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imafrog.ra@gmail.com
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Chris Amato
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Debt Rising in Europe
Greece is not the only country in Europe with problems with credit and debt.OK, You are not reading and understanding.Most are not as far gone as Greece.http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2012/01/special-note-from-bonddad-on-absolute.html
Weimar Approved For Your Browsing Safety
Friday, January 27, 2012
A Special Note From Bonddad on the Absolute Stupidity Behind the Expansionary Austerity Movement
go to the link.
A report for the Kiel Institute for the World Economy said Portugal would have to run a primary budget surplus of over 11pc of GDP a year to prevent debt dynamics spiralling out of control, even in a benign scenario of 2pc annual growth."Portugal's debt is unsustainable. That is the only possible conclusion," said David Bencek, the co-author, warning that no country can achieve a primary budget surplus above 5pc for long."We won't know what the trigger will be but once there is a decision on Greece people are going to start looking closely and realise that Portugal is the same position as Greece was a year ago."Yields on Portugal's five-year bonds surged on Thursday to a record 18.9pc, reflecting fears that the country will need a second rescue from the EU-ECB-IMF Troika. Three-year yields hit 21pc.Antonio Saraiva, head of the Confederation of Portuguese Industry, said the first loan package of €78bn (£65bn) did not acknowledge the vast liabilities of public companies, which have been shut out of global capital markets.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9045516/Greek-debt-deal-hit-by-eurozone-ratings-downgrades.html
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/01/27/855921/fitch-cuts-italy-and-spain-two-notches/Fitch cuts Italy and Spain two notches
Six eurozone sovereigns (but not France!) downgraded by Fitch on Friday…
-Belgium LT IDR downgraded to ‘AA’ from ‘AA+’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR affirmed at ‘F1+’
(LT IDRs or long-term issuer default ratings are the ones you want, really) Brief summary of why Fitch has done it:
-Cyprus LT IDR downgraded to ‘BBB-’ from ‘BBB’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR affirmed at ‘F3′
-Ireland LT IDR affirmed at ‘BBB+’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR affirmed at ‘F2′
-Italy LT IDR downgraded to ‘A-’ from ‘A+’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR downgraded to ‘F2′ from ‘F1′
-Slovenia LT IDR downgraded to ‘A’ from ‘AA-’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR downgraded to ‘F1′ from ‘F1+’
- Spain LT IDR downgraded ‘A’ from ‘AA-’; Negative Outlook; ST IDR downgraded to ‘F1′ from ‘F1+’
This one-notch revision was applied to Belgium, Italy, Slovenia and Spain, but not to Cyprus and Ireland, where their loss of market access had already been demonstrated by their need for official/bilateral support and is already reflected in their low investment-grade ratings. The downgrade for Cyprus, and the additional one-notch cuts for Italy, Spain and Slovenia (ie a total of two notches for each) reflect country-specific concerns primarily related to the banking sector in Cyprus and Slovenia; an adverse shift in the interest-rate growth differential and hence public debt dynamics in Italy; and a significantly worsened fiscal and economic outlook in Spain. A more detailed rating rationale can be found in six separate country specific press releases also being published shortly.
Further comments on Spain and Italy respectively. Fitch says that Italy avoided losing more of its credit rating because of the Monti government’s reforms, and (drumroll) the effect of the ECB’s three-year liquidity on bank demand for debt. With Italy back to selling six-month debt below two per cent you can say that again.
Main takeaway here for us is a second rating agency moving Italy closer to BBB credit territory – which would matter for non-bank investors who follow ratings requirements in bond indices, and so on. Just to go with something topical.
Related links:
Basel considers use of credit ratings in LCR shake-up – Risk
Sovereign ratings correlation like it’s the 1990s – FT Alphaville
This entry was posted by Joseph Cotterill on Friday, January 27th, 2012 at 18:19 and is filed under Capital markets. Tagged with credit ratings, Cyprus, fitch, ireland, Italy, portugal, Spain.
