1
Judge Rejects Government’s Request to Halt Emoluments Suit Against Trump
The Justice Department criticized the ruling, which allows evidence
gathering to begin on Friday. An appeal is likely.
Good.
2
What Will Democrats Look for in Debates? Someone They Can Imagine Onstage With Trump
Four years after Donald J. Trump blew up the expectations for how a
candidate is expected to behave in a debate, he will loom over the 20
Democrats who take the stage in Miami this week.
A boxer is not required.
3
Debates Mark the Starting Line for the Media’s Race Through 2020
Millions of Americans start paying attention once the candidates start
sparring on national TV, which puts a spotlight on both cringe-worthy
gaffes and successful zingers.
There should be nothing to debate among Democrats.
4
‘A 10-Person Debate Is a Mess’: Debate Advice for Democrats, From Republicans
Ted Cruz, Chris Christie and others from the crowded, chaotic 2016
Republican race offered tips to Democrats on surviving the debate stage.
A debate among Democrats is a trap at this stage.
"I am less a Trump than Though"
5
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in May
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in May
was 0.63%, down from 0.65% in April. Freddie's rate is down from 0.87% in
May 2018.
Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.
This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since November
2007.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due
or in foreclosure".
[image: Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent Rate]*Click on graph for larger
image*
I expect the delinquency rate to decline to a cycle bottom in the 0.4% to
0.6% range - so this i... more »
Panic in the suburbs
6
‘A Constant Game of Musical Chairs’ Amid Another Homeland Security Shake-Up
Mark Morgan, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement acting director will
lead Customs and Border Protection, administration officials said Tuesday.
Both the mothers and the #metoos are after Trump.
7
Toasting Sarah Huckabee Sanders. By the Press. Really.
“You’d better not say I was here,” said one White House reporter, who
attended the awkward drinks at a nearby steakhouse.
Free drinks always draw reporters.
Editors will insist on the story.
8
Pennsylvania Republican Party Chairman Resigns Amid Sexting Scandal
Val DiGiorgio was accused of sexual harassment by Irina Goldstein, who ran
unsuccessfully for the Philadelphia City Council.
I will hear about it. I don't vote there.
Nassau Democrats did not run a primary.
9
Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
CR Note: This is a repeat of earlier posts with updated graphs.
A few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the
seasonal pattern.
3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor
is based on several years of data - and the factor is now overstating the
seasonal change (second graph below).
4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price
movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index.
For in depth description of these issues, see ... more »
Yes. Surgery is better here.
10
Netanyahu Presses Superpowers to Remove Iranian Forces from Syria
At a meeting of American, Israeli and Russian national security advisers,
the competing regional interests were evident.
It is not likely that more troops will be committed.
11
House Democrats Move to Rein In Trump’s Immigration Crackdown
House Democrats pressed toward a vote on $4.5 billion in humanitarian aid
to address the plight of migrants at the southern border, as leaders moved
to quell a revolt.
Shock and rejection are growing.
staff is not quitting yet.
12
Fed Chair Powell Weighs Whether Cut Will Be Needed as Risks Loom
Mr. Powell underlined the Fed’s insulation from politics and kept the door
open for interest rate cuts at a time of trade uncertainty.
Powell is in a no win situation.
13
Trump Names Stephanie Grisham, Aide to First Lady, as Sarah Sanders’s Successor
Ms. Grisham joined the Trump campaign in 2015 and is one of the last
remaining aides from Mr. Trump’s campaign still serving in the White House.
The domestic politics will drag him into court.
14
Fed Chair Emphasizes Independence as Trump Attacks Persist
Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell underlined the central bank’s insulation from
politics and kept the door open for interest rate cuts as uncertainties
loom.
Powell will get inflation if things are as we are told.
A weaker dollar would be a good thing for trade.
Trump would fire him if he could.
15
Review: ‘The Investigation’ Makes the Mueller Report a Dark-Comic Indictment
The star-studded reading was surreal and unsubtle but somehow fitting for a
political era of tragedy-as-farce.
16
"A Conversation with Jerome H. Powell"
Live video for A Conversation with Jerome H. Powell
Speech by Chair Powell on the economic outlook and monetary policy review
The Fed is insulated from short-term political pressures—what is often
referred to as our "independence." Congress chose to insulate the Fed this
way because it had seen the damage that often arises when policy bends to
short-term political interests. Central banks in major democracies around
the world have similar independence.
And on policy:
Let me turn now from the longer-term issues that are the focus of the
review to the nearer-term outlook for the ec... more »
Yes.
17
Elizabeth Warren’s Latest Plan: Expanding Voting Access
Ms. Warren is calling for new national standards that would apply to
federal elections across the country.
The Republicans cannot compete.
18
Is Cory Booker Too Nice? (And Is That Bad?)
The New Jersey senator is a gifted orator with a glittering résumé, but he
often pulls back from political infighting. The debates offer him a chance
to break out.
Cory Booker is not a power in the Senate.
19
A few Comments on May New Home Sales
New home sales for May were reported at 626,000 on a seasonally adjusted
annual rate basis (SAAR). Sales for April were revised up slightly, and
sales for March were revised down.
Earlier: New Home Sales decreased to 626,000 Annual Rate in May.
[image: New Home Sales 2017 2018]*Click on graph for larger image.*
This graph shows new home sales for 2018 and 2019 by month (Seasonally
Adjusted Annual Rate).
Sales in May were down 3.7% year-over-year compared to May 2018.
Year-to-date (just through May), sales are up 4.0% compared to the same
period in 2018.
*This comparison was the mo... more »
I will build.
20
Canceling Student Loan Debt Doesn’t Make Problems Disappear
Plans from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren could have unintended
consequences.
I have little sympathy for banks.
Enough will survive.
The deflation may be a problem.
A bailout may be required.
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