http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2012/01/25/greek-debt-talks-private-creditors-pow-wow-in-paris-as-clubmed-starts-to-melt-down/
This is not good. I will check the reports later.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Germany Loses Its Grip
By Delusional Economics, who is horrified at the state of economic commentary in Australia and is determined to cleanse the daily flow of vested interests propaganda to produce a balanced counterpoint. Cross posted from http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/01/greece-lines-up-portugal/“>MacroBusiness.
And so we roll on…
One of the things that amazes me about the European “crisis” is how symptoms of the underlying problems of the macro-economic system that is the Eurozone get confused with the actual problem. Let’s take the current situation in Greece for example:
So as of yesterday, the EU finance ministers , the EC and the IMF joined forces to demand that the Greek creditors take a larger hit on the countries debt forgiveness. The Institute of International Finance, that represents the creditors, said that its last offer is a 4% coupon on new bonds issued after the deal. The EU wants a better deal because the target is to get Greece down to 120% debt to GDP by 2020 and a lower rate is supposedly required to make that happen. The main reason there is so much argy-bargy about the rate is because every time someone looks at the state of the Greek economy it is worse. So basically, the EU is demanding more from creditors because their own policies have failed to turn the economy around. What makes this particular situation most interesting is that Europe has spent 2 years and literally hundreds of billions of dollars trying to avoid a Greek default, yet now they are making demands that have the potential to push the country in exactly that direction.
If a new deal cannot be struck that both sides can agree on then Greece may have no choice but pursue collective action clauses on outstanding bonds written under Greek law to force private creditors to take a deal. Talks are on-going.
However, although this particular problem is now the focus, it is just one symptom of the actual problem. That problem was highlighted overnight with the European flash PMI’s.Germany
once again outperformed the rest of Europe, France treaded water, admittedly with its head held a little higher, while the periphery of Europe slowly drifts away. The latest Euro PMI was a little better than expected, in some part due to the ECB’s actions over the last month or so no doubt, put the forward looking indicators suggest more weakness to come and I expect the divide to grow as Europe slows further. As I have stated previously that the German data is a double edged sword because, although it is good for Germany that its economy is powering, it is a big negative for the rest of Europe because one of the major issues that brought on the crisis in the first place was the competitiveness imbalance of nations under the single currency.
What we are now seeing in Greece, and will continue to, is a symptom of this underlying problem. But Greece is not alone, it is becoming obvious that Portugal has got itself into a similar position:
With Spain also struggling and Italy under increasing pressure, the continuation of contagion appears to be taking its toll on the politics of Europe with Germany’s ability to control the situation diminishing. As Spiegel reports:
Is the failure of austerity-centric policy finally taking its toll on Germany’s ability to steer Europe’s response to the financial crisis? This would certainly explain why Mario Monti seems so sure that his country will be receiving the fiscal and monetary backstops. The outcomes from next week’s EU summit will provide more clues.
And so we roll on…
One of the things that amazes me about the European “crisis” is how symptoms of the underlying problems of the macro-economic system that is the Eurozone get confused with the actual problem. Let’s take the current situation in Greece for example:
So as of yesterday, the EU finance ministers , the EC and the IMF joined forces to demand that the Greek creditors take a larger hit on the countries debt forgiveness. The Institute of International Finance, that represents the creditors, said that its last offer is a 4% coupon on new bonds issued after the deal. The EU wants a better deal because the target is to get Greece down to 120% debt to GDP by 2020 and a lower rate is supposedly required to make that happen. The main reason there is so much argy-bargy about the rate is because every time someone looks at the state of the Greek economy it is worse. So basically, the EU is demanding more from creditors because their own policies have failed to turn the economy around. What makes this particular situation most interesting is that Europe has spent 2 years and literally hundreds of billions of dollars trying to avoid a Greek default, yet now they are making demands that have the potential to push the country in exactly that direction.
If a new deal cannot be struck that both sides can agree on then Greece may have no choice but pursue collective action clauses on outstanding bonds written under Greek law to force private creditors to take a deal. Talks are on-going.
However, although this particular problem is now the focus, it is just one symptom of the actual problem. That problem was highlighted overnight with the European flash PMI’s.
