http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/01/09/economic-fiscal-situation-on-the-cliff-edge-say-top-opinion-leaders/
"
“Before the weekend, the were 600 billion bucks parked at the ECB by paranoid bankers. The entire EU’s business liquidity is now f**ked, and I can’t see how Draghi can do this thing on his own for much longer. Berlin has gone kinda quiet, probably preparing for [today's] Sarkozy meet-up. But they’re just not doing anything. We must now be very close to a major event. I guess we’re pretty damn close to the end here”.
One knows precisely what he means: Mario Monti was in the media again this morning, affirming that the eurozone debacle isn’t really a currency crisis at all…a continuation of the line begun by Leatherwoman last week. One observer of the ClubMed situation as a whole told me:
“The Greek thing is on a knife-edge. It’s moved on from poker to being craps, where everybody needs the last throw to make it work. The lenders don’t believe the Greeks, and vice versa. But this time, I really do think there’s very little cash left in the Athens money-box.” Another senior sovereign strategist said:
“I think you’re right about the banks’ [liquidity] being critical. But look at all the sovereign EU members now looking sick. It could happen first in Spain, Greece, Italy or France. It could stem from the ECB suddenly fighting on three fronts at once. It could begin with a Parisian bank blowing over if the Greek news gets any worse. The person in the street has no idea just how hopeless this is. There may be the odd market rally – but look at the volumes. This isn’t investor confidence, it’s dumb-f**k money dribbling in after some f**k-witted advice from an advisor.”
Oh dear. Armageddon stuff. The light volumes point (expanded by the Wall St Journal this morning) is another sign that, I find, feels like the quiet before the whirlwind. Some of the late 2011 bullish runs really did have some heavy-hitting smart money piling in – albeit for cynical reasons of its own. Now even that feels too risky to the pros. Somewhere over the weekend (I now can’t recall where) I read an historically potty piece saying there were big stock market gains for those with the courage to get in there now. It struck me as like telling a kamikaze pilot that if he just steered straight for the carrier’s main fuel dump, he could sink the whole kit and caboodle at a stroke. There’s a very good piece at Zero Hedge further confirming this view, by the way. And a former useful Big Apple source on the Strauss-Kahn saga had this to say:
“I did see your piece on the Labor stats, and it’s a view widely shared over here. There is no solid recovery on the way: the smart money just doesn’t believe it. But the scarey thing is that Middle America just might…for the time being”.
Finally, it is indeed very quiet in Germany. The Bankfurt Maulwurf has gone to ground, and my Brussels mole was away for the weekend asking not to be disturbed. Perhaps he’s building a bunker in Switzerland."
Anything but Keynes.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/09/germans-and-aliens/Germans and Aliens
The Times has an article today about Germany’s faith in austerity as the answer to depression. It’s sad reading for anyone hoping that Europe will get its act together; it’s especially galling that Germans remain so committed to belief in expansionary austerity, despite the thorough empirical debunking the notion has been given over the past year and a half (see, e.g., this IMF working paper (pdf)).
But the Germans believe that their own experience shows that austerity works: they went through some tough times a decade ago, but they tightened their belts, and all was well in the end.
Not that it will do any good, but it’s worth pointing out that Germany’s experience can only be generalized if we find some space aliens to trade with, fast.
Why? Because the key to German economic affairs this past decade has been a truly massive shift from current account deficit to surplus:
Now, other countries within Europe could emulate Germany’s past if Germany herself were willing to let its current account surplus vanish. But it isn’t, of course. So the German demand is that everyone run a current account surplus, just like they do — something that would only be possible if we can find someone or something else to buy our exports.
It remains remarkable to see with how little wisdom the world is governed."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/
Swiss central bank chief resigns
The chairman of the Swiss National Bank, Philipp Hildebrand, resigns in the wake of allegations of currency trades made by his wife.
A deal with Greek bondholders must come soon for Greece to receive a vital second bailout, Germany's Chancellor Merkel says.
But the Germans believe that their own experience shows that austerity works: they went through some tough times a decade ago, but they tightened their belts, and all was well in the end.
Not that it will do any good, but it’s worth pointing out that Germany’s experience can only be generalized if we find some space aliens to trade with, fast.
Why? Because the key to German economic affairs this past decade has been a truly massive shift from current account deficit to surplus:
It remains remarkable to see with how little wisdom the world is governed."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/
Swiss central bank chief resigns
The chairman of the Swiss National Bank, Philipp Hildebrand, resigns in the wake of allegations of currency trades made by his wife. 
Merkel: Greece debt deal urgent
A deal with Greek bondholders must come soon for Greece to receive a vital second bailout, Germany's Chancellor Merkel says. Investors seeking havens for cash
Investors pay negative yields in the latest German bond auction - effectively paying Germany for the privilege of lending to it - as investors look for safety.
 London ParisFrankfurtWall StreetTokyo | | | |
| | | |
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Financial crisis latest news
Debt crisis: live
09 Jan 2012
| 285 Comments Britain should sign up to vetoed eurozone treaty, says Nick Clegg
09 Jan 2012
| 2 Comments Merkel, Sarkozy push for Tobin tax despite German split
09 Jan 2012
| Comment UK jobs lost as SeaFrance goes into liquidation
09 Jan 2012
| 5 Comments David Cameron: German power threatens future of euro
09 Jan 2012
Lloyds' chief back at work
Top stories: Berlin summit; HMV, Morrisons and bank boss returns09 Jan 2012
| Comment Cameron risks anger over more funds for IMF
David Cameron has left open the door to Britain giving more money to the International Monetary Fund, the Financial Times reported, risking a clash with eurosceptic Conservatives.09 Jan 2012
| 4 Comments RBS executive to receive £4m bonus
An RBS executive is in line for a £4m bonus despite the lender's share price falling more than 40pc since July, creating a politically awkward situation for David Cameron who has promised to give shareholders the power to stop top staff being rewarded for failure.09 Jan 2012
| 5 Comments Directors' pay is not the Government's business
Telegraph View: There is a danger that attempts to assuage public concerns about City rewards will end up discouraging enterprise.09 Jan 2012
| 160 Comments Merkel and Sarkozy meet to discuss growth
The German and French leaders will meet today to discuss ways to boost growth in eurozone states struggling to overcome the sovereign debt crisis and finalise a deal to increase fiscal coordination within the currency union.09 Jan 2012
| 35 Comments Tobin tax could leave EU with €116bn hole
Plans to levy a tax on financial transactions across Europe could leave a €116bn (£95bn) hole in the region's public finances, a report Ernst & Young warns.09 Jan 2012
| 90 Comments You have built a virtual Rube Goldberg.
2222222222222222222
.
No comments:
Post a Comment