1
Iran Slams U.S. After Middle East Troop Buildup Is Announced
Tehran responded with a threat of “two new secret weapons” after the Trump
administration pushed ahead with arms sales and promised to deploy extra
forces.
Diplomacy is important.
Trump and the Revolutionary Guard are not listening.
3
Schedule for Week of May 26, 2019
The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, Case-Shiller
house prices, and Personal Income and Outlays for April.
For manufacturing, the May Dallas and Richmond Fed manufacturing surveys
will be released.
*----- Monday, May 27th -----*
All US markets will be closed in observance of *Memorial Day*.
*----- Tuesday, May 28th -----*
[image: Case-Shiller House Prices Indices]9:00 AM: *S&P/Case-Shiller House
Price Index* for March.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted
National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most ... more »
Coming events.
4
Open Thread
Feel free to use the comments to this post discuss topics not covered in
recent posts.
5
Huawei Ban Threatens Wireless Service in Rural Areas
Many small carriers depend on inexpensive equipment from the Chinese
company. Now they must rethink expansion plans, and perhaps replace
existing gear.
The chosen solution is the cell phone.
6
On Politics: The Biggest Stories of the Week
It’s been a busy week in American politics. Here are some of the stories
you might have missed.
No news.
7
John Bolton Says North Korean Missile Tests Violated U.N. Resolutions
Mr. Bolton said there was “no doubt” that missile tests this month violated
Security Council resolutions. President Trump had earlier downplayed their
importance.
John Bolton is not a peaceful person.
8
In Shift, Trump Will Pick Kenneth Cuccinelli to Oversee Legal Immigration
Mr. Cuccinelli, who was expected to coordinate immigration policy, will
instead be chosen to take over for the embattled head of United States
Citizenship and Immigration Services.
Trump is fighting with his supporters.
9
E.P.A. Experts Objected to ‘Misleading’ Agency Smog Decision, Emails Show
One agency scientist expressed “disbelief” over a 2018 decision to exempt
most of southeastern Wisconsin from federal limits on smog.
Trump disagrees with the facts.
He insists that he has won the argument.
10
Oil Prices Down Year-over-year
From MarketWatch: Oil futures suffer worst weekly performance of the year
Oil futures settled higher Friday, recouping a portion of recent losses,
but a day after posting their biggest one-day loss since December, prices
saw their worst weekly performance of the year.
…
Brent shed 4.6%, while WTI was down by 5.7%, on Thursday — the biggest
daily losses since December. The week’s losses for both were also the
largest year to date.
[image: Oil Prices]*Click on graph for larger image*
The first graph shows WTI and Brent spot oil prices from the EIA. (Prices
today added).
According to... more »
Supply must be exceeding demand.
11
Barr Got More Power to Review the Russia Inquiry. Here’s What We Know About Its Origins.
The attorney general has the power to declassify intelligence agencies’
secrets as he examines the investigation into Russia’s election
interference and ties to Trump associates.
Donald Trump wants to proove the Mueller investigation improper.
Arguing with the facts is unproductive.
12
Iran Slams U.S. After Middle East Troop Buildup Is Announced
Tehran responded with a threat of “two new secret weapons” after the Trump
administration pushed ahead with arms sales and promised to deploy extra
forces.
Bolton is ratteling his saber.
13
Schedule for Week of May 26, 2019
The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, Case-Shiller
house prices, and Personal Income and Outlays for April.
For manufacturing, the May Dallas and Richmond Fed manufacturing surveys
will be released.
*----- Monday, May 27th -----*
All US markets will be closed in observance of *Memorial Day*.
*----- Tuesday, May 28th -----*
[image: Case-Shiller House Prices Indices]9:00 AM: *S&P/Case-Shiller House
Price Index* for March.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted
National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most ... more »
14
Open Thread
Feel free to use the comments to this post discuss topics not covered in
recent posts.
15
Huawei Ban Threatens Wireless Service in Rural Areas
Many small carriers depend on inexpensive equipment from the Chinese
company. Now they must rethink expansion plans, and perhaps replace
existing gear.
The equipment should be on order.
profits may be reduced.
16
On Politics: The Biggest Stories of the Week
It’s been a busy week in American politics. Here are some of the stories
you might have missed.
17
John Bolton Says North Korean Missile Tests Violated U.N. Resolutions
Mr. Bolton said there was “no doubt” that missile tests this month violated
Security Council resolutions. President Trump had earlier downplayed their
importance.
yes
18
In Shift, Trump Will Pick Kenneth Cuccinelli to Oversee Legal Immigration
Mr. Cuccinelli, who was expected to coordinate immigration policy, will
instead be chosen to take over for the embattled head of United States
Citizenship and Immigration Services.
19
E.P.A. Experts Objected to ‘Misleading’ Agency Smog Decision, Emails Show
One agency scientist expressed “disbelief” over a 2018 decision to exempt
most of southeastern Wisconsin from federal limits on smog.
Facts.
20
Oil Prices Down Year-over-year
From MarketWatch: Oil futures suffer worst weekly performance of the year
Oil futures settled higher Friday, recouping a portion of recent losses,
but a day after posting their biggest one-day loss since December, prices
saw their worst weekly performance of the year.
…
Brent shed 4.6%, while WTI was down by 5.7%, on Thursday — the biggest
daily losses since December. The week’s losses for both were also the
largest year to date.
[image: Oil Prices]*Click on graph for larger image*
The first graph shows WTI and Brent spot oil prices from the EIA. (Prices
today added).
According to... more »
Supply must be up.
