1
Trump and Biden Campaign Trade Jabs Over North Korea’s Remarks
After the president sided with Kim Jong-un in mocking Mr. Biden’s
intelligence, Mr. Biden let an aide rebut it instead of taking on Mr. Trump
himself.
Trump does not think well.
2
Justin Amash, Under Attack for Impeachment Talk, Finds Mixed Support at Home
Representative Justin Amash, always a marginal Republican figure, finds
himself on center stage for his view on the president’s conduct: hero to
many, goat to many more.
I would rather be Justin Amash than his detractors.
3
Wednesday: Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Are Great, But
They Could Be Greater
The world of mortgage rate analysis is both simple and complicated. On a
simple note, rates are near long-term lows and they'll generally continue
to follow the broader market for interest rates (which is largely based on
US Treasuries, domestically). …
The biggest issue--and the one that's most difficult to explain in simple
terms--is that mortgages have not been doing a good job of keeping pace
with Treasury yields lately. [*30YR FIXED - 4.0% - 4.125%*]
emphasis added
Wednesday:
• At ... more »
The banks are desperate to lend.
4
White House Insider Account Has Feel of an Outside View, and Prompts a Mueller Denial
Michael Wolff’s second book on the chaotic Trump White House also delves
into the work of the special counsel, whose spokesman denied one of its
most explosive claims.
Politics are still entertainment.
5
More Than Patriotism on Their Sleeves: Military Patches Sport Trump Likeness
A flap over politically themed patches worn by some American troops during
President Trump’s visit of a warship in Japan has forced the Navy to review
its policies.
Cults of personalty are not part of the command structure.
6
Former Navy Judge Named to Oversee Guantánamo Military Court
Progress in trying terrorist suspects has been scant. The last full-time
person in the role was dismissed after considering plea deals in the Sept.
11 and the destroyer Cole cases.
Guantanamo prison should be empty.
The Republican party has not allowed the further release of prisoners.
7
On Politics With Lisa Lerer: Summer Predictions
In the On Politics newsletter, bold predictions for what’s going to happen
with the 2020 candidates this summer.
The primary race will simplify as it should.
8
Treasury Dept. Declines to Label China a Currency Manipulator
The decision could avoid further escalating tensions between Washington and
Beijing, which have grown heated after a breakdown in trade negotiations
this month.
Trump does not try to think.
9
Transportation Secretary Failed to Sever Financial Ties to Construction Company
Elaine Chao’s ownership of stock in a company that sells materials used in
highway building differs from the terms of her ethics agreement.
One must understand the contract.
Do not violate the terms.
10
Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in March
Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House
Price Index increased 3.7% year-over-year in March
It has been over *eleven years* since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller
release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was
reported as being 12.6% above the previous bubble peak. *However, in real
terms, the National index (SA) is still about 7.9% below the bubble peak *(and
historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The
composite 20, in real terms, is still 14.7% below the bubble peak.
The year-over-year increase i... more »
A limit may have been reached.
11
Kamala Harris Wants to Require States to Clear Abortion Laws With Justice Dept.
Taking a cue from the Voting Rights Act, Ms. Harris’s plan would require
some states to obtain federal approval before restrictions could take
effect.
The Justice Department cannot be trusted to support abortion and other forms of contraception.
12
For Second Time, One Republican’s Objection Delays Disaster Aid
Representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky objected to a request on Tuesday
to pass a $19.1 billion emergency relief package by unanimous consent,
becoming the second House Republican to block final passage.
The objections appear tactical.
Trump needs his wall.
13
Justices to Hear Case of U.S. Agent’s Shooting of Teenager Across the Mexican Border
The Supreme Court also issued a decision limiting suits against the police
by people claiming retaliatory arrests for exercising their First Amendment
rights.
The Republican party must not become the U.S. government.
14
Trump Undercuts Bolton on North Korea and Iran
The disconnect between President Trump and his third national security
adviser has sown confusion around the world about America’s foreign policy.
I would not be unhappy to see Bolton depart.
15
Savior of G.M. Lordstown Plant, Hailed by Trump, Is a Corporate Cipher
The electric-truck venture hailed by President Trump exists almost entirely
on paper and would need $300 million to get the factory running again.
Big talk and no money.
16
Update: A few comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices
CR Note: This is a repeat of earlier posts with updated graphs.
A few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the
seasonal pattern.
3) Even though distressed sales are down significantly, the seasonal factor
is based on several years of data - and the factor is now overstating the
seasonal change (second graph below).
4) Still the seasonal index is probably a better indicator of actual price
movements than the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) index.
For in depth description of these issues, see ... more »
I do not need to purchase soon.
Sooner is better. As soon as you can is best.
17
Supreme Court Sidesteps Abortion Question in Ruling on Indiana Law
The justices upheld a law on the disposal of fetal remains, but declined to
hear a case on whether states can prohibit abortions sought solely based on
a fetal characteristic like sex or disability.
Abortion remains safe and legal.
Several states are frustrated.
18
Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues but Pace Slows"
From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues but Pace Slows
Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace,
according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing
Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing
conditions, fell six points to 6.3, indicating output growth decelerated
from April.
Most other measures of manufacturing activity also suggested slower
expansion in May. The survey’s demand indicators fell but remained
positive: The new orders index slipped seven points to 2.4, and the gro... more »
The war on statistics continues.
19
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 3.7% year-over-year in March
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March ("March"
is a 3 month average of January, February and March prices).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite
indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
*Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA
data for the graphs.*
From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Home Price Gains
Continue to Weaken
The S&P CoreLogic *Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index,
covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.7% ... more »
The market is getting ahead of itself.
20
The Most Important Climate Change Graph You’ll Every See
This is why we won’t be stopping climate change, and why you must
personally plan for it. We are not going to start mitigating at 5% this
year. We are not going to start mitigating at 9% in 2029. These are
political non-starters. They will not happen. For whatever reason
Money persists in seeking rent.
Ian Welsh is probably correct.
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