Monday, October 24, 2022

@20:26, 10/9/22

 |

 

1

Ian Welsh1 day ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. AKA: no Ukraine or Covid. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.    As soon as you can is best.
 
2
Ian Welsh2 days ago
Addendum To My Fifteen Points On The Ukraine War
[image: Addendum To My Fifteen Points On The Ukraine War] Decided a little more needed to be added to the post, but email went out just before I added it, so I’m putting it here. *Addendum:* My argument, from the beginning, has always been simple: Russia can mobilize more men than Ukraine and has reason to do so. Unless they are weaker internally/China than I think or NATO intervenes more than I think, they will eventually have a conventional military victory. Of course, I could be wrong, but nothing which has happened yet has changed my view. What has happened is that NATO was wi... read more
 
Noise.
 
3
Ian Welsh2 days ago
Fourteen Points About the Future of the Ukraine War
[image: Fourteen Points About the Future of the Ukraine War] Let’s lay it out. First: the next two to three months belong to Ukraine. They have the initiative and new Russian troops will take time to arrive. Second: Russia is almost certainly mobilizing more than 300K troops, the bill allowed for one million. The more they mobilize the more training time will be required; not just because there are more troops but because they are reaching deeper into reserves to people who have been out for longer. Third: When enough of those troops reach the front, Russia will stop their territo... read more
 
Putin is wrong on Ukraine.
The energy infrastructure of the "West" will lose fossil carbon.
 
Ian Welsh4 days ago
Rationality Is A Process, Not A Conclusion (Nuclear Weapons Edition)
[image: Rationality Is A Process, Not A Conclusion (Nuclear Weapons Edition)] A lot of mistakes come from assuming rationality means “thinks the same way I do” rather than “reasons from premises I might not share.” Left than 1/1000 economists predicted the financial collapse, because they reasoned from assumptions like “the market is self-correcting” or “housing prices never go down.” (Sometimes both at the same time, which is rarely rational.) Back in 2008 I wrote an article saying the next war w/Russia would be over Sevastopol/Crimea. I was told by Eurocrats that was impossible,... read more
 
Rationality is defined by the thinker's axioms.
Russia  has not the axioms of NATO.

5
Ian Welsh5 days ago
Vaccine And Mask Effectiveness
[image: Vaccine And Mask Effectiveness] I have mostly avoided the vaccine debate, but let’s take a brief pass. This isn’t because vaccines don’t work. This doesn’t mean I’m entirely happy with MRNA vaccines, I’m not and I think there’s some validity to them having negative side-effects. I’m even more unhappy with the uneven way they were applied, which allowed for Covid to gain repeated mutations which made vaccines less effective. I personally would have taken Sputnik-V if it were allowed in my country. But the vaccines are protective against death and serious illness is indicate... read more
 
Zero Covid is not possible.
Strategies to reduce infection do work mostly.

6
Ian Welsh1 week ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 2, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 2, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – October 2, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Global power shift as USA and west commit suicide by neoliberalism* *The U.S. Is Winning Its War On Europe’s Industries And People * [Moon of Alabama, via Naked Capitalism 9-27-2022] *The epidemic* *“‘Other Places in the Country Didn’t Do This’: How One California Town Survived Covid Better Than the Rest”* [Politico, via Naked Capitalism Water Cooler 9-27-2022] t “Even with its world-class technologies, the university’s labs didn’t have equipment ... read more
 
Other news.
The Times should be accessible to you as it was.

7
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discussThe topics unrelated to recent posts. No Covid or Ukraine related discussion. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.   As soon as you can is best.
 
8
Ian Welsh1 week ago
America Defeats Germany Again
[image: America Defeats Germany Again] There’s a good article in Der Spiegel on the German energy/industrial crisis which is worth your time. Basically industries which have high energy costs are being crushed. In particular this means chemical and automotive, both big in Germany, but extends far further. (Indeed, the chemical industry was essentially invented by Germany in the 19th century, and American industry exists because the patents were broken in WWI and not reinstated after the war.) This has a lot of knock-on effects, not only in price increases (which are big), but sho... read more
 
International relations are difficult.
 
9
Ian Welsh1 week ago
The Attacks On Nord Stream I & II
[image: The Attacks On Nord Stream I & II] Let’s point out the obvious. Russia had no reason to attack its own pipelines. If it doesn’t want gas to go thru them it just turns off the tap. Sabotage to the pipelines weakens Russia’s position, since it will be months before they can offer to turn fuel back on, which they would have wanted to offer during the winter in order to pressure Germany in specific and Europe in general. Anyone who says or believes that Russia did this is either a moron, a propagandist or has had their mind so twisted by Russia-hatred they can no longer think s... read more
 
Possibly big oil.
 
10
Ian Welsh1 week ago
No The Solution To Ending Mandatory Masking Isn’t "Well YOU can still mask”
[image: No The Solution To Ending Mandatory Masking Isn’t] Few things make more more tired or contemptuous of someone than, when a masking mandate is removed, someone saying “well, you still have the choice to wear a mask, we’re not effecting you” or some variation. Masking is not primarily about protecting yourself. Only a respirator and a well-fitted N95 offer good protection from Covid if other people aren’t masking. Now that chart may be making you feel safe if you go quickly in and out of businesses, but realize that there are multiple people in those buildings and that in... read more
 
Reduced contagion is not zero.