Barr Got More Power to Review the Russia Inquiry. Here’s What We Know About Its Origins.
The attorney general has the power to declassify intelligence agencies’
secrets as he examines the investigation into Russia’s election
interference and ties to Trump associates.
Trump would like to be not guilty.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1
Supreme Court Blocks Two Rulings Striking Down Voting Maps
Federal courts in Ohio and Michigan had said maps there violated the
Constitution by favoring the party in power.
I cannot predict the Supreme court.
2
Fact-Checking Trump’s Claims on Agriculture, Trade and Poll Numbers
President Trump, at a news conference with farmers and ranchers on
Thursday, made misleading or false statements about agricultural data,
union support of a renegotiated trade deal and his approval ratings.
Trump does not recant his guesses.
3
For Trump’s Japan Trip, Abe Piles on the Flattery. But to What End?
Observers have their doubts about whether a trip filled with flattery will
entice Mr. Trump to cooperate on trade and other matters of Japanese
interest.
Trump does not recant his guesses.
4
Potential Clash Over Secrets Looms Between Justice Dept. and C.I.A.
The attorney general’s ability to declassify intelligence could put at risk
a C.I.A. informant close to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
Burr has a problem.
5
Distorted Videos of Nancy Pelosi Spread on Facebook and Twitter, Helped by Trump
The widely shared videos raised broader concerns about digital manipulation
and disinformation heading into the 2020 campaign.
Trump likes to spread disinformation.
6
Trump Circumvents Congress to Sell Weapons to Middle East Allies
The Trump administration is equipping Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Jordan,
even as the president remains reluctant to increase the number of American
military personnel on the ground.
Trump likes unilateral power.
7
For Trump’s Japan Trip, Abe Piles on the Flattery. But to What End?
Observers have their doubts about whether a trip filled with flattery will
entice Mr. Trump to cooperate on trade and other matters of Japanese
interest.
The Japanese economy is in poor shape.
8
One Republican’s Objection Delays Disaster Relief Bill Once Again
Representative Chip Roy objected to a procedural vote that would have
allowed the House to give its unanimous approval to a disaster aid bill.
Congress is not following Trump's orders.
9
Trump Administration Proposes Rollback of Transgender Protections
The Department of Health and Human Services proposed to roll back Obama-era
protections of transgender people, narrowing the definition of sex for
health care coverage.
The Trump base would be pleased.
10
Q2 GDP Forecasts: Mid 1% Range
From Merrill Lynch:
We lowered *2Q GDP tracking by 0.2pp to 1.6%*, while 1Q remained unchanged
at 2.9% [May 24 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We lowered our *Q2 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +1.3%* and our
past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q1 by one tenth to +3.0% (qoq ar).
[Updated: May 24 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at *1.4% for 2019:Q2*. News from this
week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2019:Q2 by 0.4 percentage
point. Negative surprises from the Advance Durable Goods Report drove mo... more »
Growth is slow.
11
Supreme Court Blocks Two Rulings Striking Down Voting Maps
Federal courts in Ohio and Michigan had said maps there violated the
Constitution by favoring the party in power.
A stay. It will be resolved.
12
Fact-Checking Trump’s Claims on Agriculture, Trade and Poll Numbers
President Trump, at a news conference with farmers and ranchers on
Thursday, made misleading or false statements about agricultural data,
union support of a renegotiated trade deal and his approval ratings.
Trump does not get things right.
13
For Trump’s Japan Trip, Abe Piles on the Flattery. But to What End?
Observers have their doubts about whether a trip filled with flattery will
entice Mr. Trump to cooperate on trade and other matters of Japanese
interest.
Japan is economically troubled.
14
Potential Clash Over Secrets Looms Between Justice Dept. and C.I.A.
The attorney general’s ability to declassify intelligence could put at risk
a C.I.A. informant close to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia
The C.I.A. is independant.
15
Distorted Videos of Nancy Pelosi Spread on Facebook and Twitter, Helped by Trump
The widely shared videos raised broader concerns about digital manipulation
and disinformation heading into the 2020 campaign.
Yes.
16
Trump Circumvents Congress to Sell Weapons to Middle East Allies
The Trump administration is equipping Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Jordan,
even as the president remains reluctant to increase the number of American
military personnel on the ground.
Yes.
17
For Trump’s Japan Trip, Abe Piles on the Flattery. But to What End?
Observers have their doubts about whether a trip filled with flattery will
entice Mr. Trump to cooperate on trade and other matters of Japanese
interest.
It might help.
18
One Republican’s Objection Delays Disaster Relief Bill Once Again
Representative Chip Roy objected to a procedural vote that would have
allowed the House to give its unanimous approval to a disaster aid bill.
Foot dragging.
19
Trump Administration Proposes Rollback of Transgender Protections
The Department of Health and Human Services proposed to roll back Obama-era
protections of transgender people, narrowing the definition of sex for
health care coverage.
A silly move.
20
Q2 GDP Forecasts: Mid 1% Range
From Merrill Lynch:
We lowered *2Q GDP tracking by 0.2pp to 1.6%*, while 1Q remained unchanged
at 2.9% [May 24 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
We lowered our *Q2 GDP tracking estimate by two tenths to +1.3%* and our
past-quarter GDP tracking estimate for Q1 by one tenth to +3.0% (qoq ar).
[Updated: May 24 estimate]
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at *1.4% for 2019:Q2*. News from this
week's data releases decreased the nowcast for 2019:Q2 by 0.4 percentage
point. Negative surprises from the Advance Durable Goods Report drove mo... more »
Slow growth.
||
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