Everyone is on holiday. The world will restart tomorrow or the day after.
At the moment there is money and it has value.
The secret police have not been ordered out to cleanup.
Iran and Turkey are not at war.
The theocrats of Israel have not bombed all of Islam.
The Messiah has not appeared on earth that we know of.
Happy New Year
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/
Links New Year’s Eve
Diseased Alaska seals tested for radiation have abnormal brain growths, undersized lymph nodes — Environmental cause indicated — Also found in Russia, Canada — Bacteria becoming blood borne — White spots on liver — Walruses next? ENENews (hat tip reader MK) :-(
Carleton Watkins and the photographs that saved Yosemite Guardian (hat tip reader Buzz Potamkin)
Organic Agriculture May Be Outgrowing Its Ideals New YorkTimes
Hospice Turns Months-to-Live Patient Into Addict Bloomberg (hat tip Buzz Potamkin)
Verizon Drops Plan for New $2 Fee Wall Street Journal. Yeah! Score one for customers! Now if we could only get banks on the run about servicer-driven foreclosures.
U.S. court upholds telecom immunity for surveillance Reuters (hat tip Buzz Potamkin)
A History of Wall Street’s Women: Echoes Bloomberg (hat tip reader Steve Milm)
Sweden’s citizen-run Twitter account Aljazeera
Demonstrators brave violence in Syria Financial Times
The EU And IMF Watch In Horror As Everything Goes To Hell In Hungary Clusterstock
Occupy Beijing? Diplomat
China manufacturing activity falls again Financial Times
Lure of Chinese Tuition Squeezes Out Asian-American Students Bloomberg
OOPS! 9 Monster Mistakes That Almost Broke The Whole Damn Financial System In 2011 (BAC, RIMM) Clusterstock
Occupy activists prepare to take message to Rose Parade McClatchy (hat tip Lambert Strether)
$6.3tn wiped off markets in 2011 Financial Times
Occupied Media: Interview With Dean Baker Plutocracy Files (hat tip reader rjs)
Community encouraged to participate in Federal Foreclosure Review and Claims process Stamford Plus. Headline of e-mail message from reader Deontos:
Journal
Final 2011 Thoughts: Homeowners Drowning, Banks Soaring Michael Hirsh
Antidote du jour:
Carleton Watkins and the photographs that saved Yosemite Guardian (hat tip reader Buzz Potamkin)
Organic Agriculture May Be Outgrowing Its Ideals New York
Hospice Turns Months-to-Live Patient Into Addict Bloomberg (hat tip Buzz Potamkin)
Verizon Drops Plan for New $2 Fee Wall Street Journal. Yeah! Score one for customers! Now if we could only get banks on the run about servicer-driven foreclosures.
U.S. court upholds telecom immunity for surveillance Reuters (hat tip Buzz Potamkin)
A History of Wall Street’s Women: Echoes Bloomberg (hat tip reader Steve Milm)
Sweden’s citizen-run Twitter account Aljazeera
Demonstrators brave violence in Syria Financial Times
The EU And IMF Watch In Horror As Everything Goes To Hell In Hungary Clusterstock
Occupy Beijing? Diplomat
China manufacturing activity falls again Financial Times
Lure of Chinese Tuition Squeezes Out Asian-American Students Bloomberg
OOPS! 9 Monster Mistakes That Almost Broke The Whole Damn Financial System In 2011 (BAC, RIMM) Clusterstock
Occupy activists prepare to take message to Rose Parade McClatchy (hat tip Lambert Strether)
$6.3tn wiped off markets in 2011 Financial Times
Occupied Media: Interview With Dean Baker Plutocracy Files (hat tip reader rjs)
Community encouraged to participate in Federal Foreclosure Review and Claims process Stamford Plus. Headline of e-mail message from reader Deontos:
Noooooooo I am not making this up. It is enough to make me THROW UP. A State AG herding his constituents (with the help of a State Banking Comm.) into the Independent Foreclosure Review Slaughter A REAL PIGS-ASSThe Unraveling of MF Global Wall Street
Final 2011 Thoughts: Homeowners Drowning, Banks Soaring Michael Hirsh
Antidote du jour:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/
My review of the year (and a few predictions for 2012)
30 Dec 2011
| 3 Comments 'Euro will be stable' claim is ridiculed
30 Dec 2011
| 220 Comments FTSE 100 loses £90bn of its value in 2011
30 Dec 2011
| 43 Comments Spain plans €8.9bn of cuts but warns on deficit
30 Dec 2011
| 7 Comments Italy seeks boost to bail-out fund
30 Dec 2011
| 193 Comments Spain to unveil multi-billion euro austerity cuts
Spain's centre-right government will announce billions of euros in savings measures on Friday, using its first decrees since sweeping to power at November elections to give the nation a foretaste of tougher austerity to come.30 Dec 2011
| 90 Comments Euro crisis will be solved in 2012 - Schaeuble
Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says he's confident that Europe's politicians will manage to stabilize the eurozone in 2012 and keep the continent's common currency together.30 Dec 2011
| 82 Comments CBI: Business investment and exports, the only way forward
Next year, 2012, must be the year the UK finally stops agonising about rebalancing its economy and actually does so, said the head of the CBI in his new year message.30 Dec 2011
| 8 Comments Spain's economy worsening, says central bank
The Bank of Spain has warned that the economy has worsened, rattling investor confidence in Europe's fourth biggest economy just as recently installed prime minister Mariano Rajoy prepares to unveil his immediate budget plans.29 Dec 2011
| 83 Comments Credit crunch fears as money supply contracts
Europe is at mounting risk of a fresh credit crunch after the eurozone money supply contracted for a second month in November and the volume of private loans began to shrink.29 Dec 2011
| 294 Comments http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/
"EU CRISIS: Spain falling into gory nightmare as Merkel dreams of glory.
