1
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 hour ago
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM: The *initial weekly unemployment claims* report will be
released. The consensus is for 218 thousand initial claims, up from 216
thousand last week.
• At 8:30 AM: *Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019* (Third estimate).
The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.1% annualized in Q1, unchanged
from the second estimate of 3.1%.
• At 10:00 AM: *Pending Home Sales Index* for May. The consensus is for a
0.6% increase in the index.
• At 11:00 AM: the *Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey* for June. This is
the last of regional manufacturing surveys for June.
No numbers.
2
Matching Donations Finished
Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 1 hour ago
The $1,000 in matching donations has now been met. The fundraiser will
continue till Friday midnight, and any donations will be more than
appreciated, but they won’t be matched. A sincere thank you to the matching
donor, and to everyone who has donated. The 16 reviews and the booklet on
how to think will be […]
https://www.ianwelsh.net/the-problem-with-public-expertise/
People often tell stories.
Facts are optional.
3
U.S. Economic Conference Shows Few Signs of Enticing Palestinians
David M. Halbfinger at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
A White House conference aimed at showing the Palestinians the economic
benefits of the future Trump peace plan was shunned by most Palestinians.
The fighting in the Levant is about moral legitimacy.
Trump is using the wrong tool.
4
With Rare Comity, Senate Panel Advances Bills to Lower Health Costs
Abby Goodnough at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
The Senate health committee approved a suite of bills to address rising
health costs — including surprise medical bills and prescription drug
prices — and raise the legal smoking age.
This is a story told by a Republican.
The Congress does what it can.
5
Coral Davenport at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
By signing a clean-car deal with California, Canada inserted itself into
the high-profile battle over Mr. Trump’s weakening of rules to fight
climate change.
Mr. Trump is not a diplomat.
6
The Problem With Public Expertise
Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 3 hours ago
One of the talking points against the internet and social media is that it
has led to the death of expertise. The issue with this is that, when you
move away from the hard sciences and engineering, which still leaves vast
swathes of public policy, the experts aren’t much, if any, better than
laypeople. The […]
A story is just a story.
Editors are thought to be concerned with truth.
7
Senate Approves $4.6 Billion for Border With Fewer Restrictions
Emily Cochrane at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
The Republican-controlled Senate rejected a House border bill that reined
in Trump immigration policies, then passed its own version with few strings
attached.
No bill will become law.
Blame Trump and his Republicans.
8
Steve Bullock, Locked Out of the Debate, Sees a Path Forward in the 2020 Race
Reid J. Epstein at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Mr. Bullock, the governor of Montana, is trying to make the most of his
failure to qualify, holding televised events on both days of the debate.
The Democratic Campaign Committee is not mistaken.
9
Here Are the Lineups for the First 2020 Democratic Debates
Matt Stevens and Shane Goldmacher at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Elizabeth Warren will be in the center on Wednesday night, next to Beto
O’Rourke. Does positioning matter? Decide for yourself.
Noise.
10
Reddit Restricts Pro-Trump Forum Because of Threats
Niraj Chokshi and Neil Vigdor at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
The subreddit The_Donald was “quarantined” after users posted threats of
violence against police officers and politicians in Oregon, administrators
said.
Politics is serious business.
11
N.R.A. Shuts Down Production of NRATV, and Its No. 2 Official Resigns
Danny Hakim at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Good news.
12
Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Same YoY Price Gains in May as in April
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 4 hours ago
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released yesterday.
Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow
forecasts since they have been pretty close.
From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: April Case-Shiller Results and May
Forecast: Getting Back to Normal
The housing market has continued to normalize throughout the spring,
finding more balance between buyers and sellers and slowing to a pace of
growth much more in line with historic norms.
The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the
Case-Shiller National index to be at 3.5% in... more»
I hope to build.
13
Supreme Court Strikes Down Tennessee Liquor Law
Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
The law barred newcomers to the state from operating liquor stores. The
justices based their decision on the 21st Amendment, which ended
Prohibition.
The Supreme Court is showing unfortunate signs of rationality.
The insanity is intentional.
14
Why the Democratic Takeover in New Jersey Is More Civil War Than Progressive Revolution
Nick Corasaniti at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
A chasm between Gov. Philip D. Murphy and more moderate legislators could
lead to a government shutdown.
The Democratic party is another coalition in search of power.
It is better than the Other though far from perfect.
15
Supreme Court Limits Agency Power, a Goal of the Right
Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Conservatives, who have long complained that federal agencies are treated
too deferentially by the courts, said the majority did not go far enough.
Give lawyers a few days to digest the decisions.
Precident continues to rule.
16
Chemical Activity Barometer "Flat" in June
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 6 hours ago
Note: This appears to be a leading indicator for industrial production.