What we are now seeing in Greece, and will continue to, is a symptom of this underlying problem. But Greece is not alone, it is becoming obvious that Portugal has got itself into a similar position:
The cost of insuring Portugal’s debt against default was at record highs Tuesday and its bond yields remained at elevated levels amid concerns that a possible second bailout for the country in 2013 would include a Greek-model haircut for private-sector bondholders.So now even if Greece manages a deal to write-off some of its debt the markets will quickly turn their eyes to Portugal who will no doubt require a second bail out, but increasingly a debt restructure as well.
Worries have mounted among experts that Portugal won’t be able to return to markets for funding next year, forcing it to request a second bailout package.
Portugal’s five-year credit-default swap—a derivative that functions like a default insurance contract for debt—pushed above its record closing level in the continuation of the trend that started last week after the Standard & Poor’s Corp. downgrade to “junk” status.
With Spain also struggling and Italy under increasing pressure, the continuation of contagion appears to be taking its toll on the politics of Europe with Germany’s ability to control the situation diminishing. As Spiegel reports:
Berlin has been unflinching it its efforts to both increase fiscal discipline in the euro zone and to avoid throwing more money at the European debt crisis. Increasingly, though, Germany’s EU partners are unwilling to play along. Chancellor Merkel now finds herself confronted with powerful opponentsGermany also appears to be losing support from even its strongest allies. Last week the Dutch central banker Klaas Knot gave an interview blaming Germany for the failure of the EFSF in which he stated:
….
A large alliance of the finance ministers, heads of government and central bankers from almost all of the 17 euro-zone member states has been calling for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to be enlarged — significantly. The permanent euro backstop fund, which will go into effect this year and will ultimately replace the temporary European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), needs to encompass fully €1 trillion ($1.3 billion) instead of the planned €500 billion, Italian government officials have told their German counterparts.
At the same time, widespread resistance in Brussels to German plans for a new system of financial regulation within the EU is becoming more assertive. Merkel’s proposal for all EU member states to pass balanced budget initiatives — known in Germany as a “debt brake” — has been torpedoed as has the idea to allow the European Commission to bring countries that stubbornly violate deficit rules before the European Court of Justice.
…
Indeed, the balance of power in Europe has shifted. As long as Italy was ruled by a clown like Silvio Berlusconi, it hardly had any voice in efforts to save the euro. But ever since Monti, a respected financial expert, took over, the front of Merkel opponents is stronger than ever, all the more so because quite a few experts endorse Monti’s position.
….
Sarkozy is now getting the support of prominent economists from around the world. Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IWF) is calling for more money for the euro backstop fund as is Mario Draghi, the president of the European CentralBank (ECB), who has been in regular contact with his compatriot Monti. In a Monday appearance in Berlin, Lagarde said “we need a bigger firewall.”
The most important obstacle lies in Germany, not in the Netherlands, we haven’t moved in the right direction and it’s also clear that measures needed are happening too slowly and are too limited in size.To add to that, Luxembourg’s new foreign minister gave an interview with German media yesterday in which he called the fiscal compact a ‘waste of time and energy’.
Is the failure of austerity-centric policy finally taking its toll on Germany’s ability to steer Europe’s response to the financial crisis? This would certainly explain why Mario Monti seems so sure that his country will be receiving the fiscal and monetary backstops. The outcomes from next week’s EU summit will provide more clues.
Links 1/25/12
Your humble blogger is a bit under the weather still and separately very bummed by the Schneiderman news. Sone of my correspondents and I had noticed him taking a back seat to other AGs in launching mortgage-related cases and had been concerned it was a bad sign, but I didn’t want to go out guns a blazing in the absence of evidence. But this looks much worse than anything I could have imagined.
Dolphins are multilingual! Scientists record mammals talking ‘whale’… in their sleep Daily Mail (hat tip reader May S)
Native dog breeds risk extinction BBC
Flower power Economist (hat tip Joe Costello)
Australia: US Copyright Colony or Just a Good Friend? Torrent Freak
Chinese soothsayer sees economic storms ahead Financial Times. I believe Western astrologers also see 2012 as a year of revolution.
On building debt Michael Pettis
Companies paid £1,800 to meet ministers at networking events Guardian (hat tip Buzz Potamkin)
EU ratchets up pressure with Greek default threat Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph
European Central Bank Moves to Avoid Loss on Greek Bonds NewYork Times. This strikes me as hilarious, maybe because now is awfully late to get worried about this sort of thing. Now in fact the “private” bondholders have been asked to take deeper haircuts all along, but the Times headline (and even to a degree the story) somehow treats this as news.