Wolfman Schauble has the future in his graspMeanwhile, as the year ends and financial sites try to put 2011 into perspective, the euro’s architects remain steadfast in their desire to blame everyone and everything but the fundamental idea itself.
Former French President Valery Giscard d’Estaing said in an interview this week that a key factor in the EU debt crisis was the enlargement in 2004, when 10 countries – mostly former East Bloc nations – joined the European Union. “By the time the euro was introduced, the group was no longer homogeneous,” he opined. Hmm. Never knew that Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and Greece used to be in the USSR, but then it’s all a long time ago and Val D’Oonican is getting on a bit.
“One thing was evident to me from the beginning,” says Guy Verhofstadt, Belgian prime minister from 1999 to 2008, and one of Europe’s most federalist politicians. “A state can exist without a currency, but a currency cannot exist without a state.” Nice sound-bite, but Guy maintains that the national politicians undermined the unelected Commission. Ah, so that’s where it all went wrong. Er, but if you thought that ‘from the beginning’ Guy, then why did you go ahead old fruit?
Still, these old woodentops need not fear, for the new crop of eurozealots are continuing in the same vein. Berlin clearly means to go into 2012 force-feeding the EU with more of the Brussels bollocks that landed everyone with the euro.
Wolfie Schauble yesterday predicted confidently that that crisis will be over by the end of the year, which served only to attract a storm of ridicule during the day. If the markets were going to believe Schaublespeak, they’d have started to do so by now. But at least the old fox is being notably silent these days on the inevitability of Britain joining the euro; perhaps even he recognise a soundbite too far. On the whole, however, the German finance minister seems to me to be a student of sub-atomic physics, and thus beleefs he can change ze kvantum future by ze triumph of ze vill.
Brunhilde Merkel will tell the German people (in a New Year’s address tomorrow) that more cooperation will one day make the whole of Europe just like Germany, at which point all will be well.
“A common currency can only really be successful if we in Europe cooperate more than we have done,” Geli will say, “Europe is growing together in the crisis. The path to overcoming this remains long and won’t be free from setbacks, but at the end of it, Europe will emerge stronger from the crisis than it went into it.”
Yes, well – jolly good show. Keep right on to the end of the road….and over the cliff. I loff to go a wanderung, alonk ze mountain track, und ass I go I loff to sink mit Italians on my back….val der ree, val der raaaaaarg."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/debt-crisis
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30 Dec 2011: Leading UK market's 327-point decline in a year of turbulence was a stark contrast to the US, where Dow Jones industrial average remains 6% up - 30 Dec 2011: Acknowledging the existence of long-term problems, Wolfgang Schäuble gives upbeat interview, ruling out the break-up of the 17-nation eurozone 8 comments
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Cartoon, 29 Dec 2011: Single currency stumbles after Italian bond auction
- 29 Dec 2011: Agnès Poirier: The year could not have worked out better for the president – yet he is still trailing in the polls. Will he never accept defeat? 147 comments
- 29 Dec 2011: Currency reaches 15-month low against dollar amid calls from Italian PM for greater resources for eurozone bailout fund
85 comments -
29 Dec 2011: Gavan Titley and John O'Brennan: Despite 'exceptional' efforts to meet IMF targets, Ireland has a rising deficit, sustained emigration and 15% unemployment 307 comments - 29 Dec 2011: Hans Lucht: As Greece struggles to avoid economic meltdown, immigrants have become scapegoats in racially motivated attacks 140 comments
- 28 Dec 2011: Editorial: The UK's fortunes are tied to euroland, so when disaster arrives, Britain's economy and its banks will not escape lightly
163 comments -
28 Dec 2011: Italian treasury faces bigger test as it tries to sell longer-term debt - 28 Dec 2011: Martin Feldstein: The UK is outside the eurozone, and has its own currency, so there is no risk Britain will default on its debt 103 comments
- 27 Dec 2011: Editorial: Let us fantasise that this festive quiet conceals dervish-like activity by euroland policy-makers 115 comments
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27 Dec 2011: Banks are using the low risk – but low return – ECB facility in preference to lending to other banks
No matter how black things are painted it has not fallen down yet.