Citing Near-Term Vulnerability, Fitch Downgrades Ratings of Italy and Other Countries
By REUTERS
Published: January 27, 2012
Fitch on Friday downgraded the sovereign credit ratings of Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia and Spain, indicating that there was a 1-in-2 chance of further cuts in the next two years.In a statement, the ratings agency said that the affected countries were vulnerable in the near term to monetary and financial shocks.“Consequently, these sovereigns do not, in Fitch’s view, accrue the full benefits of the euro’s reserve currency status,” it said.Fitch cut Italy’s rating to A-minus from A-plus; Spain to A from AA-minus; Belgium to AA from AA-plus; Slovenia to A from AA-minus, and Cyprus to BBB-minus from BBB, leaving it just one notch above junk status.Ireland’s rating of BBB-plus was affirmed.All of the ratings were given negative outlooks.Fitch said it had weighed a worsening economic outlook in much of the euro zone against the European Central Bank’s December move to flood the banking sector with cheap three-year money and austerity efforts by governments to curb their debts.Two weeks ago, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit ratings of nine euro zone countries, stripping France and Austria of their coveted AAA statuses, and pushing a struggling Portugal into junk territory. Germany kept its AAA status.Italy is widely seen as the tipping point for the euro zone. If it slid toward default, the whole currency project would be threatened.Fitch said of Italy: “A more severe rating action was forestalled by the strong commitm
There will be much more soon.
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claygooding
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Haitians Confront Devastation of Quake
That the poorest country in the hemisphere should be stricken by nature as well as history is an even that is pregnant with tragic irony as well as profound sadness. Perhaps some good will come of this and the great powers will now be shamed into providing the kind of assistance that the first Black republic has for so long been in need of.http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/haiti/index.html?scp=1-spot&sq=haiti&st=cse
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/1982.htmBy January 1804, local forces defeated an army sent by Napoleon Bonaparte, established independence from France, and renamed the area Haiti. The impending defeat of the French in Haiti is widely credited with contributing to Napoleon's decision to sell the Louisiana territory to the United States in 1803. Haiti is the world's oldest black republic and the second-oldest republic in the Western Hemisphere, after the United States. Although Haiti actively assisted the independence movements of many Latin American countries, the independent nation of former slaves was excluded from the hemisphere's first regional meeting of independent nations, in Panama in 1826, and did not receive U.S. diplomatic recognition until 1862.
Two separate regimes--north and south--emerged after independence but were unified in 1820. Two years later, Haiti occupied Santo Domingo, the eastern, Spanish-speaking part of Hispaniola. In 1844, however, Santo Domingo broke away from Haiti and became the Dominican Republic. With 22 changes of government from 1843 to 1915, Haiti experienced numerous periods of intense political and economic disorder, prompting the United States military intervention of 1915. Following a 19-year occupation, U.S. military forces were withdrawn in 1934, and Haiti regained sovereign rule.
The late 1950s saw the start of the violent and repressive dictatorship of Francois "Papa Doc" Duvalier. Elected president in 1957, he declared himself president-for-life in 1964 and ruled until his death in 1971 with the help of his paramilitary force, the Tontons Macoutes. Francois Duvalier was succeeded by his son, Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier, who also declared himself president-for-life. The Duvaliers’ rule was characterized by repressive state controls, including the lack of basic democratic rights. Faced with economic collapse and a popular uprising, Jean-Claude Duvalier fled to France on February 7, 1986. The period immediately after his departure was marked by mob vengeance against members of the Tontons Macoutes. From 1986 to 1990, Haiti was ruled by a series of provisional governments. In March 1987, a constitution was ratified that provided for an elected, bicameral parliament; an elected president as head of state; and a prime minister, cabinet, ministers, and Supreme Court appointed by the president with the parliament's consent. The constitution also provided for political decentralization through the election of mayors and administrative bodies responsible for local government.
