1
Q1 GDP Forecasts: Around 2%
From Merrill Lynch:
*We continue to track 1.9% for 1Q GDP growth.* [April 12 estimate]
emphasis added
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at *1.4% for 2019:Q1* and 2.0% for
2019:Q2. [Apr 12 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual
rate) in the *first quarter of 2019 is 2.3 percent* on April 8, up from 2.1
percent on April 2. [Apr 8 estimate]
CR Note: These estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 2%
annualized in Q1.
CR is probably high here.
The Fed measures high.
2
The idea was suggested as the president condemned migrant caravans from
Central America headed toward the southwestern border, people familiar with
the plan said.
Refugees without the right to work will raise social support costs.
Others pain is important to Trump.
3
Assange: A Self-Proclaimed Foe of Secrecy Who Inspires Both Admiration and Fury
From his beginnings as a teenage hacker in Australia to his arrest this
week in London, the WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has been a deeply
divisive figure.
If the material was secret, it was not copyright.
It will be difficult to win the hacking case against Assange.
4
After Arrest of Julian Assange, the Russian Mysteries Remain
An indictment charging Mr. Assange with conspiring to hack into a Pentagon
computer does not mention WikiLeaks’ role in Russia’s interference in the
2016 campaign.
Hillary Clinton's email is an obsession of the Republican party.
5
Lobbyist Gets Probation for Failing to Disclose Work for Pro-Russia Forces in Ukraine
Samuel Patten had pleaded guilty in a case that grew out of the Mueller
investigation. He helped a Ukrainian billionaire illegally buy tickets to
President Trump’s inauguration.
Samuel Patten must have been fully cooperative.
6
Over 3 A.M. Dissent, Supreme Court Says Alabama Execution May Proceed
The 5-to-4 ruling, issued in the middle of the night, provided a rare
glimpse of the inner working of a court bitterly divided on the death
penalty.
The Republican party likes to bury its problems.
7
Comey Defends Trump Campaign Surveillance: ‘I Have Never Thought of That as Spying’
Mr. Comey, who oversaw the inquiry into ties between President Trump’s
associates and Russia, said he knew of no illegal surveillance directed at
the campaign.
Republicans are not above the law.
8
Press Freedoms and the Case Against Julian Assange, Explainedr
A narrow indictment sidestepped long-running fears that bringing a case
against the WikiLeaks founder could undermine press freedoms, but many
questions remain.
Julian Assange may never stand trial in the U.S.
The prosecutors are searching for a crime.
9
Housing and Recessions
Following the recent bounce back in some of the housing reports, I'd like
to update a couple of graphs.
For the economy, *what we should be focused on are single family starts and
new home sales*. As I noted in Investment and Recessions "New Home Sales
appears to be an excellent leading indicator, and currently new home sales
(and housing starts) are up solidly year-over-year, and this suggests there
is no recession in sight."
For the bottoms and troughs for key housing activity, here is a graph of
Single family housing starts, New Home Sales, and Residential Investment
(RI) as a p... more »
I would be nervous if I were speculating.
I am still mending.
10
Military Drills in Arctic Aim to Counter Russia, but the First Mission Is to Battle the Cold
Moscow is moving to claim Arctic territory as barriers between Russia and
North America melt. Yet still bitter temperatures pose an immediate threat
to NATO troops defending icy waterways.
The troops need to learn.
General winter has backed Moscow.
11
From Refugee to Pentagon Correspondent, Helene Cooper on Covering ‘the Best Beat in Washington’
Reporting on the military comes with some perks, like flying in bomber
planes and playing with high-tech equipment.
Decisions get made in Washington. People need to know them.
"In times of peace, prepare for war"
12
Eat the Young: Student Loan Version
So, does this look predation to you? It looks like predation to me. Here’s
the thing, in the bankruptcy bill, Joe Biden, among others, made it
impossible to default on student loans. This is bad. It is bad capitalism.
In capitalism, people who lend money are supposed to bear the risk of
lending money. If […]
It is predation.
13
On Politics: Julian Assange, Now in Custody, Faces U.S. Hacking Charge
NYT > Politics - 12 hours ago
The WikiLeaks founder empowered a generation of whistle-blowers, but he was
a highly problematic champion for press freedom and the public’s right to
know.
"Congress
is leaving for a two-week spring recess without fulfilling the most
pressing item on its agenda: aid to victims of floods, fires, and
hurricanes. The biggest point of contention? Helping Puerto Rico."
14 15
White House Considered Releasing Migrants in ‘Sanctuary Cities’
Trump is a sadist.
16
Comey Defends Trump Campaign Surveillance: ‘I Have Never Thought of That as Spying’
Mr. Comey, who oversaw the inquiry into ties between President Trump’s
associates and Russia, said he knew of no illegal surveillance directed at
the campaign.
The report is important.
19
On Politics With Lisa Lerer: Twitter Is a Big Deal in Politics. That Doesn’t Make It Right.
Individual opinion.
20
White House Moves to Gain More Control Over Federal Regulations
A memorandum from the Office of Management and Budget would subject rules
from independent agencies, including the Federal Reserve, to review.
Autocracy.
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