Sunday, January 1, 2012

@16:45, 01/01/12 2

.


22222222222222222222222222222222



  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Dec 31, 2011
    brynjo
    • Erik Brynjolfsson recommended an article:
      Sep 10, 2010
      Goolsbee to Be Named Chairman of Economic Advisers
      President Obama will promote Austan D. Goolsbee to chairman of his Council of Economic Advisers.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austan_D._Goolsbee
      "On June 6, 2011, he announced that he was departing the administration and returning to the University of Chicago."
      He came.  He saw.  He did not fix it. 
  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Dec 31, 2011
    josephsiry
    • spmiller posted to Twitter an article:
      Mar 11, 2011
      Japan’s Strict Codes and Drills Are Seen as Lifesavers
      “NYT article on my earlier tweet about Kobe's influence on disaster preparedness - http://nyti.ms/dTjIQb” 

      The building codes and evacuation drills did save lives.
      The sea walls were worse than useless.
      "There is always a bigger wave."
      Japan has nothing to crow about in being better prepared than others.  
      In the event the preparation was not sufficient.
  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Dec 31, 2011
    spmiller
    • spmiller posted to Twitter an article:
      Mar 11, 2011
      Japan’s Strict Codes and Drills Are Seen as Lifesavers
      “NYT article on my earlier tweet about Kobe's influence on disaster preparedness - http://nyti.ms/dTjIQb” 
      The building codes and evacuation drills did save lives.
      The sea walls were worse than useless.
      "There is always a bigger wave."
      Japan has nothing to crow about in being better prepared than others.  
      In the event the preparation was not sufficient.
  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Dec 31, 2011
    D A Berkowitz
    • Craig Simon, Ph.D. is following a user:
      Dec 31, 2011
      Bill Appledorf
      • Bill Appledorf recommended an article:
        Aug 4, 2010
        As Finances Tighten, Furloughs Give Way to Pay Cuts
        Local and state governments, as well as some companies, are resorting to wage reductions, often to avoid layoffs.
        Good luck with any such.
        Krugman has made this a persistent theme.

        "December 24, 2011, 8:56 am

        Exchange Rates and Wages

        A followup to my post about modern Chicago economists forgetting what Milton Friedman knew: recent events have actually given us a dramatic demonstration of the reality of nominal wage stickiness. Here’s a graph I’ve shown before:
        It shows wages in domestic currency for three crisis economies, Ireland, Latvia, and Iceland; it also shows Icelandic wages converted into euros at the market exchange rate. What you see here is that despite crushing unemployment, wages in Ireland and Latvia have come down only slightly — but Iceland, by letting its currency devalue, achieved a quick 30 percent fall in wages relative to the euro zone.
        And international macroeconomists know that the behavior of real exchange rates — exchange rates adjusted for relative inflation — is a prime piece of evidence for price stickiness. Not only do real rates move very closely with nominal rates, but the behavior of real rates changes dramatically when you move from floating to fixed rates or vice versa.
        It would be one thing if people like Cochrane had a serious critique of all this evidence, and of the decades-long research agenda that has confirmed the importance of price stickiness. But what’s clear in this discussion is that these guys are simply unaware of all this work, and feel entitled to make proclamations a priori.
        What went wrong with the economics profession?"

      • Bill Appledorf commented on an article:
        Jun 6, 2010
        Coast Guard Sees Cleanup of Spill Lasting Until the Fall
        If the Discoverer Enterprise drill ship can only handle 15,000 barrels a day out of the 30,000 barrels or more that are gushing out of the sea floor, doesn't common sense lead one to conclude that a flotilla of oil tankers could capture more once the Discoverer Enterprise is full? Also, the more I read about BP's deception and ineptitude, the more I wonder why our government -- we do still have a government, don't we? -- doesn't take BP over and make it perfectly clear to BP and everybody else that BP is now working for the American people. Listening to all the crooked talk and watching all the bumbling of BP and everybody else who is supposedly in charge of this crime against our planet makes me feel like taking a walk down Main Street carrying a sign to the effect that "The End Is Near."
        The cleanup effort has fallen out of the news.  The politicians claim it is finished. 
        http://www.restorethegulf.gov/release/2010/12/16/data-analysis-and-findings
        Looks like a final report.
    • Craig Simon, Ph.D. posted to Twitter an article:
      Mar 25, 2011
      The Austerity Delusion
      “Great Krugman NYT article on phantom risks and confidence fairies. The Austerity Delusion - http://nyti.ms/f5cxxy” 
      Regulation and taxes threaten the Republican power base.
      The Republicans will fight them in any way they can.
  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Dec 31, 2011
    wpsands
    • wpsands posted to Twitter a blog post:
      Mar 8, 2011
      Edward L. Glaeser: How Seattle Transformed Itself
      “Edward L. Glaeser: How Seattle Transformed Itself - http://nyti.ms/eOxIal” 
      A nice tale.  There is more fiction in it than there should be.
      The port is very vital. Industry is dominated by Boeing and Microsoft. The surrounds are dominated by the suburban sprawl of Redmond. This is a company town. 
  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Dec 31, 2011
    Erik Brynjolfsson
    • Erik Brynjolfsson recommended an article:
      Sep 10, 2010
      Goolsbee to Be Named Chairman of Economic Advisers
      President Obama will promote Austan D. Goolsbee to chairman of his Council of Economic Advisers.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austan_D._Goolsbee
      "On June 6, 2011, he announced that he was departing the administration and returning to the University of Chicago."
  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Dec 31, 2011
    Marie Burns
    http://www.borowitzreport.com/
    "On the ground in Iowa, Gingrich campaign strategists are working overtime to confront the challenge posed by voters remembering who he is, aides to the former House Speaker said today.
    According to one campaign source, the Gingrich campaign has begun seeking the support of people with mental disorders and other memory issues that make it hard for them to retain basic information."
    The seven dwarfs are very scary. 
  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Dec 31, 2011
    Maryann Nolan
  • TimesPeople recommended a user:
    Dec 31, 2011
    leah16j@yahoo.com
    • Craig Simon, Ph.D. is following a user:
      Dec 31, 2011
      Bill Appledorf
    • Craig Simon, Ph.D. posted to Twitter an article:
      Mar 25, 2011
      The Austerity Delusion
      “Great Krugman NYT article on phantom risks and confidence fairies. The Austerity Delusion - http://nyti.ms/f5cxxy” 