In December 1990, Jean-Bertrand Aristide won 67% of the vote in a presidential election that international observers deemed largely free and fair. Aristide took office on February 7, 1991, but was overthrown that September in a violent coup led by army elements and supported by many of the country's economic elite. The coup contributed to a large-scale exodus of Haitians by boat. From October 1991 to September 1994 a de facto military regime governed Haiti. Several thousand Haitians may have been killed during the de facto military rule. Various Organization of American States (OAS) and United Nations initiatives to end the political crisis through the peaceful restoration of the constitutionally elected government failed. On July 31, 1994, the UN Security Council (UNSC) authorized member states to use all necessary means to facilitate the departure of Haiti's military leadership and to restore Haiti's constitutionally elected government to power. In mid-September, with troops prepared to enter Haiti by force, Gen. Raoul Cedras and other top leaders agreed to accept the intervention of the U.S.-led multinational force. President Aristide and other elected officials in exile returned on October 15.
Nationwide local and parliamentary elections in June 1995 returned a pro-Aristide, multi-party coalition called the Lavalas Political Organization (OPL) to power at all levels. In accordance with the constitutional bar on succeeding himself, President Aristide agreed to step aside and support a presidential election in December 1995. Rene Preval, a prominent Aristide political ally, took 88% of the vote, and was sworn in to a 5-year term on February 7, 1996, during what was Haiti's first-ever transition between two democratically elected presidents.
In late 1996, former President Aristide broke from the OPL and created a new political party, the Lavalas Family (FL). The OPL, holding the majority of the Parliament, renamed itself the Struggling People's Organization. Initial results of elections in April 1997 for the renewal of one-third of the Senate and creation of commune-level assemblies and town delegations showed victories for FL candidates in most races. However, the elections, which drew only about 5% of registered voters, were plagued with allegations of fraud and not certified by most international observers as free and fair.
Preval’s first term was marked by political wrangling. The opposition blocked his initiatives, and he failed to organize timely legislative elections. Following parliamentary elections that the opposition deemed deeply flawed on August 28, 2000, Haiti's main bilateral donors re-channeled their assistance away from the government and announced they would not support or send observers to the November elections. Most opposition parties regrouped in an alliance that became the Democratic Convergence. Elections for President and nine Senators took place on November 26, 2000. All major opposition parties boycotted these elections, in which voter participation was estimated at 5%. Jean-Bertrand Aristide emerged as the easy victor of these controversial elections, and the candidates of his FL party swept all contested Senate seats. On February 7, 2001, Jean-Bertrand Aristide was inaugurated as President.
The political stalemate continued, and violence ensued. On July 28, 2001, unknown gunmen attacked police facilities in Port-au-Prince and the provinces. A subsequent government crackdown on opposition party members and former soldiers further increased tensions between Lavalas and Convergence. On December 17, 2001, unidentified gunmen attacked the National Palace in Port-au-Prince. Following the assault, pro-government groups attacked the offices and homes of several opposition leaders. One opposition member was killed. Negotiations between FL and Democratic Convergence were suspended indefinitely.
Despite the creation of an OAS Special Mission designed to strengthen Haiti's democratic institutions in security, justice, human rights, and governance, security continued to deteriorate. Events spiraled downward throughout 2003, as President Aristide and the opposition failed to agree on a political resolution. Following a meeting with Aristide at the Summit of the Americas in January 2004, Caribbean Community leaders proposed a plan to resolve the political crisis, which President Aristide said he accepted. A high-level international delegation went to Haiti February 21 to obtain agreement on a specific implementation timetable. President Aristide agreed, but the opposition "Democratic Platform" group of political parties and civil society expressed reservations. Meanwhile, violence in Gonaives culminated February 5 in the "Artibonite Resistance Front" seizing control of the city. Other armed groups opposed to the Aristide government quickly emerged and succeeded in seizing control of many towns, mostly with little resistance from government authorities. By February 28, 2004, a rebel group led by a former police chief, Guy Philippe, advanced to within 25 miles of the capital. On February 29, 2004 Aristide submitted his resignation as President of Haiti and flew on a chartered plane to Africa.
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Your Street Style Photos: Houndstooth - The New York Times
Be your own street photographer by showing us your style or someone else's in your current climate. Every week, the Styles section solicits street fashion photos based on a theme. The best photos will be published on Nytimes.com/fashion on Mondays...
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