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The Terrible Ethical Calculus of Catastrophe
Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 14 minutes ago
Let us say you know a catastrophe is coming, and you cannot stop it and
thus save everyone What do you do? You start making choices about who to
save. Not just their lives, but their stuff and their power. Catastrophes
often lead to changes in societies, but sometimes they don’t. The 1929
stock market […]
Technic civilization will not survive a population collapse.
I do not like stoicism.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoicism
1
‘You Don’t Have to Be in Des Moines.’ Democrats Expand Primary Map, Spurred by Social Media.
Jonathan Martin at NYT > Politics - 13 minutes ago
With voters increasingly getting information online and from TV, candidates
are traveling to a wide range of states, viewing them as sound stages for
delivering their message.
Social media is a bad idea.
It forces tribalism.
Divide and rule is the game of kings.
2
Schedule for Week of June 2, 2019
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 hour ago
The key report scheduled for this week is the May employment report.
Other key reports include the ISM Manufacturing and non-manufacturing
surveys, Vehicle Sales and the Trade Deficit for April.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on Tuesday, and the Fed's Q1 Flow of Funds
report will be released on Thursday.
*----- Monday, June 3rd -----*
[image: ISM PMI]10:00 AM: *ISM Manufacturing Index* for May. The consensus
is for the ISM to be at 52.9, up from 52.8 in April.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The employment index was at 52.4% in April, and the new orders in... more »
CR is a better reporter than many.
3
The Paparazzi Staked Outside Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner’s D.C. Home
Shawn McCreesh at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago
Tabloid photographers are there when they leave for work, when they return
at night, when Kim Kardashian West or Steven Mnuchin drops by.
I want the names.
I can do without the pictures.
A review of the "show" interests.
4
As Trade War Spreads to Mexico, Companies Lose a Safe Harbor
Ben Casselman at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago
Trade tensions led American companies to shift operations to Mexico from
China. President Trump’s latest tariff threat has upended that strategy.
Subsidies attract capitalists.
They reduce risk.
5
Fact-Checking Elizabeth Warren on the Campaign Trail
Linda Qiu at NYT > Politics - 2 hours ago
The Massachusetts senator has emphasized her wealth tax on millionaires and
defended her past stance on marijuana. Here’s a fact check.
I will vote for Elizabeth Warren if I can.
Good policy tends to be dry.
I prefer dry to pointless drama.
6
On Politics: The Biggest Stories of the Week
Isabella Grullón Paz at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
It’s been a busy week in American politics. Here are some of the stories
you might have missed.
Facts are coming out.
7
A New Threat From Trump and Old Questions About Its Effectiveness
Peter Baker at NYT > Politics - 12 hours ago
Time and again, the president has engaged in a game of geopolitical chicken
with Mexico. But there was no more guarantee that the tactic will be any
more effective this time than in the past.
The golden door should not be closed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_Colossus
8
Justice Dept. Keeps Wiretaps Secret in Flynn Case, Rejecting Judge’s Order
Adam Goldman at NYT > Politics - 12 hours ago
The release of transcripts of calls between President Trump’s former
adviser and Russia’s ambassador would have provided a highly unusual
confirmation of a government secret.
These conversations are not covered by executive privelege.
The method of collection may be secret.
The content is not secret.
9
Trump to Kick Off His Re-election Campaign on June 18 in Orlando
Annie Karni and Maggie Haberman at NYT > Politics - 12 hours ago
The announcement will come a little over four years after he declared his
presidential bid at Trump Tower in Manhattan.
Trump has never stopped campaigning.
10
Floods and Trump’s Trade War Create an Uncertain Year for Farmers
Christopher Flavelle at NYT > Politics - 14 hours ago
Prices are rising and planting is far behind schedule as farmers face a
complex new calculus about what to plant—or whether to plant at all.
Every farmer knows the new risks this year.
11
"Mortgage Rates Drop Well Into the High 3's"
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 14 hours ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Drop Well Into
the High 3's
Mortgage rates were decisively lower today, following a massive market
movement on news of new tariffs to be imposed on Mexico. In general, trade
wars are economically negative. They hurt stocks and help bonds. When bonds
are improving, it means bond prices are rising and yields (another word for
"rates") are falling.
…
The average lender improved by the biggest amount of the past several weeks
with top tier scenarios now *easily seeing quotes of 3.875%*. [*30YR FIXED
- 3.875% - 4.0%*]
CR Note:... more »
Houses are not selling well.
12
Everett Raymond Kinstler, Prolific Portraitist, Dies at 92
Neil Genzlinger at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
He painted celebrities and politicians, including several presidents, and
has dozens of works in the National Portrait Gallery collection.
A portrait is an act of perception.
I do not want to do cosmetics.
13
Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in April, Lowest Since August 2007
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 16 hours ago
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate
decreased to 0.72% in April, from 0.74% in March. The serious delinquency
rate is down from 1.09% in April 2018.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due
or in foreclosure".
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since August
2007.
[image: Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent Rate]*Click on graph for larger
image*
*By vintage*, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (3% of portfolio), 2.64%
... more »
Lendes are cautious about short term risks.
14
Still Not on Recession Watch
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 18 hours ago
Several readers have asked me if I'm on "recession watch".
The answer is no.
First, a slow growth economy is not a recession. Since the Great Recession
ended in 2009, we've seen several mini-slowdowns and even a few random
quarters of negative GDP growth (but employment and other indicators stayed
positive).
Second, the tariffs on goods from China should not have a huge negative
impact on U.S. GDP, however the announced tariffs on goods from Mexico
appear more significant. I'm relying on the analysis of others to
estimate the size of the negative impact, but it doesn't appear la... more »
The national economy is feeling shakey.
Inflation risk is low to nonexistent.
15
Barr Escalates Criticism of Mueller Team and Defends Trump
Katie Benner at NYT > Politics - 18 hours ago
The attorney general blamed the special counsel’s office for unforeseen
delays in the release of the Mueller report that prompted him to summarize
its findings in a widely criticized letter.
Barr is owned by Trump.
16
The New Tariffs Against Mexico Signal the U.S. Isn’t a Reliable Negotiating Partner
Neil Irwin at NYT > Politics - 20 hours ago
Trump’s threat could have big consequences for future trade negotiations,
especially with allies.
Yes.
17
The Mueller Report Will Be Read Live This Weekend
Gabe Cohn at NYT > Politics - 20 hours ago
Taylor Mac, Oskar Eustis and Eisa Davis will be among those participating
at the event in Queens.
I noticed a copy at the supermarket.
18
Planting the Seeds of a Story With Farmers in the Midwest
Patricia Cohen at NYT > Politics - 20 hours ago
We talked about weather cycles, commodity prices, tariffs and Trump. Then
we drove off to the next field.
Farming is a high risk business.
19
Trump Administration Lifts Ethanol-Fuel Ban That Was Meant to Cut Smog
Coral Davenport at NYT > Politics - 20 hours ago
The change, sought by corn-belt farmers hurt by the China trade war, drew
criticism from environmentalists as well as energy companies.
A bad decision.
The use of fossil carbon must end.
20
How Trump’s Trade War Is Being Fought Around the World
Amie Tsang and Carlos Tejada at NYT > Politics - 20 hours ago
Mexico, China, Japan, Europe, Canada: The White House’s various conflicts
add up to a broad assault on a postwar effort to build economic ties around
the world.
Billions of people will die sooner.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusian_trap
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