Friday, June 29, 2012

@23:05, 6/28/12

There is a summit conference on the euro zone.

Nothing is resolved and few external developments are allowed.

We wait for the failure to be spun to the world through the press.

The phrase: "Form a committee and see what can be done by talking"  echos in my memory.

I think it is in the "Rootabaga Stories", by Carl Sandburg

Google does not find it. 
http://www.gutenberg.org/files/27085/27085-h/27085-h.htm
Enjoy the book.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/

Italy and Spain threaten to block 'everything'

Italy and Spain demand immediate eurozone aid to reduce borrowing costs or threaten to block 'everything'.
28 Jun 2012
| 125 Comments

MP: 'powerful case for EU referendum'

Conservative MP John Baron explains why he and over 90 MPs have called on the Prime Minister to commit to a referendum on the nature of the UK's relationship with the EU within the next Parliament.
28 Jun 2012

After Barclays, golden age of finance is dead

If the City is shackled, Britain as a whole will suffer, says Jeremy Warner
28 Jun 2012
| 131 Comments

Banks face crippling Libor litigation costs

Britain's banks face costs running into tens of billions of pounds from the Libor scandal if US litigants prove they were the victims of four years of mispricing, City experts have warned.
28 Jun 2012
| 5 Comments

France and Germany clash at euro summit

François Hollande and Angela Merkel have clashed over calls from Italy and Spain for urgent European Union action to relieve their borrowing costs, after their pleas were dismissed as "scaremongering" by allies of the German chancellor.
28 Jun 2012
| 32 Comments

PM vows to secure 'safeguards' for UK

The Prime Minister voices his frustration at lack of eurozone progress and says he hopes decisions can be made to help overcome the eurozone crisis at a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels.
28 Jun 2012
| 20 Comments

Taxpayers 'face another £1.3bn bill'

British taxpayers will have to pledge another £1.3 billion as part of efforts to resolve the eurozone crisis, it has been claimed.
28 Jun 2012
| 21 Comments

Debt crisis: as it happened, June 28, 2012

Italy and Spain last night threatened to block “everything” at a crisis summit to save the European Union’s single currency unless they got immediate eurozone aid to bring down their borrowing costs.
28 Jun 2012
| 877 Comments

Banks face billions of dollars of claims after Barclays settles

Damages claims running to billions of dollars against the world’s biggest banks have been given fresh “credibility” by Barclays £290m Libor settlement, lawyers said.
27 Jun 2012
| 16 Comments

Merkel dismisses Spain and Italy's pleas for aid

Pleas from Spain and Italy for urgent financial aid from the eurozone to bring down borrowing costs were dismissed by Angela Merkel as divisions hardened on the eve of a critical summit.
27 Jun 2012
| 629 Comments

Debt crisis: as it happened - June 27, 2012

Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande meet in Paris to try to square their differences over the debt crisis after the German chancellor ruled out eurobonds for 'as long as I live'.
27 Jun 2012
| 752 Comments
 
 
 
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/debt-crisis
 
Angela Merkel and Mario Monti at the EU summit

Euro talks stall over borrowing costs

28 Jun 2012: Italy and Spain block endorsement of 'growth pact' unless measures are introduced to soften terms on financial assistance 
 
 
 
 
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/28/double-scotch-time/
 

Double Scotch Time

Yes, I’m on vacation. And I’ve tried not to think about Scotus, even though I was campaigning for universal health care long before it was fashionable. But I did have a feeling of dread in the pit of my stomach this morning, all the same.
And then the ruling came down; fortunately, I was reading Scotusblog, not watching CNN — and I was so hyper that I needed medication.
Health reform may yet be killed. But not today. And never mind the horserace politics: ordinary Americans have just won big.

Good.
 
 

Doubling Down

Brad DeLong is not happy with some of his fellow intellectuals:
Those who said that there would be no downturn, or that recovery would be rapid, or that the economy’s real problems were structural, or that supporting the economy would produce inflation (or high short-term interest rates), or that immediate fiscal austerity would be expansionary were wrong. Not just a little wrong. Completely wrong.
Of course, we historically-minded economists are not surprised that they were wrong. We are, however, surprised at how few of them have marked their beliefs to market in any sense. On the contrary, many of them, their reputations under water, have doubled down on those beliefs, apparently in the hope that events will, for once, break their way, and that people might thus be induced to forget their abysmal forecasting track record.
Actually, has even one prominent economist or economic prognosticator who got everything wrong admitted it, or shown even a hint of humility? Has anyone perhaps hinted that the policy recommendations he was making might not be right, given the total failure of events to go the way he predicted? I can’t think of one.
This crisis has been an object lesson in both the uses of history and the unpleasant side of human nature.
 
