Wednesday, May 1, 2019

@12:34, 4/30/19

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1

Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in February

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 38 minutes ago
Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.0% year-over-year in February It has been over *eleven years* since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 12.4% above the previous bubble peak. *However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 7.7% below the bubble peak *(and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is still 14.5% below the bubble peak. The year-over-year increas... more»
 
More detail on the statistical view would be better.
 
2

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index Increased 3.8% in March

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 2 hours ago
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Climb 3.8% in March Pending home sales rose in March, reversing course from a month prior, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Three of the four major regions saw growth last month, as the Northeast reported a minor slip in contract activity. The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, *increased 3.8% to 105.8 in March*, up from 101.9 in February. *Year-over-year contract signings declined 1.2%, making this the 15th straight month of annual decreases*. ... The PHSI in the Northeast declined 1.... more » 
 

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 4.0% year-over-year in February

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 3 hours ago
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February ("February" is a 3 month average of December, January and February prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. *Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.* From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Shows Annual Gains Continue to Decline The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a *4.0% a... more »
 
CR is working hard for happy numbers.  
 
4

Stacey Abrams Will Not Run for Senate in 2020

ALEXANDER BURNS at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Ms. Abrams declined to challenge Senator David Perdue, one of President Trump’s chief allies in Congress. She had been courted aggressively by national Democrats to run.
 
Winning in Georgia would be a feat.
 

Is America Ready for a Gay President? ‘You’re Going to See the Wall Crumble’

JEREMY W. PETERS at NYT > Politics - 4 hours ago
Raymond Buckley, the chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, talks about Pete Buttigieg and what it means to be gay and married and running for president in 2019.
 
Put Pete Buttigieg in the Senate. 
 

USSR/Russia and America’s Record Interfering In Elections

Ian Welsh at Ian Welsh - 5 hours ago
So, who interferes in other countries elections more? Sadly this database is from 1946 to 2000 (pdf), but it’s still interesting. A total of 117 interventions were made by both countries. The US made 81. 69% of them. the Russians interfered 36 times, for 31% of interventions. Overall 11.9% of all elections during the period […]
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realpolitik
 
Faith does not translate easily. 
 

Trump Pushes to Designate Muslim Brotherhood a Terrorist Group

CHARLIE SAVAGE, ERIC SCHMITT and MAGGIE HABERMAN at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
In a private White House meeting this month, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt urged President Trump to deem his opposition terrorists, officials said.
 
In Sharia there is a death penalty for conversion away from Islam.
 

In a Switch, Some Republicans Start Citing Climate Change as Driving Their Policies

LISA FRIEDMAN at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Driven partly by polls showing voters in both parties — particularly younger ones — are worried about a warming planet, some lawmakers are changing how they talk about climate change.
 
There may be life after Trump.
 

Is America Ready for a Gay President? ‘You’re Going to See the Wall Crumble’

JEREMY W. PETERS at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
Raymond Buckley, the chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, talks about Pete Buttigieg and what it means to be gay and married and running for president in 2019.
 
That is a big leap on a 9% constituency.
Log Cabin Republicans exist.
 
10 

As Buttigieg Builds His Campaign, Gay Donors Provide the Foundation

JEREMY W. PETERS and SHANE GOLDMACHER at NYT > Politics - 6 hours ago
In amassing a small fortune, the South Bend mayor has had the backing of an exuberant L.G.B.T. donor base. But relying on wealthy contributors carries political risk.
 
A small foundation.
 
11 

On Politics: Rod Rosenstein to Step Down

NYT > Politics - 9 hours ago
Mr. Rosenstein will step down as deputy attorney general in mid-May, ending a turbulent tenure overshadowed by the Mueller investigation.
 
No surprises.
 
12 

Asylum Seekers Face New Restraints Under Latest Trump Orders

ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS and CAITLIN DICKERSON at NYT > Politics - 12 hours ago
A presidential memorandum ordered measures that include barring some migrants from pursuing work permits and charging fees on asylum applications.
 
Trump is a sadist.
 
13 

Trump Sues Deutsche Bank and Capital One to Block Compliance With Subpoenas

MAGGIE HABERMAN, WILLIAM K. RASHBAUM and DAVID ENRICH at NYT > Politics - 12 hours ago
The lawsuit, joined by President Trump’s three eldest children and his private company, seeks to stop the banks from giving records to the House’s Intelligence and Financial Services Committees.
 
Delay.
 
14 

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein to Step Down in May

KATIE BENNER at NYT > Politics - 12 hours ago
The No. 2 Justice Department official submitted his resignation letter to President Trump after overseeing the Mueller inquiry through to the end.
 
His job is over. Why wait?
 
15 

Beto O’Rourke Releases $5 Trillion Climate Change Proposal

MAGGIE ASTOR and LISA FRIEDMAN at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
Mr. O’Rourke’s choice to make climate change the first policy focus of his presidential campaign shows just how much the issue has risen among Democrats.
 
A place to start.
 
16 

For the First Time, Trump Gives a Women’s Championship Team Its Own Celebration

KATIE ROGERS at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
The Baylor Lady Bears were the women’s N.C.A.A. champions. Virginia, the men’s N.C.A.A. champions, declined an invitation from Mr. Trump.
 
The writing is on the wall.
 
17 

On Politics With Lisa Lerer: Jonathan Greenblatt, Head of the A.D.L., on the Politics of White Nationalism

LISA LERER at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
In the On Politics newsletter, a chat with Mr. Greenblatt, who leads the Anti-Defamation League, about the recent surge in white supremacy and how politicians can fight it.
 
The racists are with us.  The project is preventing positive feedback.
 
18 

Whitney Biennial Artists Call for Board Member Linked to Tear Gas to Step Down

COLIN MOYNIHAN at NYT > Politics - 15 hours ago
Warren B. Kanders, of the Safariland Group, has been the target of protests since tear gas his company makes was said to have been used at the border.
 
Tear gas is sublethal.
I want to prevent the border policy that requires the application of tear gas.
 
19 

Tuesday: Case-Shiller House Prices, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales

Calculated Risk at Calculated Risk - 17 hours ago
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher, But Volatility Could Increase Mortgage rates moved up today, but at a fairly tame pace in the bigger picture. The rest of the week, however, may not be as tame. There are multiple economic reports on tap with a history of impacting the bond market (which dictates rates). The data gets most serious starting on Wednesday and finally culminates with ... the big jobs report. [*30YR FIXED - 4.25-4.375%*] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 9:00 AM, *S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index* for February. The consensus is for... more » 
 
Optimism should not control.
 
20 

House Democrats Push Barr to Submit to a Lawyer’s Questioning

NICHOLAS FANDOS at NYT > Politics - 19 hours ago
The House Judiciary Committee will vote on whether to allow Republican and Democratic lawyers to question Attorney General William P. Barr, signaling that Democrats are not backing down.

William P. Barr must answer the questions.



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