for Austerity - 09/24/2012 - Yves Smith
• Links 9/23/12 - 09/23/2012 - Yves Smith
• “The Drugs Don’t Work”: How the Medical-Industrial Complex Systematically Suppresses Negative Studies - 09/23/2012 - Yves Smith
• On Combatting Trolls - 09/23/2012 - Yves Smith

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Links 9/23/12

late summer hitchhiker gardenpath (martha r)
Why I still shoot film Deus Ex Macchiato
Superweeds pose GM-resistant challenge for farmers BBC. A good overview.
Breaking: Drinking Sugary Sodas Makes Kids Gain Weight [Studies] Gawker. Quelle surprise!
A public service reminder: opt out of eBay’s arbitration agreement. Details here.
Verizon iPhone 5 secret? It works on AT Christian Science Monitor
Commander of the Apps, Except the One for Guilt New York Times. Hah, I refuse to get a smartphone, perhaps because I don’t have the sort of problems the author has. I also think leaving the Internet is important, and a smartphone makes that impossible.
Ecuador offers to send Assange to Sweden Financial Times
ECB in ‘panic’, say former chief economist Juergen Stark Telegraph
Time to Japanic? Noahopinion (Mark Thoma)
Australia Seeks to ‘Manage’ the Poor While Making Them Poorer Michelle Chen, Firedoglake. Australia is either extremely progressive and forward thinking or shockingly retrograde, particularly on policies related to the “abos”. You can guess which this is.
Romney’s real problem is a detachment from reality Christopher Caldwell, Financial Times. More proof the punditocracy is abandoning Romney.
Here’s what’s missing in the Romney tax reports Christian Science Monitor
FDL Book Salon Welcomes Neil Barofsky, Bailout: How I Watched Washington Rescue Wall Street While Abandoning Main Street David Dayen
Medicare Bills Rise as Records Turn Electronic New York Times
Double Amputee Shooting: Matthew Jacob Marin, Houston Officer, Kills Man In Wheelchair, Police Say Huffington Post
Wal-Mart Must Face California Bias Case, Judge Rules Bloomberg
Treasuries Recoup Most QE3 Losses Amid Growth Skepticism Bloomberg
Mortgage Market 2011 – Not a Pretty Picture Alan White, Credit Slips
C.E.O.’s and the Pay-’Em-or-Lose-’Em Myth Gretchen Morgenson, New York Times
Antidote du jour:

Read more at http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2012/09/links-92312.html#2hyuJRLHouX611K1.99

I am happy to see these lands in the forest reserve.
It took a long time for me to realize the Adirondacks are a wilderness park
and not a wilderness.
Walk gently on the land.  It does not soon forget.

http://www.dec.ny.gov/lands/83963.html

Former Finch and TNC lands to be acquired by NYS.

The "service upgrade" is suspected to be a "phishing project"
AOL does not ask for account details.  Respond at your peril.

COBRA is too expensive.  I will sign up for Medicare. 

Epsome makes satisfactory printers.  Mostly I live without hard copy.
If you must have a permanent page run the HP result through a color Xerox.
Xerox prints are archival. 

Hair is the least of my concerns.  





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