 Fun ?

A Manifesto for Economic Sense

As regular readers know, I’ve been arguing for a long time that policy makers have misunderstood the nature of our economic crisis, mistaking symptoms for causes, and responding in ways that make the situation worse. Richard Layard and I now have a manifesto laying out the essence of this case, and are asking other economists to sign on.
 
Plainly stated.
 
 
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/merkel-seeks-historic-reforms-as-euro-crisis-intensifies-a-841495.html
 
The Thursday political cartoon in the Financial Times Deutschland couldn't be easier to decipher. It depicts the Grim Reaper standing over an aged, bed-ridden Angela Merkel saying: "It is time." Merkel responds: "For euro bonds, I know."

The drawing refers to the chancellor's comments made Tuesday afternoon during a meeting with parliamentarians belonging to her junior coalition partner, the Free Democrats. Euro bonds, she said according to meeting participants, would not be introduced in the euro zone "as long as I live." The statement was widely interpreted as Merkel finally losing patience with demands from southern European countries that euro-zone debt be communitized. Instead of bending to the political breeze, Merkel had finally turned into "Iron Angie." But is that really what she meant? There are several indications that the answer could be no. First and foremost, the Chancellery has been at pains since Tuesday evening to elaborate on the context within which the "as long as I live" sentence was uttered. In reality, several papers, citing Chancellery sources, are reporting on Thursday that she was outlining the complexity of the reforms necessary before such shared debt could be introduced. As such, euro bonds aren't likely "in her lifetime." In other words, the Chancellery is insisting, Merkel remains the voice of calm and reason rather than one of hysteria and division.
Furthermore, in her speech before German parliament on Wednesday, her line on euro bonds was the same as it has always been -- shared debt might make an appearance eventually, but only at the end of a long political and fiscal reform process.
Hijacking the Debate
Still, something has changed in the Chancellery. Merkel's message has become shriller and more urgent as demands from Southern Europe for shared debt have become louder. The reason is not difficult to divine: From Merkel's perspective, the narrative of impending disaster threatens to hijack the debate.
Spain and Italy, in particular, are demanding to know what European leaders are going to do to provide immediate financial market relief. Both countries are struggling under extremely high and rising borrowing costs and it seems unlikely that the euro zone can afford to bail both countries out should the need arise. They believe an existential crisis is emerging. Some see salvation in euro bonds. Others see a solution in shorter period euro bills or a common debt repayment fund and some in all of the above.
For the German chancellor, however, that discussion is akin to putting a very explosive cart before the horse. Instead, she wants to talk about tightening budget oversight. About a banking union. About further EU political integration. About a transfer of national sovereignty to Brussels. Merkel wants nothing less than a complete overhaul of the European Union -- including far-reaching changes to EU treaties and, likely, to national constitutions -- and she wants to start at the summit on Thursday. Only then, she has said repeatedly, can the idea of shared debt be addressed.
In short, she and other European leaders are talking past one another -- and the euro could ultimately fall victim to the disconnect.
Merkel's conviction that only fundamental reform efforts -- concrete steps toward the political union which the original architects of the common currency failed to put in place -- can save the euro in the long run informed her Wednesday assault against the plan presented earlier this week by the so-called Gang of Four. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, Euro Group President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi worked out a possible plan to pull the euro back from the brink.
Badly Needed Reforms
But Merkel on Wednesday excoriated their proposal. "I profoundly disagree with the stance taken in the report that precedence is given to mutualization, and that more control and enforceable commitments take second place and are phrased in very imprecise terms," said Merkel. "There is a clear discrepancy between liability and control in this report, so I fear that the summit will once again talk too much about all kinds of ideas for possible joint liability, and much too little about improved controls and structural measures."
Her speech ended with a very un-Merkel-like broadside: "Our work must convince those who have lost confidence in the euro zone, not by self-deception and sham solutions but by fighting the causes of the crisis."
Once one ignores the shrillness of her recent delivery, however, it is easy to recognize the message that Merkel has been harping on since the very early days of the euro crisis. First, political reforms to improve fiscal responsibility and economic competitiveness are necessary in euro-zone member states. Then, the European Union in general and the euro-zone specifically must deepen its fiscal and political integration.
With the flaws of the euro zone now exposed for all to see, Merkel appears to be on the verge of achieving a giant step toward her European dream. The euro-zone's debt-stricken nations have almost all pushed through far-reaching political and labor market reforms. Just on Wednesday, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti managed to pass the final legislative piece of a package of measures aimed at liberalizing Italy's labor market and creating jobs. He has also installed significant austerity measures and raised taxes, paths that Portugal, Greece and Ireland have all undertaken. Spain is in the process of examining badly needed reforms of its financial system. Of course, many argue that the economies of many of those countries are also suffering as a result of the strict austerity measures Merkel has promoted.
Dark Realism of the Moment
Still, it would appear that history is suddenly on Merkel's side. Reaching an agreement on creating a Europe-wide banking union alone would represent a huge step toward the integration that the Chancellery believes is vital for the long-term survival of the euro.