MAX BLUMENTHAL: WASHINGTON POST SCRUBS QUOTE SMEARING IRAN WAR CRITICS, BUT EX-CAMP GUARD JEFFREY GOLDBERG RUNS WITH IT ANYWAY eXiled
Obama State Of The Union Speech: Labor Leaders And Economists Unimpressed With Jobs Proposals Huffington Post
Obama Urges Tougher Laws on Financial Fraud New YorkTimes . Wow, even the Grey Lady is skeptical.
Mitt Romney’s 2009 Tax Burden Likely Even Lower Than 2010, Experts Say Huffington Post. Hah, I thought the same thing. Who has their 2011 taxes filed by what, the third week of January?
Police Raid Occupy Lexington Scarecrow, Firedoglake
Has Ex Goldman Sachs Staff turned Democrat Campaigner Infiltrated Occupy? News Junkie (hat tip reader food)
Mic check! Occupy Wall Street offers a rebuttal to State of the Union SFGate (hat tip reader Martha R)
New Rules for Bond Analysts Global Economic Intersection
CalPERS earns 1.1% on investments in 2011 LA Times (hat tip reader furzy mouse)
Billionaires at Davos Bemoan Inequalities Bloomberg. Talk is cheap.
Antidote du jour. What I should be doing:
Dolphins are multilingual! Scientists record mammals talking ‘whale’… in their sleep Daily Mail (hat tip reader May S)
Native dog breeds risk extinction BBC
Flower power Economist (hat tip Joe Costello)
Australia: US Copyright Colony or Just a Good Friend? Torrent Freak
Chinese soothsayer sees economic storms ahead Financial Times. I believe Western astrologers also see 2012 as a year of revolution.
On building debt Michael Pettis
Companies paid £1,800 to meet ministers at networking events Guardian (hat tip Buzz Potamkin)
EU ratchets up pressure with Greek default threat Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph
European Central Bank Moves to Avoid Loss on Greek Bonds New
MAX BLUMENTHAL: WASHINGTON POST SCRUBS QUOTE SMEARING IRAN WAR CRITICS, BUT EX-CAMP GUARD JEFFREY GOLDBERG RUNS WITH IT ANYWAY eXiled
Obama State Of The Union Speech: Labor Leaders And Economists Unimpressed With Jobs Proposals Huffington Post
Obama Urges Tougher Laws on Financial Fraud New York
Mitt Romney’s 2009 Tax Burden Likely Even Lower Than 2010, Experts Say Huffington Post. Hah, I thought the same thing. Who has their 2011 taxes filed by what, the third week of January?
Police Raid Occupy Lexington Scarecrow, Firedoglake
Has Ex Goldman Sachs Staff turned Democrat Campaigner Infiltrated Occupy? News Junkie (hat tip reader food)
Mic check! Occupy Wall Street offers a rebuttal to State of the Union SFGate (hat tip reader Martha R)
New Rules for Bond Analysts Global Economic Intersection
CalPERS earns 1.1% on investments in 2011 LA Times (hat tip reader furzy mouse)
Billionaires at Davos Bemoan Inequalities Bloomberg. Talk is cheap.
Antidote du jour. What I should be doing:
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sunarko6521@yahoo.com
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N.Y. / Region
CITY OF ANGLES The street grid gave developers and, later, tourists order, access and predictability. It has proved surprisingly resilient, accommodating motor vehicles and Central Park.Communities in the grid have been trying to destroy that accessibility by giving bits of the grid human names.
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Michelle Cervone
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Lone Star
“Third day witl the new BBQ grill - http://nyti.ms/lCimlZ”Texas is good for a break.Lots of beach, lots of beef, not much fresh water. Horses.Oil and gas run the place. East is very different from west.It is old south. Do not be black in Texas.They have problems with Mexico.I can cook this way. Hickory or mesquite are woods of choice. Apple gives good results. Oak is ok and maple is not my favorite.
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Curried Tofu
The sauce is dead easy.
suzanTofu I have problems with.
I think a gas free tofu can be made. I will study on it.
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Suzan-Lori Parks on 'Porgy and Bess'
He may. I do not. I have potential. -
The iPhone Economy
This is why New York will not soon be a center of material innovation.
It has priced out the infrastructure. -
Elia Porcellato
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N.Y. / Region
CITY OF ANGLES The street grid gave developers and, later, tourists order, access and predictability. It has proved surprisingly resilient, accommodating motor vehicles and Central Park.
The grid does the job.People hate it and act against it as they can.
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An Interview With Donatella Versace
There is not much left of her.