From the American Chemistry Council: Chemical Activity Barometer Is Flat In
June
The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB), a leading economic indicator created
by the American Chemistry Council (ACC), *was flat (0.0 percent change) in
June on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis*, following three monthly
gains. *On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, the barometer is up 0.3 percent*
(3MMA).
...
“The slowing economy and rising trade tensions have weighed on business
confidence and investment, resulting in mixed manuf... more »
The Trump administration is in trouble.
17
‘Talk Is Meaningless’: Readers Tell Us What They Want From the Debates
Sydney Ember at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Should the Democratic hopefuls focus on differentiating themselves from one
another or stir the imagination on who’s best to go against President Trump
in the general election?
The "debate" is half over.
Democrats should not debate with Democrats.
There can be no winner.
18
Trump’s Inauguration: The Money Behind the Most Expensive Presidential Debut in U.S. History
NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
Watch our new TV show from The New York Times on FX and Hulu.
No.
19
Trump Attacks Mueller, Repeating False Accusations
Eileen Sullivan at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
Mr. Trump repeated false accusations that the special counsel had destroyed
text messages by F.B.I. officials critical of the president.
No surprise.
20
Trump Criticizes Megan Rapinoe Over Refusal to Visit White House
Andrew Das and Victor Mather at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
The American soccer star had used an obscenity to dismiss the idea of a
White House visit if her team won the Women’s World Cup.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_do_not_like_thee,_Doctor_Fell
*********************************************************************************
1
Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Same YoY Price Gains in May as in April
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 minute ago
I will try to build.
2
Supreme Court Strikes Down Tennessee Liquor Law
Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
The interstate commerce clause controls.
3
Why the Democratic Takeover in New Jersey Is More Civil War Than Progressive Revolution
Nick Corasaniti at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
A chasm between Gov. Philip D. Murphy and more moderate legislators could
lead to a government shutdown.
Democrats are a coalition
4
Supreme Court Limits Agency Power, a Goal of the Right
Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Read with more care.
This Court usually does nothing.
5
Chemical Activity Barometer "Flat" in June
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 2 hours ago
The economy is in trouble.
6
6
‘Talk Is Meaningless’: Readers Tell Us What They Want From the Debates
Sydney Ember at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
Winners are not available yet.
7
Trump’s Inauguration: The Money Behind the Most Expensive Presidential Debut in U.S. History
NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
Watch our new TV show from The New York Times on FX and Hulu.
My mind is not for sale.
8
Trump Lashes Out After Mueller Agrees to Testify to Congress
Eileen Sullivan at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Typical Trump.
9
Trump Criticizes Megan Rapinoe Over Refusal to Visit White House
Andrew Das and Victor Mather at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
She is correct.
10
Bill Wehrum, an Architect of Trump Administration’s Pro-Coal Rules, to Leave E.P.A.
Lisa Friedman at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Some things stink more than others.
11
House Panel Subpoenas Kellyanne Conway on Ethics Law Violations
Catie Edmondson at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
12
‘My Plan B Is Maybe My Plan A’: Trump Threatens New Tariffs on China
Ana Swanson at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
There is no cure for stupid.
13
Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in April
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 5 hours ago
Emily Badger at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Progressives and conservatives share common goals on this issue, but the
details may be harder to agree on.
The rules are not the problem. Try economics.
15
First Democratic Debate: When Is It and What to Watch For
Shane Goldmacher and Katie Glueck at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Everything you need to know about Wednesday’s presidential primary debate
on NBC.
Let reporters tell you what they heard.
16
How 21 Democrats Answered Our Questions Before the Debates
Sydney Ember at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Which candidates believe the next president can stop climate change? How do
they see the future of health care, handguns, the Supreme Court and other
issues? Here's a quick look at their answers.
No change.
17
Where in N.Y.C. to Watch the Democratic Debates
Azi Paybarah at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
Wednesday: Two nights of debates means two nights of watch parties across
the city.
18
18
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Latest Weekly Survey
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 9 hours ago
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications increased 1.3 percent from one week earlier,
according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly
Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 21, 2019.
... The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week. *The
seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week
earlier*. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with
the previous week and was *9 percent higher than the same week one year ago*
.
...
“Markets last we... more »
19
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How 21 Democrats Answered Our Questions Before the Debates
Sydney Ember at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
Which candidates believe the next president can stop climate change? How do
they see the future of health care, handguns, the Supreme Court and other
issues? Here's a quick look at their answers.
20
20
It’s Not So Much the Debate. It’s the Days After the Debate.
Lynn Vavreck at NYT > Politics - 11 hours ago
Dramatic moments aren’t as important as the story lines that become set in
the aftermath.
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