Thursday, June 27, 2019

@19;51, , 6/27/19

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Friday: Personal Income & Outlays, Chicago PMI

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 hour ago
Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, *Personal Income and Outlays, May 2019*. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%. • At 9:45 AM, *Chicago Purchasing Managers Index* for June. • At 10:00 AM, *University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index* (Final for June). The consensus is for a reading of 97.9.
 
Bad sample.
 

Debating Tonight: Michael Bennet on Corruption in Washington

Julie Turkewitz at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Mr. Bennet, a senator from Colorado, has called for a lifetime ban on members of Congress becoming lobbyists, and other measures meant to reboot American democracy.
 
"First catch your rabbit"
 

Democratic Debate Ratings Exceed NBC’s Expectations, at 15.3 Million Viewers

Michael M. Grynbaum at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Even 16 months before Election Day, interest in the campaign is intense. Wednesday’s TV audience nearly equaled the record for a Democratic primary debate.
 
People are interested.
 

House Passes Election Security Package, With an Eye on Mitch McConnell

Nicholas Fandos at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
House Democrats are trying to push Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, to allow the consideration of election security bills in his own chamber.
 
I expect no change.
 

Debating Tonight: Marianne Williamson on Spiritual Healing

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Ms. Williamson, a self-help author running for president, hopes to end what she calls an ongoing “low-level emotional civil war.
 
Good idea in the wrong forum.
 
6  

Trump’s Latest Acting Pentagon Chief Faces Immediate Stress Test

Thomas Gibbons-Neff at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
Mark T. Esper, the third person to run the Defense Department under President Trump, visited NATO. A few days ago he was still Army secretary.
 
An empty suit.
 

Debating Tonight: Andrew Yang on Universal Basic Income

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
He’s an entrepreneur and former tech executive who wants to give Americans $12,000 a year. Here’s some background.
 
Just noise.    Been there.  Done that.
 
8   

Andrew Yang on Universal Basic Income

Matt Stevens at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
He’s an entrepreneur and former tech executive who wants to give Americans $12,000 a year. Here’s some background.
 
"Democracy is a great idea.  It should be tried."
 

Julián Castro Is Crowned the Winner on Telemundo’s First Debate Night

Jennifer Medina at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
The network simulcast the Democratic debate in Spanish, and had interpreters prepare for months to be able to translate “Medicare for all” in real time.
 
Puerto Rico can't vote in PR
 
10 

U.S. and China Angle for Trade Truce, but Both Insist the Other Will Back Down

Ana Swanson and Keith Bradsher at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
As President Trump prepares for a pivotal meeting with President Xi Jinping of China, both countries say they do not need to compromise to bring a bruising trade war to an end.
 
No progress.
 
11 

The Lessons of Washington State’s Watered Down ‘Public Option’

Sarah Kliff at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
A big health care experiment for Democrats shows how fiercely doctors and hospitals will fight.
 
Give them more money and no COLA.
 
12 

Manafort Pleads Not Guilty to N.Y. Charges Designed to Thwart a Trump Pardon

Sharon Otterman at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
President Trump’s former campaign chairman is serving federal prison time. He was in court on Thursday to face new fraud charges in New York.
 
Manafort is not a compleat idiot.
 
13 

Michigan Republicans Tune In to Democratic Debate. No Conversions Reported.

Trip Gabriel at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Scouting out the opposition, Republicans viewing Wednesday’s debate were impressed by Tulsi Gabbard and Elizabeth Warren and quick to defend President Trump.
 
Michigan is Gerrymandered. 
 
14 

Rex Tillerson Says He Was Cut Out of Decisions by Kushner and Bannon

Edward Wong and Sharon LaFraniere at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
The former secretary of state told Congress that the top White House aides dealt with foreign leaders without his knowledge.
 
It looks Right. 
 
15 

House Passes Senate Border Bill in Striking Defeat for Pelosi

Julie Hirschfeld Davis and Emily Cochrane at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Speaker Nancy Pelosi, in a stinging defeat after a show of Democratic disunity, let a Senate border spending bill pass the House without controls that liberals had demanded.
 
Watch the amendments.
 
16 

What You Need to Know About the Census Citizenship Question

Timothy Williams at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
An attack on immigrants or a need to protect minority voters? With a deadline to print 2020 forms looming, the Supreme Court left the question undecided.
 
The question is struck down.
 
17 

Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate unchanged in Q2 at 4.7%

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 6 hours ago
Reis reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 4.7% in Q2 2019, unchanged from 4.7% in Q1, and unchanged from 4.7% in Q2 2018. The vacancy rate peaked at 8.0% at the end of 2009, and bottomed at 4.1% in 2016. From chief economist Victor Calanog at Reis: *The apartment vacancy rate was flat in the quarter at 4.7%* - a zero net change from a year ago. After climbing 60 basis points from a low of 4.1% in Q3 2016, the vacancy rate has remained near 4.7% since the first quarter of 2018. The national average asking rent increased 1.2% in the second quarter while effective rent, wh... more » 
 
Rents are high.
 
18 

Supreme Court Leaves Census Question on Citizenship in Doubt

Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
In a setback for the Trump administration, the court said the reason for adding the question was inadequate. Government experts said adding the question could suppress participation among immigrants.
 
No.
 
19 

Democrats Diverge on Economy and Immigration in First Debate

Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Elizabeth Warren set the tone for the party’s progressive wing, but others among the 10 candidates were more cautious, producing clashes along ideological lines.
 
The Democratic party is a coalition.
 
20 

At the First Debate, an Audio Snarl and a Traffic Jam

James Poniewozik at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
The Democrats’ prime-time debut was like a big ensemble TV pilot, with a lot of characters to manage.
 
It was the wrong form.
 
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