She does 1967 very well.
I think Cunningham sees better where we will go next. -
Ai Weiwei: Evolution of a Dissident
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/23/opinion/ai-weiwei-the-evolution-of-a-dissident.html?_r=1
Ai Weiwei appears to believe that there is some absolute aesthetic standard that can be found and should be found.
I do not believe in any such. All such standards are cultural.
The Benthamite "Greatest good for the greatest number." is a cultural measure and does not define any good beyond a culture.
Things that I think are aesthetically unacceptable may be the standard of beauty to others.Ai Weiwei does not communicate aesthetically to me.His political attitude has great appeal. -
NeyomFriday
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Navajos Move Away From Coal in Favor of Sun and Wind
“Navajos Move Away From Coal in Favor of Sun and Wind - http://nyti.ms/9gI8vL”I approve of the action.I wonder about the goal.The method seems good.
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TwittterFan
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Lone Star
“Third day witl the new BBQ grill - http://nyti.ms/lCimlZ”
I do like smoke. Tofu takes smoke well. Tea-smoked tofu may work well.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tofu
"Contents[hide]- 1 Etymology
- 2 Production
- 3 Varieties
- 4 Preparation
- 5 History
- 6 Nutrition and health information
- 7 See also
- 8 Notes
- 9 References
- 10 External links
It pays to research. Sea water! as a coagulant.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soy_milk"it is produced by soaking dry soybeans and grinding them with water."Soaking removes the indigestable polysacrides that cause gas.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flatulence
"In beans, endogenous gases seem to arise from complex oligosaccharides (carbohydrates) that are particularly resistant to digestion by mammals, but which are readily digestible by gut flora – microorganisms (methane-producing archaea; Methanobrevibacter smithii) that inhabit the digestive tract. These oligosaccharides pass through the upper intestine largely unchanged, and when they reach the lower intestine, bacteria feed on them, producing copious amounts of flatus.[6]"
"Certain spices have been reported to counteract the production of intestinal gas, most notably the closely related cumin, coriander, caraway and others such as ajwain, turmeric, asafoetida (hing), epazote, and kombu kelp (a Japanese seaweed). Most starches, including potatoes, corn, noodles, and wheat, produce gas as they are broken down in the large intestine. Rice is the only starch that does not cause gas.[8] The amount of water-soluble oligosaccharide in beans that may contribute to production of intestinal gas is reputed to be reduced by a long period of soaking followed by boiling, but at a cost of also leaching out other water-soluble nutrients.[citation needed] Also, intestinal gas can be reduced by fermenting the beans, and making them less gas-inducing, and/or by cooking them in the liquor from a previous batch. Some legumes also stand up to prolonged cooking, which can help break down the oligosaccharides into simple sugars. On the other hand, fermented bean products such as miso are less likely to produce as much intestinal gas. Fermentative lactic acid bacteria such as Lactobacillus casei and Lactobacillus plantarum reduce flatulence in human intestinal tract.[9]"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lactobacillus_casei
"The most common application of L. casei is industrial, specifically for dairy production. However, a team of scientists from Simón Bolívar University in Caracas, Venezuela found that, by using L. casei bacteria in the natural fermentation of beans, the beans contained lower amounts of the compounds causing flatulence upon digestion.[1] Lactobacillus casei is typically the dominant species of nonstarter lactic acid bacteria (NSLAB) present in ripening Cheddar cheese, and, recently, the complete genome sequence of L. casei ATCC 334 has become available. L. casei is also the dominant species in naturally fermented Sicilian green olives"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lactobacillus_plantarumFood Products
"L. plantarum is commonly found in many fermented food products including sauerkraut, pickles, brined olives, Korean kimchi, Nigerian ogi, sourdough, and other fermented plant material, and also some cheeses, fermented sausages, and stockfish. The high levels of this organism in food also makes it an ideal candidate for the development of probiotics. In Juana Frias et al.(2008)'s study, L. plantarum has been applied to reduce the allergenicity of soy flour. The result showed that, compared to other microbes, L. plantarum-fermented soy flour showed the highest reduction in IgE immunoreactivity (96–99%), depending upon the sensitivity of the plasma used. L. plantarum is also found in dadiah, a traditional fermented buffalo milk of Minangkabau tribe, Indonesia[2]."
Looks to me like fart-free tofu should be easy.It is probably traditional many places.A few grams of plain yogurt in the soy milk may do it. soak the beans with many changes of water. Flavour extensively.
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