Monday, December 19, 2011

@01:10, 12/18/11 2 @09:34 4

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http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/05/24/the-downsized-college-graduate


Introduction

the downsized college graduateEd Nacional
The employment rate for new college graduates has fallen steeply in the last two years, a Times article reported last week, and many of those who have gotten jobs find that the pay is low and the work does not require a college degree.
The reporter, Catherine Rampell, wrote in a later blog post that some older readers cited factors other than the economy for the drop in the number of new graduates in the work force: that young people have a sense of entitlement, were sheltered by their parents, and partied through college. Or, if they worked automatons, they took no risks, expecting to be rewarded no matter what.

Previous generations of graduates had trouble finding jobs during bad times, and complained about having to work in clerical jobs or at places like the Gap. Are there reasons besides the economy to explain why today's group is different? Are some students affected more than others? How can we do a better job of steeling young people for the cruel world?


http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/12/failure-to-launch/
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/22/work-of-depressions-watch/

" March 22, 2011, 9:02 am

Work of Depressions Watch

Mark Thoma leads us to new research from the San Francisco Fed showing that recent college graduates have experienced a large rise in unemployment and sharp fall in full-time employment, coupled with a decline in wages. Why is this significant?
The answer is that it’s one more nail in the coffin of the notion that employment is depressed because we have the wrong kind of workers, or maybe workers in the wrong place.
In some ways I think framing the discussion in terms of “structural unemployment” isn’t helpful. It may be better to say that a number of influential people want us to believe that Great Recession is serving some useful purpose — that the economy is “recalculating”, that it’s getting carpenters out of Nevada to jobs where they’re needed, etc.. It’s the same idea that Schumpeter pushed in the now-infamous passage in which he opposed any attempt to mitigate the Great Depression, even through monetary policy:
DESCRIPTION
The right question to ask, with regard to all such arguments, is, where are the scarcities? If we have the wrong kind of workers, then the right kind of workers must be in high demand, and either be in short supply or have rapidly rising wages. So where are these people? If the problem is lack of skill, then highly skilled workers — such as recent college graduates — should be doing well. If the problem is too many carpenters in Nevada, then non-carpenters somewhere else must be doing well. Who? Where?
Well, if there are such people, they’re doing a very good job of hiding.
This is a demand-side slump; the evidence is grossly inconsistent with any other story."

Krugman published on the income expectations of people graduating in "hard times".  I have been looking for it and not finding it.
His claim, as I remember it, was that there is no recovery from initial failure to find a paying job.


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  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
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    Cardenas
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    • Dave Scott recommended a blog post:
      May 25, 2011
      A Gap for Latino Graduates - Room for Debate
      Fully 89 percent of young Latinos say a college degree is essential, while the jobless rate for Latino graduates has spiked.

      This is one argument in the "Room for debate" column.
      http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/05/24/the-downsized-college-graduate

      May 24, 2011
      The Downsized College Graduate 
       

      In a Wage Rut for Years

      Till von Wachter Till von Wachter, economist, Columbia University
      Till von Wachter has not been paying attention. 
      Smug and happy in an Austrian ivory tower.
       
       Her children must abuse her.
       A different sample of the population.  
      Her students have good family support.
       
       Richard Arum believes in training, not in education.
      Avoid his classes.
       "Now as they enter the world of work during the worst recession in memory, more than half have not be able to get a full-time, salaried job with benefits, nearly half find themselves in jobs that do not even require a college diploma, and nearly one in 10 are unemployed."
      These are graduates.
       "When asked why they are not enrolled in school, the number one reason cited was a need to support family. Some 74 percent of young Latinos not enrolled in school said this. Even so, young Latinos are optimistic. According to our 2009 survey, 72 percent expect to be better off financially than their parents. Last year’s census counted 50.5 million Latinos in the U.S., accounting for 16.3 percent of all Americans, but their share among the nation’s children is even greater: nearly 1 in 4 are Latino."
      This looks like Roman Catholicism to me. 
       
       " It has historically taken 10 years for the student graduating during a typical recession to reach the level she otherwise would have reached. Now it may take a lifetime. We are mortgaging the future of society by constraining the choices and opportunities of our undergraduates."
       
       
Their lifetime.







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November 18, 2011, 12:57 pm

The Brüning Thing

Joe Weisenthal tells us about an analyst willing to risk a Godwin’s Law citation; Dylan Grice of SocGen points out that it was the deflationary policies of 1930-32, not the inflation of 1923, that brought you-know-who to power.
Indeed. When we hear assertions that Germans are deeply hostile to loose money because of their historical memories, I always wonder why those memories are so selective. Why is 1923 seared into collective memory, while the Brüning disaster has apparently gone down the memory hole?
This is important — and there’s not much time to get the record straight.

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