1
House Members Introduce Bipartisan Bill to Thwart Robocalls
Neil Vigdor at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
The measure would require phone carriers to offer screening technology to
customers at no additional cost.
How would it know?
I can think of ways.
Most would not be good.
2
Inside Our 2020 Candidate Video Project
Lisa Lerer at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
In the On Politics newsletter: Behind the scenes of the new Times video
project interviewing (nearly) the entire 2020 field.
All but one candidate must ultimately fail.
The electorate must pick which one wins.
The video project helps that process.
3
All but one candidate must ultimately fail.
The electorate must pick which one wins.
The video project helps that process.
3
Joe Biden Called Cory Booker. But Apologize? It’s Not the Biden Way.
Lisa Lerer and Reid J. Epstein at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
President Trump’s refusal to admit mistakes may have shifted the gaffe
gauge in politics as well as some Democrats’ expectations about their own
candidates.
don't vote for Biden.
4
don't vote for Biden.
4
After Segregationists Remarks, Biden’s Support From Black Voters May Face Stress Test
Shane Goldmacher at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
Mr. Biden is facing intense backlash from primary rivals and questions
about whether he is politically sensitive to the concerns of the modern
Democratic Party.
At least.
5
At least.
5
Sex Harassment Laws Toughened in New York: ‘Finally, This Is Happening’
Vivian Wang at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
The #MeToo movement, along with advocacy by former staffers who reported
harassment, helped usher in changes in Albany.
A democrat majority in the legislature is different.
6
A democrat majority in the legislature is different.
6
Another Biden Problem
Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 3 hours ago
Matt Stoller, who was a Congressional aide, wrote an important article on
Biden back in April. … Biden is a bad candidate. Obama was exceptionally
disciplined, and Biden is not… …Basically, Biden combined two traits that
work against each other. He’s lazy. Staffers can deal with that, if the
lazy person is willing to delegate. […]
True.
7
True.
7
Friday: Existing Home Sales
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 3 hours ago
Friday:
• At 10:00 AM, *Existing Home Sales* for May from the National Association
of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.29 million SAAR, up from 5.19
million.
Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 5.40
million SAAR for May.
Guesses.
8
Guesses.
8
What We Know About Iran Shooting Down a U.S. Drone
Helene Cooper at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
The two countries disagree about where the drone was shot down: over
international waters or in Iranian airspace.
Trivial.
9
Trivial.
9
‘The Minutes,’ by Tracy Letts, Is Coming to Broadway
Michael Paulson at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
The politically themed comedy, about a fractious municipal government
meeting, will open in 2020.
OK
10
OK
10
Roy Moore to Run for Alabama Senate Seat
Alan Blinder at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
The former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court wants a rematch with
Doug Jones, who defeated him in a special election in 2017. Many
Republicans are hostile to his plans.
A waste of everyones time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inherit_the_Wind_(play)#Title
11
A waste of everyones time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inherit_the_Wind_(play)#Title
11
Supreme Court Sustains Executive Power in Sex Offender Case
Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
The decision, from an eight-member court, suggested that the major
constitutional issue it considered may soon return to the court.
ducking the issue.
12
ducking the issue.
12
Key Data Releases Before Next FOMC Meeting
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 8 hours ago
The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for July
30th and 31st. Depending on the data - and other events - the committee
might cut the Fed Funds rate at the July meeting.
Here are some key economic releases to watch:
• *June Employment report* scheduled for July 5th at 8:30 AM.
• *Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter* 2019 (advance estimate), and annual
update, July 26th at 8:30 AM.
And on inflation:
• *May Personal Income and Outlays*, June 28th at 8:30 AM
• *June Personal Income and Outlays*, July 30th at 8:30 AM
• *June Consumer Price Index*, July 11th ... more »
Trump is neither damned or saved.
13
Trump is neither damned or saved.
13
Senate Votes to Block Trump’s Arms Sales to Gulf Nations in Bipartisan Rebuke
Catie Edmondson at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
The vote illustrated the deep divide between lawmakers and the
administration over Saudi Arabia and the president’s attempts to circumvent
Congress on national security decisions.
Better but less than good.
14
Better but less than good.
14
What We Know About Iran Shooting Down a U.S. Drone
Helene Cooper at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
The two countries disagree about where the drone was shot down: over
international waters or in Iranian airspace.
Trivial.
15
Trivial.
15
N.R.A. Suspends Second-in-Command, Implicating Him in Coup Attempt
Danny Hakim at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
The National Rifle Association’s continuing civil war led to a schism
between the top two officials at the gun organization.
The right to bear arms should be limited.
16
The right to bear arms should be limited.
16
Supreme Court Allows 40-Foot Peace Cross on State Property
Adam Liptak at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
Challengers argued that the cross in suburban Maryland sent a message of
government favoritism toward Christianity.
Another bad precident.
17
Another bad precident.
17
Erdogan Says He Will Meet With Trump to Resolve Weapons Disagreement
Carlotta Gall at NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
The Turkish president, holding a rare meeting with international
journalists, also said that he would accept the results of Istanbul’s
mayoral election.
Erdogan, likeTrum, is always wrong.
18
Erdogan, likeTrum, is always wrong.
18
Black Knight: Another Record Low for Mortgage Delinquencies in May
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 11 hours ago
From Black Knight: Black Knight’s First Look: Continued Improvement Pushes
Mortgage Delinquencies to New Record Low in May; Prepayment Activity
Doubles Over Past Four Months
• The national delinquency rate has fallen for the third consecutive month,
hitting 3.36% in May, its lowest level since Black Knight began reporting
the metric in January 2000
• Both early-stage and serious delinquencies fell from April, as did loans
in active foreclosure, bringing total non-current inventory – all loans
past due, including foreclosures – to its lowest point since early 2005
• Foreclosure star... more »
Ignore.
19
Ignore.
19
Philly Fed Mfg "Manufacturing conditions in the region weakened" in June
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 12 hours ago
From the Philly Fed: June 2019 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
Manufacturing conditions in the region weakened this month, according to
firms responding to the June Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The
current activity index declined to a reading just above zero this month.
The survey’s indexes for new orders, shipments, and employment remained
positive but also declined from their May readings. Most of the survey’s
future activity indexes improved but continue to reflect muted optimism for
the remainder of the year.
*The diffusion index for current general activity dec... more »
Yes.
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Yes.
20
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 216,000
Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 12 hours ago
The DOL reported:
In the week ending June 15, the advance figure for *seasonally adjusted
initial claims was 216,000*, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's
unrevised level of 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,750, an
increase of 1,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 217,750.
emphasis added
The previous week was unrevised.
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since
1971.
*Click on graph for larger image.*
The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week
average of weekly unemployment claims inc... more »
The measurement method matters.
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The measurement method matters.
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