Sunday, May 5, 2019

@11:45, 5/5/19

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1

Can a Woman Win? 2020 Candidates Offer an Easy Answer: ‘I Have’

ASTEAD W. HERNDON and LISA LERER at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
While the “must defeat Trump” calculus has largely buoyed male presidential candidates, several women in the Democratic field have a track record of winning over skeptical voters.
 
The person who wins the convention is the candidate.
I will vote for the candidate in the general election.
 

Biden Makes First Campaign Appearance in South Carolina, Key Primary State

ASTEAD W. HERNDON at NYT > Politics - 16 hours ago
The speech indicated how Mr. Biden will bring his “working-class Joe” brand to a more diverse Democratic electorate, with black voters playing a dominant role.
 
I will not vote for Joe Biden in a primary.
 

Senator Michael Enzi Announces His Retirement

EMILY COCHRANE at NYT > Politics - 19 hours ago
Mr. Enzi, 75, who has held his seat since 1997, became the third Republican senator to announce ahead of the 2020 campaign that he would not seek re-election.
 
The Democrats need every seat.
 

In Weapons Tests, North Korea Revives an Old Playbook, With a Strategic Twist

DAVID E. SANGER and CHOE SANG-HUN at NYT > Politics - 20 hours ago
A year after beginning a bold experiment in the power of personal diplomacy, President Trump has run headlong into its limits, discovering that it is not a counterproliferation strategy.
 
China needs the buffer of North Korea. 
 

Senator Michael Enzi Announces His Retirement

EMILY COCHRANE at NYT > Politics - 20 hours ago
Mr. Enzi, 75, who has held his seat since 1997, said he planned to spend the remainder of his term focusing on budget overhaul.
 
Fixing the emergency prepardness budget is a good thing.
Some emergencies are chronic.
 

Pelosi Warns Democrats: Stay in the Center or Trump May Contest Election Results

GLENN THRUSH at NYT > Politics - 23 hours ago
The speaker’s “coldblooded” plan for defeating President Trump, who she worries would challenge a slim Democratic victory in 2020, focuses on moderate voters and avoiding a protracted impeachment bid.
 
"Do not let the perfect become the enemy of the good."
 

In Push for Trade Deal, Trump Administration Shelves Sanctions Over China’s Crackdown on Uighurs

ALAN RAPPEPORT and EDWARD WONG at NYT > Politics - 23 hours ago
During trade talks, U.S. officials have avoided confronting China about its persecution of Uighurs despite bipartisan pressure, fearing such a move could harm a deal.
 
Trump is not a diplomat.
 

Facebook Faces a Big Penalty, but Regulators Are Split Over How Big

CECILIA KANG at NYT > Politics - 23 hours ago
The F.T.C. chairman seems to have the votes to approve a settlement. One of the biggest issues has been whether to hold Mark Zuckerberg liable for future violations.
 
Any penalty exists to induce a change in the FaceBook business model.
 

New North Korea Weapons Test Threatens Trump’s Diplomatic Achievement

CHOE SANG-HUN and MOTOKO RICH at NYT > Politics - 23 hours ago
Kim Jong-un’s latest weapons tests signaled that North Korea was escalating its pressure on President Trump to return to the table with a compromise on easing sanctions, analysts said.
 
Trump did not get the agreement he desired.
 
 10 

Biden Thinks Trump Is the Problem, Not All Republicans. Other Democrats Disagree.

SHANE GOLDMACHER at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
The former vice president is defending his friendliness toward Republicans in Washington, saying Mr. Trump doesn’t represent them. But others say that view is naïve.
 
Biden is mistaken.
Examin the results.
 
11 

Schedule for Week of May 5, 2019

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 day ago
The key report this week is the April CPI. *----- Monday, May 6th -----* No major economic releases scheduled. *----- Tuesday, May 7th -----* [image: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey] 10:00 AM ET: *Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey* for March from the BLS. This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. Jobs openings increased decreased in February to 7.087 million from 7.625 million in January. The number of job openings (yellow) were up 9% year-over-year, and Quits ... more » 
 
Getting things right the first time is the cheap way.
 
12 

Candidates With a History of Big Promises

VINCENT M. MALLOZZI at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Six of the 23 presidential candidates have appeared in The Times’s weddings pages. Care to guess which ones?
 
Sooner is better.         As soon as you can is best.
 
13 

On Politics: The Biggest Stories of the Week

ISABELLA GRULLÓN PAZ at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
It’s been a busy week in American politics. Here are some of the stories you might have missed.
 
There were no surprises.
 
14 

Otto Warmbier’s Mother Likens North Korea to ‘Absolute Evil’

MIHIR ZAVERI at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Ms. Warmbier called diplomacy with North Korea a “charade” and urged world leaders to keep pressure on the country.
 
She is an imperialist.
 
15 

AAR: April Rail Carloads down 0.9% YoY, Intermodal Down 3.9% YoY

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 day ago
From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. *Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission*. Volumes for U.S. railroads in April 2019 were far from ideal, but they were much better than in March. *Total carloads in April were down 0.9%* (9,130 carloads), compared with a decline of 8.9% (93,616 carloads) in March. … The improvement in April was due partly to a return to near-normal operations in the Midwest as numerous rail lines that had been flooded were returned to service — coal and grain were especially impacted. ... *Intermodal volume fell 3.9%*, or ... more » 
 
This does not look good.
 
16 

Comments on April Employment Report

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 1 day ago
The headline jobs number at 263 thousand for April was above consensus expectations of 180 thousand, and the previous two months were revised up 16 thousand, combined. The unemployment rate declined to 3.6%. Overall this was a strong report. Earlier: April Employment Report: 263,000 Jobs Added, 3.6% Unemployment Rate In April, the year-over-year employment change was 2.620 million jobs. That is solid year-over-year growth. *Average Hourly Earnings* Wage growth was close to expectations. From the BLS: "*In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payroll... more » 
 
Look at the graph.  
 
17

Trump Says He Discussed the ‘Russian Hoax’ in a Phone Call With Putin

MARK LANDLER at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
The conversation took place shortly after the release of the special counsel’s report documenting Russian efforts to tilt the 2016 election in President Trump’s direction.
 
 Reports of a discussion between liers by a lier are meaningless beyond the mind of the reporter.
 
18 

Jay Inslee, Running as a Climate Candidate, Wants Coal Gone in 10 Years

LISA FRIEDMAN and MATT STEVENS at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
The Washington governor’s new climate plan sets a series of targets for clean energy across three sectors: electricity, vehicles and buildings.
 
Ok
 
19 

Ohio Congressional Map Is Illegal Gerrymander, Federal Court Rules

TRIP GABRIEL and MICHAEL WINES at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
The ruling, by a three-judge panel from the Federal District Court in Cincinnati, ordered new maps to be drawn before the 2020 election.
 
They have the time to fix the map.
 
20 

Fed Leaders Try to Talk Up Inflation Without Stoking Rate Cut Expectations

JEANNA SMIALEK at NYT > Politics - 1 day ago
Despite low inflation and White House cajoling, Fed officials continued to suggest a path of inaction on interest rates.
 
A bit more stimulation would be good.
 
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