http://www.zerohedge.com/
Open Thread: 2011 Closes....Down
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2011 - 16:24 Copper CRB France Gilts High Yield Implied Correlation Investment Grade United Kingdom Volatility YTD Performance
With the S&P 500 cash index closing 2011 down for the year (admittedly down 0.003181% is just 0.003181%, but it is also down),having traveled a remarkable 3240 total points from close-to-close over the course of the year, we look across asset classes and notable markets as we reflect on an increasingly intervention-driven and gap-heavy uber-correlated global investing framework. UK Gilts, 10Y Treasuries, Gold, and Oil outperformed (rebased to USD terms) while Greek bonds, Copper, Emerging Market stocks, and Asia Ex-Japan stocks underperformed. The Dollar closed almost 1% higher on the year, the EUR down 2.6% versus the USD as the CRB Commodity Index closed -6.67% for the year. Japanese stocks and bonds had a tough year. US investment grade bonds outperformed high yield bonds. There is much to discuss and we open the thread for any and all discussions...
Guest Post: 2011 - Catch-22 Year In Review
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2011 - 18:55 Alt-A Bear Stearns Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke BLS Budget Deficit Bureau of Labor Statistics China Cohen Corruption CPI CRAP Crude Debt Ceiling European Central Bank European Union Fail Federal Reserve Financial Accounting Standards Board Foreclosures Free Money Goldman Sachs goldman sachs Government Stimulus Greece Gross Domestic Product Guest Post Housing Market Illinois Iraq Ireland Italy Jamie Dimon Jeremy Grantham John Hussman John Williams Lehman Lehman Brothers Mortgage Backed Securities Mortgage Loans NASDAQ National Debt Portugal Quantitative Easing Reality Recession recovery Robert Shiller Ron Paul Russell 2000 Savings Rate Tax Revenue Unemployment Unemployment Benefits Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street mantra of stocks for the long run is beginning to get a little stale. If Abbey Joseph Cohen had been right for the last twelve years, the S&P 500 would be 4,000. For this level of accuracy, she is paid millions. Her 2011 prediction of 1,500 only missed by16%. The S&P 500 began the year at 1,258 and hasn’t budged. The lowest prediction from the Wall Street shysters at the outset of the year was 1,333, with the majority between 1,400 and 1,500. The same Wall Street clowns are now being quoted in the mainstream media predicting a 10% to 15% increase in stock prices in 2012, despite the fact we are headed back into recession, China’s property bubble has burst, and Europe teeters on the brink of dissolution. They lie on behalf of their Too Big To Tell the Truth employers by declaring stocks undervalued, when honest analysts such as Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman and Robert Shiller truthfully report that stocks are overvalued and will provide pitiful returns over the next year and the next decade.
