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N.Y. / Region
Patz Trial Jury Is Told Suspect Was Prone to Confessing
A psychologist serving as a defense witness testified that Pedro Hernandez, who has confessed to strangling 6-year-old Etan Patz in 1979, was susceptible to giving a false confession because of his low intelligence.World
A Cricket Match, With Politics in the Spotlight
Royal College and St. Thomas’ College, bastions of privilege that have groomed Sri Lanka’s leaders for nearly two centuries, have competed in cricket every March for 136 years.
"The
present government has promised to reconcile with the country’s Tamils,
who voted overwhelmingly for President Maithripala Sirisena, who, after defeating Mr. Rajapaksa, appointed Mr. Wickremesinghe.
The
two schools have diverse student bodies that include Sinhalese and
Tamils, and Buddhists, Hindus, Muslims and Christians. Almost everyone
interviewed during the match said their schoolmates and friends came
from all backgrounds. During almost a decade in power, Mr. Rajapaksa
cultivated Sinhalese and Buddhist nationalist groups that, in important
ways, rejected such inclusiveness.
“Everyone
who went to these schools grew up with a mix of ethnicities and
religions,” said Harsha de Silva, the deputy minister of policy planning
and economic affairs and a Royal graduate. “Those are the beliefs of
these schools, and we’re now bringing that back to the government. And
everyone here is celebrating that.”"
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U.S.
Pentagon Confirms Strike Killed Shabab Militant Leader in Somalia
The Defense Department said that Adan Garar, a senior member of the Shabab extremist group, had been killed in a drone strike on his vehicle last week.N.Y. / Region
Port Authority Agrees on the Need to Replace Its Bus Terminal, but Little Else
Replacing the 65-year-old terminal in Manhattan could cost at least $10 billion, and the project wouldn’t be finished before 2027. The short-term solution was to create a subcommittee to study the problem.Business Day
$10 Million Settlement in Target Data Breach Gets Preliminary Approval
The settlement of a class-action suit in federal court would provide $10 million to compensate victims of a 2013 online data theft that affected as many as 110 million people.Opinion
The Greece Issue Breeds Brinkmanship in the Eurozone
Discussions about a new loan agreement seem to be going even worse than expected.Sports
Cavaliers, Down Early, Rout Nets
J. R. Smith and Timofey Mozgov scored 17 points apiece, Kyrie Irving had 10 assists and Cleveland shook off a slow start to win its 14th straight home game, 117-92, over the Nets.U.S.
Louisiana Parish Fights Plan to Burn Tons of Propellant No One Wants
Webster Parish residents and others said they would not shy from a confrontation if the authorities proceed with a plan to openly burn an abandoned stockpile of M6 propellant.U.S.
McConnell Urges States to Help Thwart Obama’s ‘War on Coal’
Senator Mitch McConnell has begun an aggressive campaign to block President Obama’s climate agenda in statehouses and courtrooms, arenas far beyond his official authority.
Opinion
The House Budget Disaster
The Republicans’ road map to a “Stronger America” sticks to the tired themes of tax cuts and spending cuts, no matter the need or consequences.St. Augustine and Secular Stagnation
Brad DeLong reminds me of Simon Wren-Lewis’s excellent piece on Eurozone fiscal policy,
which emphasizes the extent to which European officials still don’t get
the basic macroeconomics of their position. I realized, however, that
recent discussion of secular stagnation — which seems like a realistic
possibility for Europe, even more so than the US — adds a twist to the
story, one that I’m not sure is widely appreciated.
The way to put both
the basic argument and the twist is, I think, in terms of the neutral
interest rate — the short-term interest rate that would produce full
employment. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, this rate was
clearly negative, which means — leaving the possibility of modestly
negative rates aside — that conventional monetary policy had reached its
limits. Most analyses, however, assume that this is a temporary
condition. So the expected time path of the neutral rate looks like
this:
What does this say
about fiscal policy? Well, fiscal austerity in the first part of this
figure, when the neutral rate is unattainable, is a terrible idea, even
if you have high public debt. Why? Because multipliers are large, so
that austerity has a large cost in lost output and unemployment; given
hysteresis, it may even make the long-run fiscal situation worse. The
appropriate policy during the era of the binding zero lower bound is
fiscal stimulus to achieve full employment, and worry about debt later.
I think I was the first to quote St. Augustine here: “Grant me chastity and continence, but not yet.”
Within the euro area,
as Simon correctly notes, there’s a question of allocation among
countries, which should be decided on the basis of competitive
adjustment, not debt burden: the average output gap should be zero, but
countries in need of a relative fall in prices should run below
potential, those in need of a relative rise run above potential, and
fiscal policy should make it so.
But the assumption
here is that the neutral rate will eventually rise, so that monetary
policy can take over the job of achieving full employment. What if we
have doubts about whether that will ever happen?
Well, that’s the
secular stagnation question. In fact, I’d define secular stagnation as a
situation in which the neutral interest rate is normally, persistently
below zero. And this raises a puzzle: If we worry about secular
stagnation, should we then say that St. Augustine no longer applies,
because better days are never coming?
No.
The way to deal with
secular stagnation, if we believe in our models, is to raise the
long-run neutral interest rate above zero. If we can do this via
structural reform and/or self-financing infrastructure investment, fine.
If not, raise the inflation target.
And how do we get to
the higher target inflation rate, when monetary policy is having trouble
getting traction? Fiscal policy! If you’re really worried about secular
stagnation, you should advocate a combination of a raised inflation
target and a burst of fiscal stimulus to help the central bank get
there.
So the St. Augustine
approach is right either way, with secular stagnation suggesting the
need to be even less chaste in the short run.
Sports
UConn Falls in First Round of N.I.T.
Shaquielle McKissic scored 22 points as Arizona State beat host Connecticut, the 2014 N.C.A.A. champion, in the first round of the N.I.T., 68-61.Health
Brain Swelling Tied to Deaths From Malaria
The finding in a new study will not change medical practice immediately, but it may lead to improved treatments, researchers said.U.S.
Letter Bound for White House Tests Positive for Cyanide
The Secret Service did not say whether the letter, screened at an off-site mailing center, had been addressed to President Obama or to someone else.N.Y. / Region
Robert Durst’s Papers Are Seized From a Hudson Valley Cellar
About 60 file boxes belonging to the murder suspect were removed from a friend’s house north of New York City.Opinion
Traitors to Their Class
These Horatio Algerians for the new Gilded Age are virtuous because they made it, or vice versa. And those who haven’t managed a similar leap are just weaklings.Opinion
Abetting Egypt’s Dictatorship
By supporting the country’s increasingly authoritarian government without question, the United States is pursuing a dangerous policy.Technology
Online ‘Swatting’ Becomes a Hazard for Popular Video Gamers and Police Responders
Pranksters are targeting Internet gamers, calling police departments to prompt a raid that they can watch in real time as it interrupts the game’s live webcast.Opinion
See No Junk Food, Buy No Junk Food
Stores that accept food stamps should give more space to produce.World
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