      Der Spiegel has nothing new.

      'The Slog' is thinking but not reporting. 

      'Naked Capitalism'  has no news.

      The gold bugs at 'Zero Hedge' are gloating in advance of events.

      The Times as always thinks things are about to improve.

      Bloomberg:

      Euro Leaders Aim to Buy Time to Save Currency

      Q
      By Patrick Donahue - Jan 1, 2012 6:00 PM ET

      "European leaders return to work from Christmas holidays seeking to buy time for the Spanish and Italian governments to wrest control over their debt and rescue the single currency from fragmentation as the region’s crisis enters a new year.
      Some 157 billion euros ($203 billion) in debt will mature in the 17-member euro area in the first three months of 2012, according to UBS AG. By the end of that period, leaders have pledged to draft a stricter rulebook for controlling government spending. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will meet in Berlin Jan. 9 to work out details.
      “The path to overcoming this won’t be without setbacks, but at the end of this path, Europe will emerge stronger from the crisis than before,” Merkel said in a New Year’s speech broadcast Dec. 31. She said that her government will do “everything” to bring the euro out of the slump.
      On the 10th anniversary of the introduction of the euro bank notes that replaced national currencies, the euro for the first time had two consecutive annual losses against the U.S. dollar and plunged to a record low against the yen. European leaders are struggling to hold the monetary union together in the face of credit downgrades, emerging splits in the European Union and a looming recession that could compound rising debt.
      Italy’s EU53 Billion
      The latest crack appeared Dec. 30, when Spain’s new government said 2011’s budget deficit would reach 8 percent of output, 2 percent more than the previous government had projected and more than the 6.9 percent expected by economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy responded by unveiling a new package of spending cuts and tax increases.
      Still, the key to the euro’s survival may lie with Italy, the group’s third-largest economy and the second most-indebted after Greece. The government in Rome must repay 53 billion euros in debt in the first quarter, about a third of the euro area’s total amount for the period, after Prime Minister Mario Monti passed an emergency budget package aimed at curtailing borrowing costs.
      Italy’s 10-year yield ended 2011 near the 7 percent mark that led Greece, Ireland and Portugal to seek bailouts. Spain’s equivalent yield finished the year just above 5 percent.
      “If the Italian yields start to rise, you could quickly turn a manageable situation into an insolvent one,” Michael Spence, a professor of economics at New York University and a Nobel laureate, said on Bloomberg Television Dec. 28. “Italy needs time and Europe needs to help buy them some of the time.”

      Sarkozy

      German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble echoed that strategy, telling the Bild newspaper yesterday that European rescue funds can only “buy time” before indebted states take “the necessary measures to win back confidence.”
      The euro lost 3 percent against the dollar last year, ending at $1.2961, a decline of 13 percent from its 2011 high of $1.4830 on May 2. It lost 3.2 percent in the last quarter.
      France’s Sarkozy said that his government will turn from budget fighting to economic growth and unemployment in 2012, which will be “the year of all risks and of all possibilities,” he said Dec. 31 in his fifth New Year’s address, the last he will give before facing a re-election contest in May. Sarkozy will meet with Italy’s Monti in Paris on Jan. 6.
      In a New Year’s message given to Greek citizens, Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said his nation will confront a “difficult” 2012 and said that the “next three months will be particularly crucial.”

      Greek Debt Swap

      Papademos, appointed on Nov. 11 as head of a government backed by three of the five parliamentary parties, is trying to secure loans under a 130 billion-euro bailout for Greece agreed to in October by European Union leaders before elections are held. Measures include negotiating a debt swap with private creditors that will cut 100 billion euros off Greece’s burden.
      As Europe’s leaders tinker at a new budget framework and craft the so-called firewall that will prop up ailing states, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said that the European Central Bank won’t “step into the breach for fiscal policy.”
      “We have to make it clear where our legal, but also our real limits, are,” Weidmann, who is a council member of the Frankfurt-based ECB, told Tagesspiegel newspaper yesterday.
      Fiscal and monetary efforts could be hampered by a shrinking economy in the euro area, which would crimp tax revenues and fuel unemployment. The economy of the 17-nation area will shrink by about 0.7 percent this year, said Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight in London.
      “We expect eurozone recession to occur in late-2011 and the first half of 2012 in the face of the ongoing eurozone sovereign debt crisis,” Archer wrote in a Dec. 30 note to clients. “It is vital that eurozone policymakers get a real grip on matters quickly.”
      To contact the reporter on this story: Patrick Donahue in Munich at pdonahue1@bloomberg.net"




      This is disaster.  About two weeks off.  January 15.  A guess.



 
.
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)