Europe, of course, would never have gotten this far without the narrative of disaster. Avoiding the abyss has always provided the necessary motivation. Now that Merkel sees the real possibility of concrete steps toward political union, however, she wants to turn down the volume on despair and refocus on idealism. Monti refuses to cooperate. Without immediate measures to bring down borrowing costs, the crisis could unleash "political forces which say 'let European integration, let the euro, let this or that large country go to hell,' which would be a disaster for the whole of the European Union."
It is this clash, between long-term vision and short-term fear, that will shape this week's summit. Whether Merkel's idealism has the power to overcome the dark realism of the moment remains to be seen."
No.
 
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18620965
 We will see if this survives the cool light of morning.
I see no news of the debt clearance that is required.

Eurozone agrees on bank recapitalisation

 
 
Speaking after 13 hours of talks in Brussels', EU chief Herman van Rompuy also said a eurozone-wide supervisory body for banks would be created.
Officials said the plans could be finalised during July.
Analysts say Germany appears to have given ground after pressure from Spain and Italy to provide more support.
The two southern European countries had withheld support from an earlier plan to for a growth package worth 120bn euros (£96bn; $149bn).
They wanted measures to lower their borrowing costs.
Mr Rompuy said the new proposals would break the "vicious circle" between banks and national governments.
The BBC's Andrew Walker in Brussels says although Germany appears to have compromised, Chancellor Angela Merkel has managed to ensure that Brussels has more control over the finances of eurozone countries, something she had wanted.
The deal came about after new French President Francois Hollande appeared to throw his weight behind Italy and Spain.
"I'm here to try to find rapid solutions for those countries facing pressure from the market, despite having made huge efforts to balance their budgets," the socialist French president said.
The new growth package, announced by Mr Rompuy, is made up of:
  • A 10bn-euro boost of capital for the European Investment Bank, expected to raise overall lending capacity by 60bn euros
  • Targeting 60bn euros of unused structural funds to help small enterprises and create youth employment
  • A pilot launch of EU project bonds worth 4.5bn euros for infrastructure improvements, focusing on energy, transport and broadband.
In Brussels, both Italy and Spain were pushing the eurozone bloc to agree steps to reduce the interest rates the two countries have to pay. Spanish 10-year government bonds were trading at yields above 6.9% on Thursday, coming close to the 7% considered unaffordable.
Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said debt sustainability was a pressing problem.
"We are paying rates that are too high to finance ourselves and there are many Spanish public institutions that cannot finance themselves."
Spanish and Italian leaders are worried that their countries could soon - in effect - be shut out of international markets and forced to seek assistance.
Mrs Merkel has warned there is no "magic formula" to solve the crisis.
Several EU leaders want individual countries' debts guaranteed by the whole eurozone, for instance in the form of centrally issued eurobonds.
But Mrs Merkel told the German parliament on Wednesday that eurobonds were "the wrong way" and "counter-productive", adding: "We are working to breach the vicious circle of piling up debt and breaking [EU] rules."
She said to loud applause: "Joint liability can only happen when sufficient controls are in place."
Stronger competitiveness was the condition for sustained growth, the chancellor said.
Meanwhile, UK Prime Minister David Cameron said on his arrival at the summit that eurozone countries had some "hard decisions" to make.
When asked about plans for transferring more budgetary powers to the EU level, he said he shared "people's concerns about Brussels getting too much power".
European authorities have also unveiled proposals such as the creation of a European treasury, which would have powers over national budgets. The 10-year plan is designed to strengthen the eurozone and prevent future crises, but critics say it will not address current debt problems."
 
