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Business Day
Greek Debt Talks Are Tested by Fraying Ties With Germany
A demand by the Greek prime minister for wartime reparations from Germany intensified the rancor between the two nations.
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| ekathimerini.com , Wednesday March 11, 2015 (18:46) |
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false
Did Earth’s ‘Anthropocene’ Age of Man Begin With the Globalization of Disease in 1610?
Scientists propose that Earth’s “age of humans,” the Anthropocene, began with the spread of disease in the Americas.Business Day
This Health Account Can Add to a Nest Egg Too
An account intended to cover out-of-pocket medical expenses can also supplement retirement savings.Science
Fossil Tells of 520-Million-Year-Old Creature Like a Giant Lobster
The animal, six feet long, is one of the earliest such filter-feeders ever discovered.U.S.
Boston Marathon Bombing Jury Sees a Bullet-Pocked Message
Prosecutors showed jurors writing on the inside of a boat hull where Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, who is charged with 30 counts, hid before his capture.Business Day
Delight or Dread as Euro Falls
Businesspeople and tourists on both sides of the Atlantic are watching with considerable emotion as Europe’s main currency drops closer to parity with the dollar.
Watch that
plunging euro! Actually, it’s good news for Europe. European growth
numbers have been better lately, and the weak euro — which makes EZ
manufacturing and other tradables more competitive — is surely a large
part of the explanation. Not so good for Japan or the US. But how should
we think about this?
It’s more or less
standard international macro that with high capital mobility and
floating exchange rates, demand shocks in any one country or region will
be “shared” with other countries. If you have exceptionally strong
demand, your currency will rise, crimping your own growth while boosting
growth abroad; if you have exceptionally weak demand, you will get
partial compensation via a weaker currency that helps net exports. Such
effects can be offset with interest rate changes if you’re not at the
zero almost lower bound, but we are.
But how much of a demand shock is shared? I argued about a month ago
that it depends on the extent to which the shock is perceived as
temporary versus permanent. In an idealized world permanent shocks
should be fully shared — that is, permanently weak demand in Europe
should hurt the United States just as much as it does Europe.
So, can we say
anything about how the recent move in the euro fits into this story? One
way, I’d suggest, is to ask how much of the move can be explained by
changes in the real interest differential with the United States. US real 10-year rates are about the same as they were in the spring of 2014; German real rates at similar maturities
(which I use as the comparable safe asset) have fallen from about 0 to
minus 0.9. If people expected the euro/dollar rate to return to
long-term normal a decade from now, this would imply a 9 percent decline
right now.
What we actually see
is almost three times that move, suggesting that the main driver here is
the perception of permanent, or at any rate very long term European
weakness. And that’s a situation in which Europe’s weakness will be
largely shared with the rest of the world — Europe will have its fall
cushioned by trade surpluses, but the rest of us will be dragged down by
the counterpart deficits.
Now, this is not how
most analysts approach the problem. They make a forecast for the
exchange rate, then run this through some set of trade elasticities to
get the effects on trade and hence on GDP. Such estimates currently
indicate that the dollar will be a moderate-sized drag on US recovery,
but no more. What the economic logic says, however, is that if that’s
really true, the dollar will just keep heading higher until the drag
gets less moderate."
This drop is just the beginning.
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Opinion
Tougher Laws for Safer Streets
An essential part of a lasting solution to eliminating traffic deaths in New York City is a stricter web of laws.Business Day
Gender Gap in Education Cuts Both Ways
A report from the O.E.C.D. revives an old debate about girls’ math abilities, while it raises questions about boys’ overall educational achievements.Business Day
Treasury Urged to Scrutinize Foreign Real Estate Buyers for Money-Laundering Risk
Seventeen nonprofits sent a letter to the Treasury Department asking it to require the real estate industry to screen buyers for money-laundering risk.Sports
In Need of Help, Former U.N.C. Player Is Hesitant to Accept It
Ryan Hoffman, 40, who is homeless in Florida and difficult to find, has not embraced offers from old friends, his former university and the football community, frustrating his sister.
Business Day
Federal Agency Finds No Evidence That Trinity Industries Altered Design of Its Guardrails
The Federal Highway Administration said an analysis of 1,048 Trinity Industries guardrails across five states did not indicate they had been quietly changed to make them safer.N.Y. / Region
The Snow Is Melting! But What a Mess It Left Behind
It’s slush season in New York, the in-between time, and the dog poop, soda cans, cigarette butts and unrecognizable ooze formerly hidden beneath a white blanket are now visible as March muck.Sports
James Leads Cavaliers Past Mavericks
LeBron James had 27 points, making him one of four players with more than 20 for Cleveland, which has won 12 of its last 13 games against Western Conference opponents.Style
Cocktail Hours at the Plaza Hotel
The Palm Court has been a lot of things since 1907, but one thing it had never been was a bar, until now.Science
Gamma Rays May Be Clue on Dark Matter
Researchers say a newly discovered galaxy is emitting a surprising amount of gamma rays, which, if confirmed, may provide answers as to the mysterious dark matter that permeates the universe.false
Charting Clean-Energy Paths in New York and Beyond
Digging in on ways to move the clean-energy discussion from menus to outcomes.Opinion
Censoring a Film on Rape
The Indian government's ban on a documentary about a vicious rape and murder protects sexist attitudes.U.S.
86 Percent of Health Law Enrollees Receive Subsidies, White House Says
The Obama administration said Tuesday that 11.7 million Americans now have private health insurance through federal and state marketplaces, with 86 percent of them receiving financial assistance from the federal government to help pay premiums.World
Ebola Outbreak Could Be Ended by Summer, U.N. Says
Dr. Bruce Aylward said the crisis could be stopped completely, but only if funding continues and health workers can build trust in wary communities.
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