1
Thursday: GDP, Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales
Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The *initial weekly unemployment claims* report will be
released. The consensus is for 215 thousand initial claims, up from 211
thousand last week.
• At 8:30 AM, *Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2019* (Second estimate).
The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q2, down from
the advance estimate of 3.2%.
• At 10:00 AM, *Pending Home Sales Index* for April. The consensus is for a
0.3% increase in the index.
Perhapse there is wisdom in crowds.
2
Punching Iran Over Its Foreign Policy Could Lead to a Faster Path to War
Wrestling with Iran’s diplomacy and military activity could prompt a
confrontation between Washington and Tehran well before any showdown over a
nuclear program.
Iran would be foolish to go to war.
John R. Bolton may be that foolish.
3
Women Sue F.B.I., Claiming Discrimination at Training Academy
The women say they were exposed to a hostile work environment, sexual
harassment and inappropriate jokes while training to become agents or
intelligence analysts.
First win the suit.
4
Pelosi Slow-Walks Trump’s New Nafta Deal
Resisting President Trump’s entreaties, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is dragging
out consideration of an updated North American trade deal, putting off a
vote at least until the fall.
Frustration can run both ways.
5
Nancy Pelosi Criticizes Facebook for Handling of Altered Videos
Ms. Pelosi said the company’s decision to leave up manipulated videos of
her demonstrated how the social network contributed to Russian manipulation
of the 2016 election.
If Facebook edits content it is a content provider and responsible.
It does and is. Facebook must be sued.
6
Standing Where Barr Cleared Trump on Obstruction, Mueller Makes a Different Case
The special counsel hopes an appearance will be his first and last public
statement about the Russia and obstruction investigation. But he left many
things unsaid.
The House will build the cases against Trump as they should.
7
House Leaders Push Mueller to Testify as More Democrats Clamor for Impeachment
Robert S. Mueller III stated clearly that he hoped his public statement
Wednesday would be his last, but with impeachment fever rising, Democrats
want him on a witness stand.
Mueller will testify when asked.
8
U.S. Believes Russia Has Restarted Low-Yield Nuclear Tests
If true, the finding could eventually prompt the Trump administration to
begin its own testing. But some experts said the accusations were nothing
new.
"The only way to win is not to play"
9
Nancy Pelosi Criticizes Facebook for Handling of Altered Videos
Ms. Pelosi said the company’s decision to leave up manipulated videos of
her demonstrated how the social network contributed to Russian manipulation
of the 2016 election.
Nancy Pelosi is correct.
10
The Shifting Standards of Mitch McConnell
Despite his blockade of an Obama Supreme Court nominee in a presidential
election year, the Senate majority leader is now definitive that he would
push a Trump nominee in 2020.
Mitch McConnell is a fanatic.
11
Man in Critical Condition After Setting Himself on Fire Near the White House
The Secret Service cleared the area of people, including a group protesting
the Trump administration’s plan to roll back protections for transgender
individuals.
Use enough fuel.
12
After Mueller Statement, More 2020 Democrats Call for Impeachment
Previously, only a few candidates had called for beginning impeachment
proceedings against President Trump. Now, a majority of the Democratic
field has expressed support.
Dramatic.
Time is too short.
Defeat him and send him to prison.
13
Beto O’Rourke Proposes Immigration Overhaul That Would Undo Trump Policies
Mr. O’Rourke’s broad plan also seeks a path to citizenship for undocumented
people and strengthened ties between the United States and Latin America.
Baby steps.
Those policies must go.
14
Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast: Slower YoY Price Gains in April
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for March were released yesterday.
Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow
forecasts since they have been pretty close.
From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: March Case-Shiller Results and April
Forecast: Home Buyers Hitting a Breaking Point?
Looking ahead, Zillow’s April Case-Shiller forecast is for continued modest
slowdowns in annual home price growth across all three major indices.
Annual U.S. home price growth is expected to fall to 3.6%.
The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the
Case-Shille... more »
Guessing.
15
Despite Warning From Trump, Roy Moore Says He Can Win Alabama Senate Seat
Mr. Moore, a Republican former judge who lost a Senate race to Doug Jones
after being accused of pursuing teenage girls, has said he is “strongly
considering” running again.
The South will not rise again.
16
Full Transcript of Mueller’s Statement on Russia Investigation
The special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, made public remarks on
Wednesday about the Russia investigation.
Read it.
17
Trump Warns Roy Moore Against Alabama Senate Run
Mr. Moore, a Republican former judge who lost a Senate race to Doug Jones
after being accused of pursuing teenage girls, has said he is “strongly
considering” running again.
Church and state are and must be separate.
18
Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased in April
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in
April was 0.65%, down from 0.67% in March. Freddie's rate is down from
0.94% in April 2018.
Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.
This is the lowest serious delinquency rate for Freddie Mac since December
2007.
These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due
or in foreclosure".
[image: Fannie Freddie Seriously Delinquent Rate]*Click on graph for larger
image*
I expect the delinquency rate to decline to a cycle bottom in the 0.4% to
0.6% range - so th... more »
watch this space. The lenders have been cautious.
19
Mueller, in First Comments on Russia Inquiry, Declines to Clear Trump
Though he did not rule out congressional testimony, the special counsel
also said that he would only testify about the facts already in the report.
Congress must do its work.
20
Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Was Moderate in May"
From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District Manufacturing Was Moderate in May
Fifth District manufacturing activity was moderate in May, according to the
most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. *The
composite index inched up from 3 in April to 5 in May*, as shipments and
new orders had fairly flat reading and the third component, employment,
remained positive. Firms reported growth in spending and positive overall
business conditions and remained optimistic about growth in the coming
months.
Survey results indicated that employment and wages grew in May, while the
i... more »
Trending down.
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