Saturday, May 11, 2019

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1

Trump Sees a China Trade Deal Through a New Prism: The 2020 Election

MARK LANDLER and ANA SWANSON at NYT > Politics - 1 hour ago
The president’s recent statements suggest he now believes that demonstrating his toughness with China and walking away from a deal might well put him in a better position politically than signing one.
 
It is always election time.
 

House Ways and Means Chairman Subpoenas Trump Tax Returns

NICHOLAS FANDOS at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
Richard E. Neal, the panel’s chairman, dropped his use of a century-old provision in the tax code and instead used a more common instrument to demand President Trump’s tax returns: the subpoena.
 
Another court case to moot.
 

Pentagon Builds Deterrent Force Against Possible Iranian Attack

JULIAN E. BARNES and ERIC SCHMITT at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
The Defense Department is deploying an antimissile battery, a limited step taken in part because an intelligence analysis concluded that Iran is trying to provoke the United States into overreacting.
 
The political tactics stink.
The Trump base needs an excuse.
 

Is Andrew Yang ‘Too Nice’ to Beat President Trump?

MATT STEVENS at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
He faced the question again in New Hampshire as Kamala Harris and Joe Biden were ratcheting up their attacks on the president.
 
Win some deligates.
Campaigning should be about policy with excitement.
 

White House Memo: Trump Usually Keeps Loyalists Close. But There Are Some Things He Can’t Forgive.

KATIE ROGERS and MAGGIE HABERMAN at NYT > Politics - 3 hours ago
In President Trump’s world, most sins are eventually forgiven except for one — profiting from his name.
 
Donald Trump maintains his mask.
The Republican party is his codependent.
 

White House Asked McGahn to Declare Trump Never Obstructed Justice

MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
Two requests by presidential advisers show how far the White House has gone to try to push back on accusations that the president obstructed justice.
 
This is Trump's fiction.
 

House Ways and Means Chairman Subpoenas Trump Tax Returns

NICHOLAS FANDOS at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
Richard E. Neal, the panel’s chairman, dropped his use of a century-old provision in the tax code and instead used a more common instrument to demand President Trump’s tax returns: the subpoena.
 
Lawyers are cheaper than loses.
 

Pentagon Shifts $1.5 Billion to Border Wall From Afghan War Budget and Other Military Projects

HELENE COOPER at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
The newest shift in money is in addition to the $1 billion that the Defense Department transferred to wall construction in March from the Army’s personnel budget.
 
Trump is not improving his position.   
Another lawsuit won't help him.
 

HUD Says Its Proposed Limit on Public Housing Aid Could Displace 55,000 Children

ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS and GLENN THRUSH at NYT > Politics - 5 hours ago
The proposal, published on Friday, would prohibit families with at least one undocumented immigrant from obtaining public housing benefits.
 
Punishing poverty does not help.
 
10 

It Is Impossible To Control Corporations Without 90%+ Progressive Tax Rates

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 6 hours ago
Probably 95% on any income over about a million, 90% on anything over 500K, honestly. Dick “Fuld earned about $69.5 million in 2007, the year before Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy in Sept. 2008. From 2000 to 2007, he was awarded about $889.5 million and cashed out about $529 million of that before the company […]
 
Inflation is a tax on money.
I would rather be direct.
 
11 

Mueller Will Not Testify Next Week, but Democrats Are Not Giving Up

EILEEN SULLIVAN and NICHOLAS FANDOS at NYT > Politics - 8 hours ago
“He will come at some point,” said Representative Jerrold Nadler of New York, the chairman of the House Judiciary Committee. “If necessary, we’ll subpoena him.”
 
He will not testify while Trump controls him.
 
12 

Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 9 hours ago
With the ten year yield at 2.45%, and based on an historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 4.4%. As of yesterday, Mortgage News Daily reported: Mortgage Rates Unchanged to Slightly Lower Mortgage rates were just slightly lower on average today with some lenders flat and others distinctly lower. [*30YR FIXED - 4.25%*] emphasis added The graph shows the relationship between the monthly 10 year Treasury Yield and 30 year mortgage rates from the Freddie Mac survey. [image: Mortgage rates and 10 year Treasury Yield]Currently the 10 year Treasury yield is at 2... more » 
 
The banks appear to rate mortgage demand as low.
 
13 

House Approves Disaster Relief and Puerto Rico Aid Over Trump’s Opposition

EMILY COCHRANE at NYT > Politics - 10 hours ago
 
Senate passage and presidential signature are required.
The votes are not there for an override.
 
14 

In her words: The Race to Limit Abortion Access

MAYA SALAM at NYT > Politics - 10 hours ago
Four states have passed “heartbeat bills,” and Alabama is close to banning most abortions completely, a direct challenge to Roe v. Wade.
 
These bills should be struck down. 
 
15 

Cleveland Fed: Key Measures Show Inflation Close to 2% in April

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 13 hours ago
The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.4% annualized rate) in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.0% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report. Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all ur... more » 
 
The Fed will hold.
 
16 

Trump Renews Trade War as China Talks End Without a Deal

ALAN RAPPEPORT and ANA SWANSON at NYT > Politics - 14 hours ago
The president, in a series of tweets, said a prolonged trade war would be good for America even as negotiators returned to the table.
 
There may be trouble.
The farmers will suffer.
 
17 

BLS: CPI increase 0.3% in April, Core CPI increased 0.1%

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 15 hours ago
From the BLS: *The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in April* on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.4 percent in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.0 percent before seasonal adjustment. ... *The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent for the third consecutive month*. ... *The all items index increased 2.0 percent for the 12 months ending April*, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending November 2018. *The index for a... more » 
 
No action from the Fed.
 
18 

Times Insider: Life on the Campaign Trail: Regional Priorities, and Repetitive Jokes

ASTEAD W. HERNDON at NYT > Politics - 17 hours ago
As a national political reporter, I get the opportunity to hear some of America’s most powerful people speak dozens of times.
 
The stump speeches are canned now.
 
19 

Trump Considers Them Terrorists, but Some Are Allies

DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK at NYT > Politics - 17 hours ago
President Trump’s proposal to designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist group risks upsetting American allies from Turkey to Indonesia.
 
Trump does not think.
 
20 

Can the Racial Wealth Gap Be Closed Without Speaking of Race?

EMILY BADGER at NYT > Politics - 17 hours ago
Political momentum on the left for such an effort must face the reality of legal obstacles, particularly from the Supreme Court.
 
A steeply graduated combination of income and wealth taxes is probably the best corrective.
I favor taxes over inflation because of the flat nature of inflation.
 
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