As '11 Ends, 11 Charts Of 11 Disturbing 11 Year Trends
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2011 - 15:07 Mean Reversion As we pop the corks of our proverbial champagne this weekend with an eye to a better year ahead, perhaps it is worth thinking about these 11 incredible trends that have evolved in a rather disturbing manner over the last 11 years. As John Lohman points out, the 21st century has not been pretty for ongoing centrally planned attempts to defer the 30 year overdue mean reversion.Friday Humor: Unspinning The "€100 Bill" Or How The European Bailout REALLY 'Works'
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2011 - 14:44 Fractional Reserve Banking By now everyone has heard the parable explaining how the entire European bailout, courtesy of near-infinite fractional reserve banking, can be taken care of using one €100 bill. Or so the yet again flawed economist thinking went. Unfortunately, this was just a parable, and a massively flawed one at that. As the below interaction between a ZH reader and his broker elucidates, here is what this idealized story would look like in the real world, that as we explained before, is drowning in about $21.2 trillion in excess debt.Weekly Bull/Bear Recap: December 26-30, 2011
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2011 - 14:38 Budget Deficit China Conference Board Consumer Confidence European Central Bank Eurozone Exchange Traded Fund Failed Auction Goldman Sachs goldman sachs Housing Market Hungary International Monetary Fund Italy Japan Reality Recession recovery Unemployment Yen Concise summary of this holiday-shortened, liquidity-restrained week's bullish and bearish headlines and events.Guest Post: New Asian Union Means The Fall Of The Dollar
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2011 - 13:42 Bond China Federal Reserve Global Economy Guest Post India Japan Meltdown Quantitative Easing Reality Reserve Currency Reuters Totalitarianism Trade Deficit Trade War Yen Yuan
The genius of globalization is not in how it “works”, but in how it DOESN’T work. Globalization chains mismatched cultures together through circumstance and throws us into the deep end of the pool. If one sinks, we all sink, enslaving us with interdependency. The question one must ask, then, is if all sovereign economies are currently tied together in the same way? The answer is no, not anymore. Certain countries have moved to insulate themselves from the domino effect of debt implosion, one of the primary examples being China. Since at least 2005, China has been taking the exact steps required to counter the brunt of a global debt collapse; not enough to make it untouchable, but enough that its infrastructure will survive. One could even surmise that China’s actions indicate a foreknowledge of the events that would eventually escalate in 2008. How they knew is hard to say, but if the available evidence causes you to lean towards collapse as a Hegelian creation (and it should if you are paying any attention), then China’s activity begins to make perfect sense. If a globalist insider told you that in a few short years the two most powerful financial empires in the world were going to topple like bowling pins under the weight of their own liabilities, what would you do? Probably separate yourself as much as possible from the diseased dynamic and construct your own replacement system. This is what China has done…
Complete European Sovereign Issuance Calendar
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2011 - 13:27 Bond France Italy Morgan Stanley Sovereigns
Earlier in the week, we discussed at length the funding gaps that various European sovereign nations face as the gap between supply and coupon/redemptions can't be assumed to be rolled away (and Europe faces EUR43.5bn of net cash-flow surplus from sovereigns into the 'market'). In order to better comprehend the timeline, Morgan Stanley has published both the complete issuance calendar for European bonds and bills over the next five weeks as well as a breakdown of the flows that are dominated by next week and the first week of February. It seems the market this week is starting to reprice for this risk in Italy and France not being able to roll so easily (and perhaps front-run that 'cash-flow' into US Treasuries as a haven) as the latter faces a considerable supply and flow on Thursday January 5th.The Real Tragedy Of The Euro
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/30/2011 - 12:15 Eurozone Mises Institute Sovereign Debt
The realization that the European debacle is much more an issue of political harmonization and Empire-building than one of pure economic band-aid provision should be clear to any- and every-one who has followed the words and deeds of the various European factions for the past year or two. Yesterday, we discussed the dithering and competing camps but what is really critical is to understand how we got here and what the underlying social and political wills are among all of the players. There is no better summation of the formation, driving forces, and tensions among European leaders and central bankers than Phillip Bagus' 'Tragedy Of The Euro'. From the simple divergence of the dual visions of Europe with northern libertarians and southern socialists to the Bundesbank's fearsome reputation for showing up weak governments, Bagus offers a clear perspective on why the EMU is a 'self-destroying' and 'conflict-aggregating' system but counters that with some views on what the outcome will be and how French governmental pressure remains the cornerstone of the establishment of a European Empire for better or more likely for worse. As we enter a new year with the first quarter dominated by action-forcing events, perhaps there has never been a more important time to understand the political and economic vices and virtues of the European nations.http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/
30 December 2011 Last updated at 19:41 ET
Spain sets out new spending cuts
Spain's new conservative government announces 8.9bn euros in austerity measures in order to lower the country's borrowing. - What's the matter with Spain?
- How will the euro crisis end?
- Eurozone in crisis graphics - GDP
- Eurozone debt domino effect
Global markets finish a wild 2011
World stock markets finish one of the most dramatic years for the global economy, with most well down for the year. Euro remains near lows for 2011
The euro is near its low for the year following a tumultuous 12 months in which its existence has been questioned.http://www.spiegel.de/international/topic/euro_crisis/
DPA
Endangered Currency
First Greece -- then Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal: The European common currency has come under pressure from large national debts and the effects of the global financial crisis, ultimately requiring a rescue package close to a trillion euros.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/31/a-thought-on-debt-history/
Keynes Was Right
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Once again, when politicians and policy makers decided to focus on deficits, not jobs, they proved Keynes right about a slump being the wrong time for austerity.
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