1
How Chinese Spies Got the N.S.A.’s Hacking Tools, and Used Them for Attacks
The latest case of cyberweapons escaping American control raises questions
about the United States’ expensive and dangerous digital arsenal.
People are much the same.
2
‘I’ve Battled,’ Tiger Woods Says as He Accepts Presidential Medal of Freedom
President Trump offered the honor to Mr. Woods soon after the golfer won
the Masters last month for his 15th major championship — and his first in
almost 11 years.
Ok
3
Steven Mnuchin Refuses to Release Trump’s Tax Returns to Congress
Mr. Mnuchin said that the request “lacks a legitimate legislative purpose.”
As expected.
4
Trump Embraces the Traditional Fund-Raising He Once Shunned
“I don’t need anybody’s money,” Mr. Trump said after announcing his
candidacy in June 2015. He does not say that anymore.
Free money
5
Federal Reserve Warns as Risky Corporate Debt Exceeds Peak Crisis Level
Defaults on the loans — known as leveraged lending — remain low, but the
Fed warned that could change if the economy faltered.
Risk is under priced.
6
On Politics With Lisa Lerer: What Does ‘Electability’ Mean in the 2020 Race? Here Are 5 Theories
In the On Politics newsletter: Nearly every candidate can stake a claim as
the most electable. It just depends on how you think the election will be
won.
Primaries and conventions answer these questions.
Campaigns ask them before the primaries.
7
Inaugural Official Disputes White House Account of Her Departure
Stephanie Winston Wolkoff, a former adviser to the first lady who played a
key role in planning President Trump’s inaugural festivities, said she was
“thrown under the bus.”
The crowd was small.
8
Tuesday: Job Openings
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Lowest Mortgage Rates in a Month
Mortgage rates dropped noticeably this morning as financial markets opened
sharply changed from Friday's latest levels thanks to Trump trade tweets
over the weekend. The stock market dropped to its lowest levels in several
weeks before bouncing back as the day progressed. As money flew out of
stocks, it found a safe haven in the bond market. Mortgage rates are most
directly affected by the bond market, and when demand for bonds increases,
rates fall.
The average lender was offering its best rates in roughly... more »
Wages have been slow to move.
9
United States Rattles Arctic Talks With a Sharp Warning to China and Russia
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking in Finland at a meeting of the
Arctic Council, warned both countries against “aggressive” actions in the
region.
Trump has not progressed beyond gunboats.
10
One Million Species At Risk of Extinction + One
So, you’ve probably seen all the articles about the UN report which finds
that one million species are at risk of extinction, out of the 8.7 million
species we believe exist. That’s more than 10%. The key thing that tends
not to be emphasized in this is that ecosystems are chains, or complex webs
of […]
The existential crisis is not yet obvious to all.
11
Trump Advisers Accuse China of Reneging on Trade Commitments
A trade war that seemed to be on the brink of ending now appears likely to
be prolonged as President Trump threatens to impose more tariffs on China.
Trump should learn to read.
12
Update: Framing Lumber Prices Down 35% Year-over-year
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. Lumber prices
declined from the record highs in early 2018, and are now down about 35%
year-over-year.
This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from
Random Lengths through April 26, 2019 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing
futures.
[image: Lumcber Prices]*Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.*
Right now Random Lengths prices are down 31% from a year ago, and CME
futures are down 40% year-over-year.
There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will
increase in the Spring... more »
Development is not as rosey as the mills thought.
13
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to Rally for Green New Deal in Washington
Ms. Ocasio-Cortez has long aligned herself with Sunrise Movement, the young
activists pressuring Democrats to act boldly to address climate change.
The primary campaigns have started.
14
When will I make another "Big" economic call?
A short note: Over the years, I've made several significant economic calls.
For example, I predicted a recession in 2007, a recovery in 2009 (link is
first in a series of posts), the top for housing prices in early 2006 and
the bottom for housing prices in early 2012. I do not have a crystal ball,
and I've missed some calls - but by watching the data closely, I've been
pretty lucky overall.
Sometimes people ask me when I'll make another call. I don't know; I'm
very data dependent!
But I was wondering if these count? Back in December 2015, I wrote The
Endless Parade of Recession C... more »
CR likes being right. He will wait for the data.
15
Trump Denies Democrats His Tax Returns and Prepares for a Contempt Showdown
A showdown between the executive and legislative branches has ratcheted up,
as President Trump and his administration have resisted Democrats’
oversight efforts on multiple fronts.
No surprise.
16
New Tensions With Iran Threaten Nuclear Deal and, White House Says, U.S. Troops
The mutual threats escalated action from both the U.S., which warned
against attacks, and Iran, which said it would not fully comply with a deal
President Trump already abandoned.
Trump is being stupid.
17
How to Report the Monthly Employment Number excluding Temporary Census Hiring
The Census Bureau will soon start hiring temporary workers for the 2020
Census. Temporary hiring will really increase in March, April and May of
2020, and then the jobs will finish in a few months. These are real jobs -
frequently second jobs, or taken by seniors and students - but they will
only last a few months.
Since these are temporary, and only happen every ten years with the
decennial Census, it makes sense to adjust the headline monthly Current
Employment Statistics (CES) by Census hiring to determine the underlying
employment trend.
The correct adjustment method is to take... more »
Ok
18
Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March: National Delinquency Rate Nearing Record Low
Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for March today.
According to Black Knight, 3.65% of mortgages were delinquent in March,
down from 3.73% in March 2018. Black Knight also reported that 0.51% of
mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.63% a year ago.
This gives a total of 4.16% delinquent or in foreclosure.
Press Release: Black Knight: Servicers Retained Just 18% of Customers
Post-Refinance in Q1 2019, a 13-Year Low; Slight Rate Increase Reduces
Refinanceable Population by 1 Million
Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight, Inc. released ... more »
Recovery continues.
19
Humans Are Speeding Extinction and Altering the Natural World at an ‘Unprecedented’ Pace
A dire United Nations report, based on thousands of scientific studies,
paints an urgent picture of biodiversity loss and finds that climate change
is amplifying the danger to humanity.
Exponential growth is not obvious to most.
20
Cory Booker’s Gun Control Plan Calls for National Licensing Program
The proposal includes some of the most progressive gun-control measures
suggested yet by a presidential candidate, like a plan to license guns
across the country.
The plan is not a winner yet.
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