11
Ian Welsh1 week ago
How Peace In Ukraine Has Been Made Almost Impossible
[image: How Peace In Ukraine Has Been Made Almost Impossible] To make peace either one side has to be unable to fight any more, or both sides must want to make peace. One problem in Ukraine is that both sides (and I don’t mean Ukraine and Russia, but Ukraine/NATO v. Russia) have put themselves into a trap where the leaders of various countries can’t afford to lose the war, because they will lose power. Support for Ukraine is popular in Europe, but it is also true that such support has cost the Europeans a great deal, and that ordinary Europeans have seen bad economic times as a re... read more
 
Only the headline matters.
 
12
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 25, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 25, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 25, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *The Making Of “LINCOLN” Behind The Scenes* [TW: A enthralling discussion of how they strove to make the film as authentic as possible. The clock ticking heard in the background of some scenes, for example, was a recording made of a watch Lincoln had actually owned. And Daniel Day Lewis describing how he researched and came to love Lincoln as a person is simply marvelous.] *Light Under a Bushel: Eric Foner, interviewed by Nawal Arjini* [The New... read more
 
More domestic news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0CQsifJrMc
 
13
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent posts. (No Ukraine, in other words.) Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.  As soon as you can is best.
 
14
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Effects of the 300K Russian Mobilization
[image: Effects of the 300K Russian Mobilization] Putin has called up 300K Russian reservists. These are people who had military service, but unlike the National Guard in the US or other similar reserve forces they do not attend regular training. I’m seeing both reports of Russian men fleeing the country and of volunteers not in the call-up reporting. Bear in mind that Russia has somewhat more than 2 million reservists, this is a little over one-seventh of the men they can call up. The quality of these forces will be low, but they aren’t raw recruits. Russia’s primary liability i... read more
 
Russia is slow off their mark.
Their lines are thinly held.
 
15
Ian Welsh2 weeks ago
Machiavelli On Putin
[image: Machiavelli On Putin] Back in 2014 I wrote an article which started from the problems that Russia was happening at the Sochi Winter Olympics. It wasn’t running smoothly, and that was interesting and a warning of the limits of what Putin had done in Russia. The Beijing Olympics ran almost like clockwork, the 1980 Moscow Olympics worked relatively well, but not Sochi. Russia’s got problem, big ones, and Sochi has highlighted them. Putin has failed to transition the economy from resources, and he has not kept corruption under limits: corruption is one thing, that the system ca... read more
 
Putin has not governed the middle population. 

16
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 18, 2022
[image: Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 18, 2022] Week-end Wrap – Political Economy – September 18, 2022 by Tony Wikrent *Economics as cultural warfare* *Our Ancestors Thought We’d Build an Economic Paradise. Instead We Got 2022 * Brad DeLong [Time, via Naked Capitalism 9-11-2022] Adapted from DeLong’s new book, Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century, published by Basic Books…. …the first half of the Big Story of twentieth-century economic history is a triumphant one. Friedrich von Hayek was a genius. He saw clearly that the market e... read more
 
The left and the right object to the center.
 
17
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Open Thread
[image: Open Thread] Use to discuss topics unrelated to recent comments. Facebook Twitter WhatsApp LinkedIn read more
 
Sooner is better.  As soon as you can is best.
 
18
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Understanding and Surviving the Post-Prosperity Era
[image: Understanding and Surviving the Post-Prosperity Era] I don’t usually write about my personal life much, but today will be an exception. The other day I had to go the hospital, to a cancer clinic (nothing to sweat, I have the type of cancer with a 98% survival rate) and the clinic I was at had only one doctor. It normally has three or four. I asked the nurse, and she told me that the others were out with Covid. Emergency departments across Canada are having shut-downs because they don’t have enough nurses. Covid, either temporary, or nurses having quit because they can’t ta... read more
 
If developments follow this path billions will die.
 
19
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Lazy V.S. Uninterested & Quiet Quitting
[image: Lazy V.S. Uninterested & Quiet Quitting] Being lazy and being uninterested are two different things. When I was a kid I was usually reluctant to do most farm work, because it was boring, but would go for 10 miles runs or long runs, or read multiple books in a day (which many people who love farm work would hate doing.) Most of what passes for lazy is uninterested in drag. The old maxim: “work is what you wouldn’t do for free” is part of it, but there are four types of activities on this spectrum. 1. “I enjoy doing it for itself and would do it even if I wasn’t getting ... read more
 
"Incentives work, but they work best at getting people to do things which shouldn’t be done in the first place."
 
20
Ian Welsh3 weeks ago
Solutions: Cash and Cashlessness
[image: Solutions: Cash and Cashlessness] Recently I saw the observation that you can track gentrification by the spread of shops that won’t take cash. This is a problem because a lot of people don’t have credit or debit cards, even still. It’s easy to wind up “unbanked”. It’s also the case that cashless societies have walked a fair way down the authoritarian path. The solution is simple enough: 1. make it illegal for retail stores to refuse cash. 2. Create a national “cash card”, similar to gift cards, and mandate that it must be accepted by any retailer, offline or onli... read more
 
Cashless stores are just a nuisance.  
They will not survive in a broken society.
There must be functioning banks,
 
 
Use the Times.
The access works again.
 
||

No comments:

Post a Comment