This is all window dressing.
 
 

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Thursday, June 28, 2012

Links 6/28/12

Flying out later today, so posts may be thin over the next 24 hours (several topics I’m keen to write about, but no guarantee I’ll get to them soon).
Issues in Scaling Civilization: The Monsters-from-the-Id Dilemma Civilization Systems (Chuck L)
Hey, Wait a Minute! The Chronicle (Lambert)
Dinosaurs Not Cold-Blooded In Theory That Flips Old View Bloomberg (Chuck L)
Glucose Deprivation Activates Feedback Loop That Kills Cancer Cells, Study Shows Science Daily (furzy mouse)
Campaigns to Track Voters with “Political Cookies” MIT Technology Review (Chuck L)
Parenting for the Elite Helaine Olen, Forbes
The Looting of China by the Kleptokapitalist Bourgeoisie Roaders Craig Tindale, Steve Keen’s Debtwatch
Chinese business to boost $US? MacroBusiness
EM growth doubts hit currencies Financial Times
Leaky pipes compound Delhi’s water crisis Tehelka (May S)
News Corp. Board Approves Split in Principle Wall Street Journal
Murdoch the magician is running out of tricks John Gapper, Financial Times
To Save the Euro, the Eurozone Governments Must Stand By Greece Marshall Auerback, New Economic Perspectives
Open letter to a good friend and colleague (who happened to become Greece’s Finance Minister yesterday…) Yanis Varoufakis
Merkel digs in heels over action on euro Financial Times
Top CIA Spy Accused of Being a Mafia Hitman Wired and Our Other Assassination Program: Mafia Hitmen Hidden from Congress Marcy Wheeler (Chuck L)
Brownian Motion and the Defense Budget Counterpunch (Chuck L)
Nukes Ready to Fly Clusterstock (furzy mouse)
Time to tighten the noose on Iran Robert McNally, Financial Times. Wow, I’ve seldom seen so much disinformation in a small package.
Strip club industry: More than Democrats, GOP conventioneers have been ‘our best customers’ Tampa Bay Times. So what’s your theory? Is it: 1. GOP members are richer and have more disposable income and therefore spend more often on indulgences like this? 2. Dems too acculturated by PCness to indulge as much as they’d like to? 3. Dems would rather just get laid and have less difficulty doing so (being less misogynistic than Rs)? Or do you have another theory? Note I am also assuming strip clubs are just strip clubs (in NYC, that’s the case, the bouncers will throw men out if they lay a hand on one of the performers).
HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan Inspects ‘Versailles’ Wall Street Journal (Paul Tioxon). OK, I am really old fashioned. I know this pales compared to stuff like the revolving door, but what is a Cabinet member doing using his office to promote a college buddy’s business venture?
Derivatives watchdog defends global reach Reuters (furzy mouse)
Stockton bankruptcy will make history; residents reeling Los Angeles Times (May S)
Stockton, California’s Bankruptcy Makes ‘Normal’ Cities Nervous Governing (May S)
This Week in Financial Not-Crime masaccio, Firedoglake (Carol B)
Beyond Spain and Cyprus, Europe’s Mightiest Banks Still Grapple With Crisis New York Times. Aargh! I caught a headline edit in progress! The original version was something like “Eurozone Riddled with Shaky Banks” to which I was going to comment: “It took this long for you to notice?” But as I clicked to the article proper, the had the current headline, and when I went back to the business section page, it had also changed there.
http://www.vegasinc.com/news/2012/jun/27/firm-named-nevada-robosigning-cases-countersues-ma/ Vegas Inc (Deontos)
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